Wednesday October 17th

Posted 11.40am

This started off as a quick e-mail to a mate and it’s ended up as an essay!

Over coffee this morning I had a further peruse of today’s cards and Wetherby throws up a whole load of questions especially with horses running for yards I didn’t expect.

2.10 3yo Hurdle Looks above average C4 northern contest with Something Brewing useful on debut and Alan King, who likes this division, having a runner should be the yardstick.

2.45 Has Cyrius Morviere learnt to jump as he has some tasty hurdling form? George/Heskin may have a useful tool in Minella Aris (OR139)?

3.15 Hello Bertie steps up in trip for Jefferson/Hughes?

#FantasticMrFahey runs Judge Earle, Mr Liam Quinlan interests me?

3.45 Bobby Renton C3 Chase – Katgary is ex-Nicholls, Mr Quinlan again riding this time for Pauline Robson. Straidnahanna for the Smiths promised more in his younger days, OR136 may very much underestimate his talent? Ballotin is the only horse Hobbs has sent from Minehead to Wetherby, however it is owner ridden by Mr David Maxwell who certainly has more money than talent, I just can’t back ANYTHING he rides! Ex French (G.Macaire), eleven time winner (the 6yo has already had 28 runs under rules!), first run in UK off a French handicap mark (French handicapper could be Santa Claus for number gifts he hands out especially to 4yo’s!) of OR139 in this 0-140 contest. Any other jockey and I would back Ballotin!

4.20 Sue Smith runs two, Smooth Stepper and of course, No Planning. Both are friendless in the market so far! The Lithuanian and his YTS cronies (Ladbrokes) put them both in at 4/1 last night, SS now 13/2, NP now 15/2.

4.55 Nicholas Chauvin is ex-Nicky Henderson that James Moffatt paid just £8,500 for.

5.25 Loads of interest in this C3 2m handicap hurdle. Sadly the 10yo Ballyalton is a non-runner (Going, not soft enough?), Seamour is two from two over hurdles (back in 2014) and this is his handicap debut off OR131, Top Ville Ben is ex-Henderson that cost Kirby £32K and OR130 is competitive with Sam Twiston Davies booked. Top Ville Ben was bred by someone in Ireland who I communicate with on Twitter and much as we all await this son of Beneficial jumping a fence, having had a run on the flat 32 days agoI’ve had a small each way play at 11/1.

Idder is ex-Varian, Master of Finance is ex-Johnston, Tyrell is ex-Alan King!! Utility for Jonjo is ex-“the Lads”, Intense Tango for John Quinn has some great form if you go back twelve months, Keep in Line, Alan King for the Rooneys, has been placed in Graded races as a novice.

If this race doesn’t throw up a bucket full of winners I’ll be amazed!!!!!!!!!!

 

Probably not surprised coffee took me a little bit longer than usual!

 

Elsewhere Petit Mouchoir makes his chasing debut at Punchestown 4.10. I’d guess he’ll be the highest rated hurdler going novice chasing this season, OR160!!

Campeador (fell at last in that red hot Fred Winter of 2016) and Tully East, a Barry Connell “job” horse, meet over hurdles at Punchestown 2.35. Both could be Spring Festival players.

 

As for my beloved Flat a whole load of novice/maidens to keep an eye on, Nottingham and especially at Kempton tonight. Would have backed Fille de Reve in the 7.15K but not at odds on.

So my only other bet of the day is Jamie Spencer for Brian Meehan on Mutarakez in the C3 10F handicap Nottingham 3.35. Drawn in 14 isn’t great, but this horse was on my radar earlier in the season for those big straight mile handicaps, so he is up to 10F, down 8lbs, wasn’t far off Thundering Blue at Sandown and Nottingham has a long straight for young Jamie to work his hold up magic on! Couldn’t get the 25’s, snaffled some 16’s, at 11.30am top price 11’s with WH.

Not bad fare for a Wednesday!

Didn’t set out to write an essay I had better blog it I suppose!

Time for a fag and back to those pesky 2yo’s and some serious profiling!

Enjoy, absolutely buzzing,

Simon

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Saturday October 14th Star* Special

Posted Friday 13th 6.15pm

3:15  York   6f   Coral Sprint Trophy Handicap   (Class 2)   (3yo+ 0-105) Good ITV 

It says it’s a handicap but there is only 8lbs top to bottom, so this in effect a 6F 97-105 banded race. A fact I will come back too. You could make a case for just about every one of the twenty runners but I will restrict myself to just four.

FLYING PURSUIT No trouble with ground, grade and trip. A course and distance winner in cracking form and gets on really well with 3lb claimer Rachel Richardson. Having won off OR84 and OR90 and it will need to be a career best to win here and drawn 15 increases the difficulty.

UPSTAGING Very consistent in-form C2 6F sprinter whose style of running, just behind the leaders, should be suited by York. Upstaging was an excellent third in the Stewards Cup and makes his first trip “up north” having done most of his racing at the likes of Windsor and Goodwood. Will need to be special to win from stall 20 and father John Egan takes over from his 3lb claiming son David.

HOOF IT Twice he has gone into my Notebook this season and I don’t put many 10yo’s in! He runs York well coming from off the pace, 6F is his trip, no problem with the ground and he is ridden by the yards 7lb claimer Harrison Shaw which in a tight handicap like this is a big plus. Hoof It should be fresh as this is only his fourth run of the season and stall 6 is as good as it gets.

RAUCOUS The handicapper has dropped him five pounds in one chunk, connections have left the headgear off. He was my selection for the Stewards Cup and he rocks up here off seven pounds less at a double figure price. He has Group race form as a 2 and 3yo, won on the sand in a C2 Conditions to open his 4yo season but nothing since although not always had the rub of the green with ground, draw or both.

#FantasticMrFahey runs three. Growl back at his best would have to go close, Mr Lupton will be a big challenge for 7lb claimer Sebastian Woods. He is an extreme hold up horse who has been finessed to victory by the likes of Jamie Spencer and Gerard Mosse. Eastern Impact is down another three pounds but earned his high mark at Newmarket.

