Lucky 15 February 18th

Friday 4.30pm Cracking Saturday afternoon of National Hunt racing with four good cards at Haydock, Ascot, Wincanton and Gowran Park. Maybe could have done with a few more runners in the handicaps but horses to keep an eye on with regard to Cheltenham are Yanworth in the Kingwell hurdle (2.45 Wincanton) and Jezki (Gowran Park 3.05) re Champion hurdle, Cue Card, Traffic Fluide, Taquin du Seuil etc (Ascot3.35) re Gold Cup/RyanAir and the Ascot 1.15 and Haydock 3.50 may throw up a Neptune/Alfred Bartlett springer! As for the Festival handicaps there is a Pertemps qualifier at Haydock (2.40) and some guilty looking sorts in the wrong race/distance etc such as Mall Dini in the Beginners Chase at Gowran 1.20, Tony Martin has a couple at Haydock etc..

Nice to see, via twitter “Rebecca Curtis has 5 at Ascot tomorrow, her first runners for 17 days. Jonathan Moore rides 4 of them, having not ridden for RC since 14 Dec” chris cook ‏@claimsfive  The Guardian

 Saturday Lucky 15

Ascot 2.25                               VIRAK                                      8/1 general                   

Ascot 3.00                               TEMPLEROSS                          9/2 general

Haydock 3.15                         VIEUX LION ROUGE                13/2 general

Haydock 3.50                         THE WORLDS END                 7/2 general     

and here’s why

Ascot 2.25                               VIRAK  Got a mention in my Ante Post piece yesterday. “I have Virak very much on the radar and think Paul Nicholls has him coming to the boil nicely, is well handicapped and about to land a nice prize over 3m+ on Soft ground. Indeed if he runs in the 2.25 at Ascot on Saturday instead he would carry my money based on his excellent second to Wakanda in the C&D Listed Silver Cup off a mark six pounds higher (Currently 16/1 with PP).” The price has gone but so has most of the opposition, just the seven runners! Sausolito Sunrise was 5lbs lower when winning this year but hasn’t run as well since and I’m not sure those cheek-pieces help, the classy O’Faolains Boy is on the comeback trail again, Tenor Nivernais and Cloudy Too have their best days behind them, Chef D’Oeuvre needs a bog and further though he has a featherweight here and I’d have the Rooneys Go Conquer as the main danger.

Ascot 3.00                               TEMPLEROSS He went up just 3lbs when a well-supported second to Modus in the Lanzarote hurdle at Kempton and it is really hard to get away from that form that has been well franked twice already when the 3^rd Lord of the Island won the Grade 3 handicap hurdle at Sandown and the fifth Kalondra sauntered home in a C2 handicap hurdle at Huntingdon. Add to that Jamie Bargary can claim 3lbs and the excellent form of the Twiston-Davies yard and Templeross has to be a bet. Plenty of dangers but a few to keep an eye on. Two long term absentees, firstly Ordo ab Cheo for Alan King who was really well thought of and had strong novice form including a seventh in the Neptune at the 2015 Festival having won a trial at Cheltenham previously with his Official Rating dropped from 145 to 137 for eighteen months off, secondly Nicky Hendersons Oscar Hoof who has been off for the best part of three years since falling when just 11/2 to win the Grade 1 Mersey hurdle at Aintree. His mark has slipped just 6lbs from OR138 to 132. However the dangers for today are more likely to be Air Force One, winner of two novice hurdles, who Harry Fry sends handicapping for the first time and Divine Spear who was an excellent third to William H Bonney in a C2 handicap hurdle at Cheltenham and Nicky Henderson continues to use Ned Curtis’s 5lb claim and I wonder if connections have one eye on the Martin Pipe at the Festival?

Haydock 3.15                         VIEUX LION ROUGE Put him up in my Ante Post staying chasers treble and I have no reason to change my mind. Thurs. 1pm “Vieux Lion Rouge was an impressive winner of the 3m 2f Becher Chase over the National fences when last seen and we know he jumps and stays, we know that he has a touch of class, he was sixth in that red hot 4m NH chase at Cheltenham. What we don’t know is what shape David Pipe’s Pond House string are in as the aforementioned Becher Chase is the only Graded chase the yard has won for two years and they haven’t been setting Saturdays on fire. How fit will Vieux Lion Rouge be as obviously this season is all about April 8^th and the Grand National itself? As an 8yo I think he is still improving and is a well weighted solid staying chaser and I shall back him at to win at 13/2 with William Hill or BetFred (Was 8/1 when I started writing this piece!).”

Haydock 3.50                         THE WORLDS END I think the in-form connections of Tom George, Adrian Heskin and the McNeill family may have a star on their hands here. Won his bumper at Chepstow last season, was third to Gayebury at Ffos Las on hurdling debut when too keen but has won his next two at Chepstow both times over 2m 3f. The downside is can he transfer that form away from South Wales and how will he cope with the three furlong rise in trip? My answers would be “of course he can” and “he’ll love it”! The upsides of this horse greatly overwhelm any doubts as visually impressive on both winning runs, form that has been confirmed with both the horses who finished second to The Worlds End winning since. Full Irish won a C3 at Leicester beating the likes of Laser Light and Reigning Supreme whilst Testify put away Lough Derg Farmer and Over to Sam. Solid stuff. In both wins The Worlds End jumped, travelled and quickened to put the race to bed and there is not much more you can ask for!

Friday Lucky 15

Frustrating afternoon, especially the first race, and I’m not in the habit of jumping up and down about tipping an even money winner!

Fakenham 2.00                       PRINCE OF STEAL                   UR       10/1

How very annoying! Got no further than the fourth when as half expected Mr Mix failed to complete, Omessa Has ran like a cow and the total rag has obliged at 22/1!

Sandown 2.10                                    POUGNE BOBBI                      5^th        11/10F

Really disappointing. Lost place halfway down back straight, kept on albeit at one pace. Perhaps does need to go back up in trip but will be on a 14lb higher mark!

Sandown 2.40                                    COLINS SISTER                       1^st        Evs        

Gutsy mare who deserves another crack at Grade 1 level but needed every yard of this 2m 4f trip.          Punchestown?

Fakenham 3.00                       RAKTIMAN                             3rd      9/2

Prominent throughout but always pushed along. Led 2 out but no answer to comfortable winner, Rear Admiral.               

               

MONEY TALKS Oldtown point to point winner Flemenshill went to the Tattersalls Cheltenham sales as the talking horse on Thursday and connections were not disappointed as the well bred gelding went through the ring for an incredible £480,000. Hailing from the Colin McKeever and Wilson Dennison team, a duo who have produced a number of high class performers including last year’s Cheltenham Festival winner Yorkhill, plus fellow Grade 1 winners Bellshill and Shaneshill, who all who came through the point-to-point ranks, the son of Flemensfirth becomes the most expensive point to point horse sold at the sales. Partnered by Noel McParlan at Oldtown on February 5th, the four-year-old easily accounted for expensive purchase Defi Bleu (€255,000) who topped last year’s Tattersalls Derby sale for Gordon Elliott and Gigginstown House Stud. The horse is out of the unraced Dr Massini mare Southern Skies, who has produced four winners from six runners and is a half sister to Strong Flow, a six-time winner which included the Grade 3 Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury and the Grade 1 Feltham Novices” Chase at Kempton in 2003. He will now join Colin Tizzard’s stable of stars.

Other notable sales for point to point graduates include Paul Cashman’s Kilfeacle winner On The Blind Side bought for £205,000 goes to Nicky Henderson for Alan Spence, Getareason who finished second in the Punchestown four-year-old maiden on Sunday for Warren Ewing sold to Harold Kirk/Willie Mullins for £140,000, James Doyle’s Bitingthebullet who finished ahead of Getareason going to Evan Williams for £170,000 and Warren Ewing’s Sending Love, a Kirkistown winner last Saturday, also going to Harold Kirk/Willie Mullins for £130,000. Ex-Irish point to point graduates sold for a combined total of £1,945,000 on Thursday. Get them in the Tracker!

Lucky 15 January 13th

5pm Considering it’s snowing, half the training fraternity are in the Caribbean and many of the decent horses had their flu jab on January 2^nd the cards at Warwick and Kempton ain’t bad at all, trust me they WILL both go ahead.

Disappointed Valseur Lido joins Don Cossack and Coneygree in missing the Gold Cup at Cheltenham. John Cornwall must be doing his sums and considering supplementing Flichity and/or The Jugopolist!

 Saturday’s chosen few!

Warwick 1.50             AMERICAN                 4/1 PP 7/2 general

Kempton 2.40            KALONDRA                 12/1 PP 10/1 general

Warwick 3.35             ONE FOR ARTHUR      10/1 Coral 9/1 general

Kempton 3.45            RIVER FROST              7/4 general

 and here’s why

 Warwick 1.50             AMERICAN What a cracking Listed three mile novice chase this is. Run well here and you could be looking at the RSA or 4m NH Chase at Cheltenham or the Midlands National the Saturday after. I am a huge fan of American and although trainer Harry Fry describes the horse as “fragile” I think he oozes class. 3m on winter ground, a stiff jumping test and Noel Fehily in the saddle are absolutely ideal.

In the Tub isn’t good enough. Chef D’Oeuvre will love the ground but this could really test his jumping, solid handicapper down the line. I have Mystical Knight on my shortlist for the 4m NH chase and Pobbles Bay likewise for the Midlands National, so victory for either wouldn’t surprise me. Champers on Ice has the sexy form, he was third in the 2016 Alfred Bartlett at the Cheltenham Festival behind UnowhatImeanharry but he’ll have to jump better than he did on fencing debut if he is to live up to trainer David Pipe’s RSA expectations.