Hoof It             One star* each way @ 18/1 BF

Raucous           One star* each way @ 18/1 PP + WH

 

2:05 York The Coral App Handicap  (Class 2)  (3yo+ 0-110)  1m2f56y Good ITV

Just the thirteen runners but I’m quite happy to take on the favourite Chelsea Lad who was fourth in the Cambridgeshire just a fortnight ago, is up a pound and has had an up and down season. Others I can’t have include Linguistic who has been beaten four times off OR103 and I see no reason for it not to be five, Big Country was impressive in winning on the AW at Kempton and won a C3 over course and distance off OR99 with a 7lb claimer on and I think the handicapper well and truly has him.

Many of these have been beaten off todays handicap mark, Empress Ali doesn’t look good enough (C3), Weekend Offender is inconsistent and did me no favours in the Cambridgeshire last week, Azari is back down 2f in trip whereas Hibou moves in the opposite direction. Dark Red goes close without lighting that cigar, although the first time blinkers could do the trick, Master Carpenter needs some overnight rain but is almost back to his last winning mark.

I’m going with a bit of a flyer. Kevin Ryan had his yard closed for six weeks mid-season and I’ve no idea how much each horse was affected if at all. I do know that on his 2yo form Syphax is (was?) a class horse, good enough for Godolphin to buy him. His second to Forest Ranger to open his 3yo campaign was promising, he was outclassed in the Dante, no show behind Beat the Bank at HQ after the quarantine period and did a lot early in a course handicap ending a one paced 7th. He’s at the bottom of the limited handicap here, better drawn in stall 4, steps up to 10F, drops two pounds off his handicap mark, is ridden by the ever reliable Kevin Stott and sports first time cheek-pieces.

All that should eke some improvement and Good ground, 10F, C2 handicap look suitable conditions.

Syphax             One star* each way @ 11/1

 

3.40 Newmarket  2m2f   (Row)   Betfred Cesarewitch Handicap (Heritage Handicap)   (Class 2)   (3yo+) ITV 

The more I look at this race the more my enthusiasm wanes. There are too many serious unknowns over factors such as fitness of the NH horses, how many will genuinely stay the 18F trip, how many will act on this quicker ground? The Mullins trio worry me so I will just go for three against the field and keep it brief.

EUCHEN GLEN Is unexposed at this longer staying trip, won last time out at Ascot and Jim Goldie knows the time of day!

ENDLESS ACRES was an excellent second to Thomas Hobson at Royal Ascot, definitely stays and has been saved for this race by Charlie Fellowes.

BYRON FLYER dual trainer Ian Williams is in good form and this regular bridesmaid may have her ideal conditions in an extreme trip, good ground, low draw.

Euchen Glen                One Star* win @ 20/1 general

Endless Acres              One Star* win @ 16/1 general

Byron Flyer                 One Star* win @ 22/1 Ladbrokes

Thursday October 12th Triskaidekaphobia?

Posted 6.15pm Thursday October 12th

Should we have a fear of Friday the thirteenth? With Newmarket all about level weight contests, mainly for the girls, and York top heavy with handicaps, winners won’t be easy to find but with both meetings due to be run on Good ground hopefully excuses will be in short supply and the form should be solid.

Newmarket’s card opens with an impossible 5F handicap.

However the second race is full of interest, the G3 Oh So Sharp Stakes over 7F for 2yo fillies. The likes of Dark Rose Angel and Gavota have solid G2 form whilst Butterscotch represents Aiden O’Brien. I am a big fan of Dark Rose Angel who was just caught by Laurens at Doncaster in the May Hill and steps back a furlong here and Frankie Dettori takes over in the saddle. There are plenty of improvers lurking in this field and one I was impressed with when she beat Blanchefleur and Fille de Reve on debut was Herecomesthesun. A daughter of Invincible Spirit she cost £140K and represents Archie Watson and Eddie Greatrex who are two men very definitely in a hurry. Herecomesthesun travelled, lengthened and put her head down and just struck me as a filly who wants to please and that there was more to come. With BetFred offering four places at a fifth I thought there was some each way mileage at 20/1.

The G2 3yo+ 7F Challenge Stakes is all about how you feel about last year’s 6F July Cup winner, Limato at 7/4. Double G1 winner but is he the same horse this season? I’m happy to take him on and I promised myself that as soon as he was Ballydoyle’s “first choice” and Ryan Moore was on board I would back Cougar Mountain. This time last season he won the G2 Joel Stakes and was fifth in this race last year when sent off 10/3 favourite. He has been on the go since February in Doha, has run at 6, 7 and 8F, often on unsuitable Soft ground but hopefully HQ will have dried out, 7F is his best trip, no 3lb penalty this year and at 16/1 with William Hill (20/1 SkyBet on-line) I am willing to play each way.

The G1 2yo Fillies mile looks an O’Brien benefit with Happily, Magical and September. I wonder with no Soft in the going could September show her true colours as seen at Ascot and outrun the 15/2 being offered by Ladbrokes. Probably best to follow the money as “the lads” rarely get it wrong.

The 4.10 Old Rowley Cup over 12F for 3yo’s I’ve covered in my previous blog putting forward Duke of Bronte and Humble Hero as the likely winner. The 7F 2yo fillies maiden will be strictly Notebook only. The closing 10F Fillies Lisited Pride Stakes has Architecture at the top of the market but I think the 3yo’s Natavia, Ouja and Uae Queen can shake her up especially in receipt of four pounds but which one? At 20/1 with PP the improving Uae Queen could be the each way play.

With the exception of the staying 3yo handicap, covered in my previous blog, the York card looks of the “too difficult” category. Zap in the nursery, Zwayyan in the 8F handicap and Venturous in the sprint handicap catch my eye but with no conviction.