Kempton 2.40            KALONDRA When I had a good look at this race on Tuesday I backed Lisheen Prince @ 12/1 (now non-runner) and Jaleo @ 10/1. However having revisited it this morning I’m drawn to Neil Mulhollands charge Kalondra. The horse has been winning and rising up the ratings but he’s a hold up horse and you never know much they have in hand but it’s the jockey booking that really swung it as Richard Johnson is ideal for this type of horse.

All the money in the last 48 hours has been for Chesterfield, who like Jaleo is an ex-Godolphin horse who used to be trained by John Ferguson, down from 33/1 to 10/1 but I’m not a fan of either trainer or jockey, four winners from 79 runners since 1^st October.

Richard Johnson Betway blog “I’ve got another ride for Neil in the big race of the day, the Lanzarote Hurdle (2.40pm). Kalondra won well last time at Ascot and has a progressive profile. It helps that Old Guard has stayed in to keep the weights down and I hope my horse can run a good race in what is always a very competitive handicap.”

Warwick 3.35             ONE FOR ARTHUR Had a look at this race on Tuesday as well and backed One for Arthur at 14/1 and Viva Steve at 10/1. I was at Cheltenham for Paddy Power day in 2015 when One for Arthur kept on behind Vicente (Scottish National) and Un Temps Pour Tout (Cheltenham handicap winner) and Blaklion fell (RSA winner) in a 3m handicap and noting Lucinda Russell could have a National type on her hands, she was a long way from home. He kept good company for the rest of last season without winning but won over an extended 3m2f at Kelso before running a solid fifth to Vieux Lion Rouge in the Becher chase over the National fences. To use one of my favourite phrases, tomorrow I think all his ducks are in line. Heavy in the going, extreme distance and a stiff jumping test. Derek Fox knows the horse well and hopefully won’t make the hold-up tactics too exaggerated. Looking to top my win with a further each way single tomorrow, looking for five places!

Viva Steve may have found the ground has gone against him. I can understand the market support for Shotgun Paddy and Ballycross but the former hasn’t won since this race two years ago although he has continually dined at the top table of staying handicaps and as for the latter it’s a big ask for a 6yo even with his light weight.

Kempton 3.45            RIVER FROST Wasn’t top of my list at first glance but there are an awful lot of question marks over the opposition. River Frost is inexperienced but improving and OR123 may underestimate his talents. On hurdling debut he was an excellent third to Apasionada and Lisheen Prince, despite running green. He won at Plumpton looking much more professional and Barry Geraghty (sigh now!) rides him, as he did in his previous two races.

Now the rest. Ozzie the Oscar stopped as shot last time, if he wins expect to hear the words “wind-op”! Meet the Legend was my selection in the Lanzarote but he needs to settle before I go in again. He wears a hood and a tongue tie! Allee Bleue has beaten just three horses out of thirty in his last two races and Richard Johnson leaves him to the 7lb claiming stable amateur. As for the other Dan Skelton runner, Ashoka, since coming off the Flat in Ireland he’s been fancied in some decent company but has run to suggest he’s pronounced a-shocker! I can’t have Artifice Sivola, dual winner at Fakenham which means the main danger could be New Member.

Dan Skelton Coral blog “3.45 Kempton – Ashoka has been off for a while. He actually fractured his pelvis going to the first hurdle at Sandown last year. I’ve done plenty with him and he’s been jumping nicely but this is a chance to see how he is back on the track and where he stands.

I really fancied Meet The Legend at Ascot last time. We dropped him in that day and he wasn’t that comfortable doing that, and he was just too keen. I do think he is a progressive horse but we need to see him settle better.”

Richard Johnson Betway blog “My final ride of the day is Ozzie The Oscar in the handicap hurdle (3:35pm). We’ve no idea why he ran so disappointingly at Newbury last time.”

As for the rest of the weekend keep an eye on Mount Mews in the Wetherby 12.30, if the meeting goes ahead. Smarter than the average Northern novice hurdler. There is a Neptune trial at Warwick where something beginning with G will win it and I hope Peregrine Run gets caught out by the ground and the connections run him in the Coral Cup! Please? Otherwise it’s eyes on Punchestown where Crack Mome will put his Supreme credentials on the line in the G2 Moscow Flyer but he has two worthy opponents in Dr Mikey and Runfordave. Willie Mullins also has Kolumbus, a never nearer second to Bacardys, in the maiden hurdle at 2.45 and Bachasson in the beginners chase at 12.25 up against last season’s Pertemps Final winner, Mall Dini. As for a bet you could do worse than have an each way tickle in the 1.35 on It Came To Pass @ 8/1.

 Not exactly big and clever but they both won! Returned £36.52 to a tenner.

Huntingdon 1.50        BURBANK       4/6      1st

Impressive winner of his bumper and the beaten here by Glaring on his hurdling debut when hassled from two out and then got mugged. Hopefully he’ll be wiser this time.

Huntingdon 3.20        OO SEVEN      6/5      1st

When he won at Cheltenham my notebook says” this is a serious horse”. Didn’t stay the 3 miles last time and he is a better horse going right-handed. I cannot believe he is in a handicap.

The double currently pays a bit better than 5/2 (William Hill).