Jumps fans will no doubt be keeping tabs on the novice chases at Newton Abbot and the C2 handicap hurdle could be informative.

Saturday’s cards need some further research although my Cesarewitch shortlist is Euchen Glen, Endless Acres and Byron Flyer. The Dewhurst looks like Expert Eye’s to lose but I’m going to take a deeper look at the 6F Coral Sprint Trophy and the C2 10F handicap, both at York, and I’ll blog all three tomorrow.

Thursday October 12th 2.15pm

Two excellent days flat racing await with York and Newmarket both racing on Friday and Saturday. So here is a closer look at two excellent 3yo staying handicaps for Friday.

3.55 York Unibet Handicap 1m6f (1m5f188y) Unibet Handicap (Class 2) (3yo) 13 OCT 2017 ITV4

A competitive 3yo handicap over 14F on Good to Soft (Good in places) ground and indeed it was only seven weeks ago at the Ebor Festival they ran the Melrose Handicap (3yo’s Ebor) over the course and distance on Good ground. Two return, York specialist William Haggas saddles The Grand Vizir, who was fifth to Secret Number, and did best of those who had raced prominently although there has to be a question mark about his stamina although Haggas said: “The Grand Visir ran a very good race in the Melrose. He hasn’t run since but he’s in good form and we’ve had this race in mind for a while.” Dominating has had three runs for Mark Johnston since (does that man have any gallops?), has won over 16F and is up nine pounds.

John Gosden saddles two of the three top weights. Face the Facts is a dour stayer, chinned at Haydock over 14F on Heavy ground but impressive in beating Nearly Caught in what looked a “cheap” Listed 16F race at HQ. He has been put up 11lbs for that which with the drop in trip makes this a big ask. A hungry Rob Havlin rides. Robert Tart gets the leg up on Joshua Reynolds who although sent off 11/4 favourite was well behind Face the Facts at Haydock and “jockey Jim Crowley reported that JOSHUA REYNOLDS, unplaced, was never travelling” BHA Maybe the 8lb rise prior to that run and up to C2 caught him out.

Godolphin have Gold Star who has won the last two of three starts but he went up a whopping 13lbs for winning a C3 handicap on the Tapeta at Wolverhampton! David Egan takes off three pounds and the cliché is “he could be anything”! Brimham Rocks isn’t guaranteed to stay but is bred to do so and some more rain wouldn’t go amiss and of the other seven six won last time out! The one who didn’t is Je Suis Charlie who looks best suited to sharp courses, which the Knavesmire certainly isn’t!

So which is the improver, who will get the trip on ground just the soft side of Good. Count Simon is 7lbs wrong in the handicap and went up 11lbs for winning a C5 handicap. Percy’s Word won over 16F on the AW and is two from three starts but others look sharper. Star of the East is another Johnston runner who has run seven times in the last ten weeks, so God knows what it will do today! Career high mark and probably needs Soft ground or worse. Bolder Bob is an improver and his trainer David Barron said: “He’s a horse that has progressed all year. He has won twice over a mile and a half and he’s looking as though he’s crying out for a step up in trip. I would hope the race would suit him well. Easy ground helps him. As far as we’re concerned, we wouldn’t want the ground to dry out too much.” Up two furlongs, two grades and 7lbs is a big leap.

So that gives me two against the field. Fools and Kings cost loose change, has only run four times, winning twice, won his maiden on the AW over 9½F and more recently a C4 12F handicap at Chepstow. However when winning last time out he travelled sweetly, ran green as grass when asked but lengthened and the further he went the better he looked. He is trained by Robyn Brisland, who I think is a shrewd cookie, and ridden by Hollie Doyle, who in my book is worth every pound of her three pound claim. So this an improving, raw, traveller, with gears who goes to post with just 7st 11lb on his back? One star* each way @16/1 WH 123 ¼

However I can’t believe Star Rock has gone up just 5lbs to OR85 for winning a C3 12F handicap at HQ, coming back from a four month break. She raced keenly throughout and looked in trouble at the furlong pole but found extra to pull away from Cribb’s Causeway, who has won a C2 handicap since. In her previous race in May, a 12F maiden at Newmarket on Good to soft, she won by half a length beating God Given who has since won at Listed and G3 since and is currently rated OR105.

She races prominently, a bonus at York, she should be fresh as this is only her fourth start this season, the step up to 14F should be in her favour as her dam, a daughter of Galileo, was beaten only a short head in the G2 14F Park Hill and her half-brother Star Rider won over 16F, carrying only 8st 2lbs she gets upwards of six pounds from the “sexier” colts and a train-stopping nineteen pounds from Face the Facts and trainer Hughie Morrison has had two winners in the past week. I have only two concerns, firstly the jockey Keiran O’Neill, who Morrison has used before and presumably rides as Robert Winston can’t do the weight and Josephine Gordon is at Newmarket for a ride in a Group race and secondly the mysterious “bounce” factor that I can do nothing about! Two stars** each way @10/1 PP 123 ¼

 

SSS.. 4.10 Newmarket bet365 Old Rowley Cup Handicap

(Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) 1m4f (Row) (3yo) 13 OCT 2017 ITV4

 

This is a cracking 3yo handicap over 12F and there are plenty at the top of the market I am quite keen to take on.

High End looked good on the AW with group race potential but seems to have got to OR102 without beating much and was disappointing at Yarmouth last time out and now sports first time cheek-pieces. Godolphin also have First Nation but he was beaten off this mark OR95 in a C3 last time and surely there are others better in. Melting Dew was on my 3yo’s to follow list at the start of the season and with the Moore/Stoute axis will have plenty of supporters but even with headgear of some type I just don’t think he is genuine, talented yes but those recent form figures since winning of 32622 bother me. Another talented colt is John Gosden’s Crowning Glory who still has plenty to prove as his only wins this season were in a C5 Nottingham maiden and a Windsor C4 handicap and the booking of Ted Durcan hardly inspires. Frankie Dettori rides Intrepidly for Jeremy Noseda but is another that was beaten off this mark last time and his only win was a C4 Windsor handicap. A few more to get the red pen are the two at the bottom of the weights, Medalla D’Oro (despite just 7st 11lb) and Winston C, as not good enough and the latter and Koeman are probably best on the AW. Mark Johnston saddles two and although Bear Valley is another from the yard having his eleventh run of the season (who knows?) but a case could be made for Hochfield who sluiced home over 14F here at HQ in a C2 on quick ground but could get outpaced here.

The key bit of form is the C2 Appletiser handicap ran at Ascot over 12F on Soft ground when Duke of Bronte beat Melting Dew with First Nation fifth and Torcello sixth. Melting Dew is four pounds better off for a neck but I can’t have the runner up for the reasons above. Likewise First Nation doesn’t strike me as a winner but Torcello has strolled away with a C2 12F handicap over course and distance since and although beaten just short of four lengths at Ascot he is two pounds better in. However I see no reason why Duke of Bronte with the excellent George Wood keeping the ride and claiming three pounds shouldn’t beat those three again. My notebook has also come round to this horse.

DUKE OF BRONTE Amazing horse! Half-brother to Taws, both out of Reaf. Rod Millman has had 210 Flat runners in 2017 and is +£83.88 to a £ level stake, without this horse he would be-£32.12! Millman has run about forty horses this year and DoB accounts for 30% of total earnings. He has won at 100/1, 10/1 and 16/1. Won twice on good to firm and then hacks up on Good to Soft. Has won at Newbury twice, flat galloping left handed track and Ascot, stiff, sharp corners, right handed track with a straight half the length! Won handicaps off OR81 and OR84 and is still only on OR89.

Didn’t run as a 2yo and gelded before setting foot on a racecourse. Two dismal runs on the AW in March and April then pops up at 100/1 at Newbury beating Musical Terms in a C4 8F Maiden with the now OR96 rated Archetype back in fourth. One paced 6th behind Defoe in a C2 10F handicap at Newbury then a staying on fourth to Galactic Prince in a 12F C4 at Goodwood before popping up at 10/1 in a 12F C3 at Newbury. Struggled over 14F at Sandown in a C3 when beaten fourteen lengths, fourth of five behind Joshua Reynolds, then up he pops at Ascot on Soft in a C2 over 12F at 16/1! Totally uncomplicated horse. Travels, quickens, sticks his neck out! Two stars** each way @12/1 PP 1234 ¼

The main danger is Humble Hero and as the red hot William Haggas (9 from 43 last 14 days) could have run The Grand Vizir and/or Mam’Selle his chance has to be respected. Unraced as a 2yo, he has won two of his five starts including last time out a C3 12 ½ F handicap at Newcastle. He seems progressive, the drying ground in Suffolk is a big plus, 12F looks his trip and the booking of Andrea Atzeni is a boost. One star* win @ 15/2 WH

Saturday 7th October Lucky 15

Posted Friday 6th October 6.45pm

After Last Saturday’s heady success seven days on I’ve gone for singles in the totescoopp6 Challenge Cup at Ascot and the totepool 2yo Trophy at Redcar with a Lucky 15 elsewhere and a little each way single.

Ascot 3.35 totescoop6 Challenge Cup C2 7F Handicap

Right let’s get stuck into this tasty puzzle. First glance says we are dealing with a bunch of old friends! Plenty with “chances” but who can actually win it? Second thought was I want a high draw as they are only using half the straight course and the quickest way home will be up the stands rail. BUT using only half of the straight course (stands side) only applies to 2.5F from home and then it is full width and watching today they raced down the middle then could challenge anywhere but shied away from the stands rail.

Top of the market are two horses who could easily be Group horses masquerading in a handicap. Makzeem won comfortably last week but is up 6lbs, Shoemark replaces Moore and it was only seven days ago. Mojito is definitely a Group horse and this is his first go against his elders but if you are happy with 5/1 don’t let me put you off.

Birchwood has Mosse not Spencer but doesn’t look a winner, Arcanada’s best form is on a flat track like York and I’m no fan of Paddy Pilley even claiming 5lbs, Mjjack will be thereabouts but has gone up without winning, it’s not wet enough for Mitchum Swagger nor far enough for Withernsea so I have come up with a short list of three.

It has to include Mojito, then secondly Firmament. He has run well all season over C&D coming late for somewhere around fifth BUT he remains on a high mark of OR109 whereas those around him have risen up the weights. Just wish it was Tudhope not Makin but if the cards fall right and he gets going a little earlier?? However the selection is STRAIGHT RIGHT. A relative new kid to these events he represents the Leicester FC chairman (Beat the Bell, Donjuan Triumphant etc.) and an in form Andrew Balding. His running on third to Johnny Barnes at Goodwood on only his second start for the yard since transferring from France, where he had run Al Wukair to less than four lengths in a G3, really caught my eye. Oisin Murphy has ridden him in both his UK starts and will know what he has got and Ascots stiff 7F on Good to soft ground is ideal.

Straight Right Two Stars** each way @ 12/1 general BF 5 places

 

Redcar 3.20 totepool 2yo Trophy 6F

Big field, big prize, few contenders!

According to the official handicapper this should be all about Richard Fahey’s Darkanna but she has just looked to be crying out for 7F and even on Good to Soft the race could be over before she hits top stride. Musley Bank also has Crownthorpe but is another stepping back in trip. I don’t think De Bruyne Horse has improved but a case could be made for Never Back Down and Red Roman but both have to give twelve pounds to the filly FLYING SPARKLE and I think that is a big ask.

On yesterday’s blog I tacked on profiles of two 2yo contests run at Yarmouth’s three day Festival that I thought would throw up some winners. Well here is the first opportunity to test the fillies form Flying Sparkle was beaten a length by Beauty Filly who trainer William Haggas rates highly and I think could be an OR90+ filly. She will race prominently, she will go on the ground, she will get 6Fand the icing on the cake is a recharged Hayley Turner in the saddle, as she was for the filly’s winning debut. Why isn’t she working for ITV on a Saturday?

Flying Sparkle Two Stars** each way @ 12/1 general PP 5 places WH 4 places

Saturdays Lucky 15

Newmarket 2.40                    PERSUASIVE                           @ 11/4 BF 5/2 general

Redcar 3.55                            LAHORE                                  @ 15/8 BF+PP

Redcar 4.30                            RASHFORD’S DOUBLE                @ 7/1 general

Newmarket 5.35                    EBBESBOURNE                       @ 7/2 PP 3/1 general

Saturday Star* Selections ( 17 stars* Out)

Newmarket 2.40                    PERSUASIVE                           Three Star*** win @ 11/4 BF 5/2 general

Redcar 3.55                            LAHORE                                  Two Star** win @ 15/8 BF+PP

Redcar 4.30                            RASHFORD’S DOUBLE                        One Star* win @ 7/1 general

Newmarket 5.35                    EBBESBOURNE                       One Star* win @ 7/2 PP 3/1 general

Redcar 3.20                            FLYING SPARKLE        Two stars** each way @ 12/1 general PP 12345 WH 1234

Ascot 3.35                               STRAIGHT RIGHT        Two Stars** each way @ 12/1 general BF 5 places

Newmarket 4.25                    SOUL SILVER                           One Star* each way @ 16/1 PP 14/1 general

 

and here is why

 

Fridays Lucky 15

Newmarket 2.40                    PERSUASIVE I think this is a Group 1 filly, she was hugely progressive as a 3yo and I think she has improved each run this season, especially using Roly Poly as a guide and it seems they won’t be leaving anything out on the track if this is to be her last hoorah. 8F and Good ground are ideal and no reason Newmarket shouldn’t suit.

Chris Richardson (owner Cheveley Park managing director), Persuasive: “It’s been a little bit frustrating with her, but she goes there in great form and we’ll roll the dice. We felt she was a bit unlucky because of the draw and the slow pace in Ireland last time. This race gives her one last opportunity to get that Group One win on the board. Mr and Mrs Thompson (Cheveley Park owners) will make the final decision on whether this will be her final run, but I suspect it will be and it would be great if she can go out in a blaze of glory.”

Redcar 3.55                            LAHORE Anyone who saw Lahore win at Doncaster will know that this horse is no handicapper! Held up in rear with the handbrake firmly on, when de Sousa offered him some daylight he scythed through the 3yo field, led at the furlong pole and was gone! Won by four lengths eased down. Trainer Roger Varian makes a solid case for sticking with his charge “Lahore was most impressive when winning at Doncaster last month and while this requires another step forward, he is lightly-raced with a progressive profile. These conditions – a flat, straight 7f with some ease in the ground – are virtually identical to those under which he won at the St Leger Meeting and I would expect him to put up a bold show on his first run at this level.”

However he has some interesting rivals today. Don’t Touch hasn’t followed up his stellar 3yo season and trainer Richard Fahey sounds disappointed, “….we know he’d be competitive here if back on song. We’ve put the blinkers on to see if they spark a revival.” If #FantasticMrFahey is disappointed with Don’t Touch it is frustration with Stamp Hill, “We’ve kept him back for the big handicaps but he keeps getting balloted out despite being rated 99. It’s amazing.” Godolphin’s Yattwee is a talented horse yet to truly deliver. This looks like a shot to nothing, if he wins happy days, if not down a couple of pounds and off OR100 he looks well handicapped! He is actually in the 8F Balmoral handicap (20/1) at Ascot on Champions Day and this race may be to just take the fizz out of him.

There are two 3yo fillies at the bottom trying to steal cheap Black Type. One of them, Caridade, is on my radar after the York Ebor Festival, but both are surely out of their depth here.

Redcar 4.30                            RASHFORD’S DOUBLE I think the clue may be in the race title here, “RACING UK STRAIGHT-MILE SERIES FINAL HANDICAP”. More than once against Rashfords Double’s name I have written “straight course” and I think OR81 is a winning mark, SDS has been booked and he could just boss this horse into action and I share the views of trainer #FantasticMrFahey, “seems to be running himself back into form. His best efforts have been on the all-weather but he does handle cut in the ground on turf and the Racing UK Straight-Mile Series Final Handicap isn’t as competitive as it could have been for a £20,000 pot.”

Newmarket 5.35                    EBBESBOURNE Sir Michael Stoute trains this lightly raced, home bred daughter of Teofilio out of an Oasis Dream mare who has won two of her four starts and as a 2yo who won on debut for this yard makes her of particular interest. Not the biggest but a talented filly who sits off the pace and finishes strongly. Won well at York in a C3 10F fillies handicap in a first time hood and was a tad unlucky when she had her run checked when second to Newbury in a fillies listed race over 10F. The ground went against her and she was taken out at a not so “Glorious” Goodwood. It wasn’t quick enough either on her latest run when she struggled to 7th in a Listed race over C&D behind To Eternity. She goes back into handicap company for an all aged C2 fillies handicap having another go at 12F with Ryan Moore riding and they come from widest stall, although that should allow her to be tucked in. That’s an awful lot to like.

 

Saturday Star* Selections 

Newmarket 2.40                    PERSUASIVE                           Three Star*** win @

Redcar 3.55                            LAHORE                                  One Star win @

Redcar 4.30                            RASHFORD’S DOUBLE                        One Star win @

Newmarket 5.35                    EBBESBOURNE                       One Star win @ 1

Newmarket 4.25                    SOUL SILVER                           One Star* each way @         

Went into my notebook after what I thought was a promising run at Goodwood. “Barged as she came to make her challenge. Kept on hands and heels. C2 8F fillies handicap. No higher.” She has a little to find on with Shenanigans on her last run but there was no pace in that five horse affair and the winner stole it off the front. Hopefully stronger run race here. Jamie Spencer is a real bonus.

 

Fridays Lucky 15

Ascot 2.00                               SHADY MCCOY           1st 13/2           @ 5/1 general

Comfortable victory. Despite being drawn one off the stands rail Ryan Moore ended up challenging in the middle of the track, he just picked the one to follow who would take him deepest into the race. Genius.

Ascot 2.35                               ZWAYYAN                   1st 11/4F          @ 7/2 general

No nonsense Dettori ride. Prominent, trailed pace, took it up after the 2F pole, saw it out despite idling close home. If you watch the replay keep an eye on Victory Angel and Taurean Star. More in next weeks report.

Ascot 3.45                               MOUNT MARIAH       5th 9/4F           @ 9/4 general

Not sure he was good enough, not sure it was Harry Bentley’s finest hour (again). Horse stays in my tracker, hopefully to run in UK next season. Good ride from Spencer, Weekender could be some 4yo.

Ascot 4.20                               GRAPHITE STORM      6th 3/1 F

 

Friday Star* Selections (5 stars* Out 12 stars* in)

Ascot 2.00                               SHADY MCCOY           1st 13/2           One Star win @ 5/1 general

Ascot 2.35                               ZWAYYAN                   1st 11/4F          One Star win @ 7/2 general

Ascot 3.45                               MOUNT MARIAH       5th 9/4F           Two Star win @ 9/4 general

Ascot 4.20                               GRAPHITE STORM      6th 3/1 F          One Star win @ 10/3 Ladbrokes 3/1 general

           

Friday 6th October Lucky 15

Posted Thursday 5th October 6.15pm

Ascot’s Friday card looks worth a go featuring the Noel Murless Stakes for 3yo’s over 14F. With four races over the straight course and Jamie Spencer in attendance I really wanted to back at least one of his mounts but they either need quicker ground or couldn’t win if they set off now and I’m keen to take on Raheen House! Like Spencer Ryan Moore rides here although both of them are at Newmarket tomorrow. Jim Crowley rides at Ascot both days and he could have a profitable 48 hours.

As always heading into the weekend what are the goings and other track details?

Ascot Friday Going/Weather/Other last updated @Thu 05 Oct 9:08am

Going/Track Straight Course: Good to Soft, Soft in places. Round Course: Soft, Good to Soft in places

(Going Stick: Straight: 6.8, Round: 6.4 on Thursday at 08:30)

Rails: The rail on the Round Course is positioned 3yds out from its innermost position from the 1m 4f Start increasing to 14yds out at the home straight where the rail finishes with a cutaway. Increasing distances by the approx following: 1M 4F: 25yds 1M 6F & 2M: 33yds The Straight Course has been divided in two with a rail in the middle of the course form the 1m Start to 2.5F from the winning line. The stands side will be used for this meeting.

Stalls: Straight Course: Stands side 1m 4f & 1m 6f: Inside 2m: Outside

Weather Less than 0.5mm of rain recorded in brief heavy shower at about 8.40. Now expected to be mainly dry to Saturday when showers are again possible.

Newmarket Saturday Going/Weather/Other last updated @Thu 05 Oct 7:52am

Going/Track Good (Going Stick: 7.7 on Wednesday at 16:00)

Stalls: Far Side Course 12f Centre Remainder Stand Side

Weather 0.5mm of overnight rain Thursday; Overnight/morning rain clearing mid morning to leave a dry remainder to the day. Friday; Largely dry and with sunny spells. Saturday; Showery rain at times.

Redcar Saturday Going/Weather/Other last updated @Thu 05 Oct 7:40am

Going/Track Good to Soft, Soft in places (Going Stick: 7.6 on Wednesday at 14:00)

Stalls: Straight – Centre Round Course – Inside Rail

Weather 10mm rain on Thursday 28th September but then generally dry, with strong winds, through to until yesterday evening. 2mm rain overnight. Forecast is generally settled with the exception of a couple of mm of rain on Saturday.

 

Fridays Lucky 15

Ascot 2.00                               SHADY MCCOY

Ascot 2.35                               ZWAYYAN

Ascot 3.45                               MOUNT MARIAH

Ascot 4.20                               GRAPHITE STORM

 

Friday Star* Selections (5 stars* Out)

Ascot 2.00                               SHADY MCCOY           One Star win @ 5/1 general

Ascot 2.35                               ZWAYYAN                   One Star win @ 7/2 general

Ascot 3.45                               MOUNT MARIAH       Two Star win @ 9/4 general

Ascot 4.20                               GRAPHITE STORM      One Star win @ 10/3 Ladbrokes 3/1 general

 and here is why

Fridays Lucky 15

Ascot 2.00                               SHADY MCCOY I am aware that he hasn’t won since July last year but he has been to most of the big Class 2 gig’s over 7 or 8 furlongs since and as a hold up horse he has often run in an eye catching manner finishing fifth to tenth. This is a big class drop to Class 4 and an in form Ian Williams (8 from 22 in the last fourteen days) has acquired the services of Ryan Moore, more likely his agent rang up for the ride! They are drawn one off the stands rail which is fine unless they all come across but we will trust young Ryan to find a seam. The ground is fine, even better if it dried out a tad. Down to two pounds below his last winning mark, time to get his head in front again.

Main danger could be the Shadwell 3yo, Alaadel, for William Haggas and Jim Crowley. Connections would probably like to see a heavy shower or two before the Off but by Dubawi out of a Pivotal mare Alaadel should enjoy the Soft, will probably get further and seems to be improving. Tongue tie and blinkers is a little concerning.

Ascot 2.35                               ZWAYYAN Some old friends in this C3 8F Classified Stakes and I had a shortlist of four, Heavens Guest, Taurean Star, Golden Goal and Zwayyan. Heavens Guest loves Ascot and loves Soft ground and has shown signs of a revival after a wind-op but does he get the mile? Taurean Star with Spencer in the saddle over a straight 7F on a horse back to his last winning mark is mouth-watering but surely they need quick ground? Golden Goal has won three of his four starts to date and five pound claimer Paddy Bradley keeps the ride for Godolphin, is an unexposed type at this level but all his runs have been on the AW. Zwayyan ticks all the boxes. Won in the grade, over the trip, on Soft ground, Frankie Dettori rides and William Haggas trains and to top it all off Zwayyan wears first time blinkers.

Ascot 3.45                               MOUNT MARIAH Jamie Spencer was furious to miss the ride on Raheen House in the St.Leger when claimed to ride Deauvuille in the states, Meehan wasn’t too chuffed either! Raheen House finished in front of Enable first time out when they were both behind Shutter Speed, third in the Cocked Hat, fourth in the Royal Ascot Derby and winner of the Bahrain Trophy before seventh in the St.Leger. Top table stuff but does he stay a stiff 14F on Soft ground giving weight? I don’t think so and I’m happy to take him on despite the confidence of trainer Brian Meehan, “He came out of the St Leger well and is in good form. This looks a nice race for him and I am confident of a good run. Jamie Spencer rides.”

Mount Mariah has been on my radar for a while. He will love Soft ground, 14F is no problem and last time was a distant third to Order of St George in the Irish St.Leger but that was a Group 1 contest! When he went in my Notebook I wrote “This is one progressive staying 3yo who made most of the fourteen pounds received from the older horses, pulling away from the furlong pole to win by a comfortable four lengths. Needs “softer” ground. Won last three on Soft, Soft, Good over 8, 11 & 14F. OR73 81 93 102.” Trainer Ralph Beckett said: “He ran very well in Ireland and we’ve been happy with him since. He’s a course and distance winner, so we know the track is no problem and the ground should suit him. I’m hoping he’ll run a very good race.”

Ascot 4.20                               GRAPHITE STORM Has come to my attention more than once this season and although up five pounds for his last time out victory I think these are his ideal conditions, a straight 7F on Soft ground. He has run well in better races than this and off OR94 in a 0-95 Class 3 he could be shrewdly placed. Clive Cox and Adam Kirby are having a good season and this grey son of Delegator can give them another winner. Graphite Storm is a hold up horse and it will be harder for Kirby to find cover than find racing room late on in this field of just eight.

The biggest danger could come from another in form yard, Andrew Balding’s Bengal Lancer. He certainly “bumped into one” when beaten by Lahore as he attempted a hat-trick at Doncaster. Manuel Fernandes may have had his claim cut from seven pounds to five but he keeps the ride here.

 

Been busy this week sorting out my 2yo’s with the intention of backing them as 3yo’s. I thought there were two races at Yarmouth’s three day Festival last week that could throw up some winners in the next twelve months. Opinions always welcome especially if you were there last week or if they have come up on your radars. My profiles are below.

 

Yarmouth 20 Sep 2017

As I keep hearing whispers from the Sir Michael Stoute yard that “he has at least two as good as, if not better, than Expert Eye” from the September 15 2017 Catching Pigeons column on sportinglife.com I made a note of “One for next week to keep tabs on is Regal Reality from the Sir Michael Stoute yard. The son of Intello, out of Regal Realm, has a couple of entries at Yarmouth and while he’s likely to come forward for his initial racecourse experience, his homework suggests there’s a lot to look forward to in the long term.”

It’s great to see all the top Newmarket yards sending their better 2yo’s to Yarmouth once again. Not only is it flat again but they race down the centre of the course more often than not, with few hard luck stories. Any first time winner from Sir Michael Stoute’s yard has to go in the notebook.

 “Of the first four home only the third, Godolphins Dream Warrior, had run before when third to Elector (another Stoute 2yo debut winner) at Ascot. Regal Reality was out well and made every yard, lengthening at the two furlong pole and seeing the 7F out well. Rich Identity came from midfield with a change of gear to get within half a length of the winner and looks a real prospect. Dream Warrior sat on the leader’s quarters but when asked to challenge was still green and found little. Grandscape had the “educational” ride having settled and travelled well he stayed on with purpose without getting competitive.”

 

Hobgoblin Legendary Ruby Ale / EBF Maiden Stakes (Plus 10 Race) (Div II) Class 4 2yo 7f3yds Soft

POS. (DRAW)       HORSE / SP                           JOCKEY/TRAINER                                               AGE        WGT       OR          TS         RPR

1 (4)                        Regal Reality 9/4                Ryan Moore         Sir Michael Stoute              2              95           –             32          78

Made all, ridden 2f out, found extra over 1f out, kept on well under pressure when pressed inside final furlong, ridden out (op 15/8 tchd 7/4 and 5/2)

2 (7)        ½             Rich Identity 11/2             Andrea Atzeni     Roger Varian                       2              95           –             30          77

Dwelt, soon in touch in midfield, closed to chase leaders over 1f out, switched left and chased winner 1f out, strong challenge inside final furlong, kept on well but always held (op 13/2 tchd 7/1)

3 (2)        2¼ [2¾]  Dream Warrior EvensF     Colm O’Donoghue Charlie Appleby                2              95           –             23          71

Took keen hold, pressed winner, ridden well over 1f out, lost 2nd and unable to quicken under pressure 1f out, outpaced but held on to 3rd inside final furlong (op 7/4)

4 (8)        nk [3]      Grandscape 33/1               P J McDonald       Ed Dunlop                             2              95           –             22          70

Held up in touch in midfield, effort over 1f out, chased leaders 1f out, kept on same pace, no impression inside final furlong

 

REGAL REALITY           (Sir Michael Stoute) A Cheveley Park home bred son of German sire Intello, out of Regal Realm who won two 7F G3’s at Goodwood. Could be a cracking 3yo, 8-10F. No Group entries.

RICH IDENTITY            (Roger Varian) Home bred Sheikh Mohammed Obaid Al Maktoum colt by Dubawi out of a Daylami mare suggests he’ll be wanting 10F+ further down the line. Showed a turn of foot on debut at Yarmouth having raced keenly to get within half a length of Regal Reality.

DREAM WARRIOR       (Charlie Appleby) Two runs, twice finished third to a Sir Michael Stoute debutante winner, Elector at Ascot and Regal Reality at Yarmouth. Son of Dubawi out of a Group 1 “Beverley D” winning mare, I’m a Dreamer. Should have no issues with 10F next season, just immature and could be one to improve through handicaps although of course Godolphin seem to have some larger targets.

Saturday, 07 October 2017 – 3:15 Newmarket 1st Security Solutions EBF Stallions Novice Stakes (Plus 10 Race) (1m)

Monday, 09 October 2017 – 3:15 Windsor British Stallion Studs EBF Novice Stakes (1m)

Saturday, 28 October 2017 – 4:00 Doncaster Racing Post Trophy Stakes (Group 1) (1m)

Saturday, 26 May 2018 – 4:10 Curragh Irish 2,000 Guineas (Group 1) (Entire Colts & Fillies) (1m)

Saturday, 02 June 2018 – 4:30 Epsom Investec Derby (Group 1) (Entire Colts & Fillies) (1m4f)

GRANDSCAPE                         (Ed Dunlop) US Pedigree, £72K son of Lemon Drop Kid. On debut respectable fourth to Regal Reality in a C4 7F maiden. Settled, travelled and stayed on. Looks a handicap project, probably on Good ground or better or maybe the AW?

 

 

2:30 Yarmouth 21 Sep 2017

“Yarmouth September 20th C4 6F 2yo fillies maiden. I like the look of this race, so much so that I have put the first five home in my tracker. Flying Sparkle was one from one having beaten Hunni (Won a C2 6F nursery at HQ next time) on debut over 5F in a C5 at Windsor and had to give three pounds to the other four. Flying Sparkle was prominent throughout, quickened approaching the furlong pole and the other four all made up ground to varying degrees. Beauty Filly picked up in the style of a useful filly to win by a length in the hands of Ryan Moore. Left Alone running in the second colours of Sheikh Juma Dalmook Al Maktoum, he also owns the winner, came from further back and had to weave his way through, so a creditable third. This was Rozanne’s third run, having run in two strong maidens behind the likes of Teppal and Dark Rose Angel, and she showed a turn of foot without troubling the front three. Bidding War had the educational, hands and heels ride, travelling in the back three, making her ground up under hands and heels on the far side and got close enough without Martin Harley getting busy. The time wasn’t earth shattering, Topspeed 46, the RPR for the winner was 79, so it will be interesting to see if the form is franked.”

 

Ken Lindsay Memorial/EBF Fillies’ Novice Stakes (Plus 10 Race) (Class 4) (2yo) (6f3yds) 6f Good To Soft

POS. (DRAW)       HORSE / SP                                           JOCKEY /TRAINER                              AGE        WGT       OR          TS            RPR

1 (10)                     Beauty Filly 6/4F                Ryan Moore         William Haggas   2              90           –             47          79

Held up in touch in midfield, effort entering final 2f, ridden to challenge over 1f out, led just inside final furlong, ran on well, ridden out (op 13/8 tchd 11/8)

2 (1)        1              Flying Sparkle (IRE) 11/4                 Jamie Spencer     Michael Bell         2              93           –             46          79

Led until over 2f out, chased leader until ridden to lead again over 1f out, driven and headed inside final furlong, stayed on same pace final 100yds (op 4/1 tchd 5/2)

3 (11)     nse [1]   Left Alone 5/1                                     James Doyle        Hugo Palmer        2              90           –             42          76 Held up in touch towards rear, not clear run and switched right over 1f out, headway and switched left inside final furlong, ran on strongly final 100yds (op 4/1)

4 (9)        ½ [1½]    Rozanne (IRE) 33/1                           J F Egan                 Jeremy Noseda   2              90           –             40          74

Held up in touch, ridden and headway entering final furlong, switched left inside final furlong, stayed on well (op 28/1)

5 (3)        1¼ [2¾] Bidding War 20/1                               Martin Harley      James Tate          2              90           –             35          71

In touch in last trio, ridden and headway over 2f out, chased leaders over 1f out, unable to quicken and kept on same pace inside final furlong (op 16/1)

PERFORMANCE OF THE DAY The market suggested Beauty Filly was the one to beat in the six-furlong fillies’ novice stakes and so it proved with the William Haggas-trained daughter of Invincible Spirit registering a length success on what could be the start of a bright career.

BEAUTY FILLY                  (William Haggas) A £280K daughter of Invincible Spirit who was expected on debut and duly obliged at 11/8. Well regarded by connections.

FLYING SPARKLE           (Michael Bell) Cost £70K and looks money well spent as she did well to beat Hunni at Windsor and could well have “bumped into one” at Yarmouth although with her penalty would come out as the best horse in the race. Thoroughly deserves a step up in grade with Redcar a suitable target.

Saturday, 07 October 2017 – 3:20 Redcar totepool Two-Year-Old Trophy (Listed Race) (6f)

LEFT ALONE                    (Hugo Palmer) €120K daughter of first season sire, Reckless Abandon. Good size about her and certainly made her ground up comfortably. Her dam was a 10F winner with plenty of form on the AW. Should get a mile in time.

ROZANNE                         (Jeremy Noseda) Home bred daughter of Canford Cliffs who with hindsight taken part in three strong fillies maidens. Could go handicapping off OR75 and I would be disappointed if that wasn’t a winning mark.

Friday, 06 October 2017 – 6:15 Chelmsford (AW) Bet toteJACKPOT At betfred.com Nursery Handicap (6f)

BIDDING WAR                            (James Tate) £110K daughter of Champs Elysses who will want all of 10F as a 3yo and if her siblings are anything to go by she should be an OR90+ rated filly. On debut was rear early but made her ground up well on the wing, far side, all hands and heels to finish a close up fifth. Tate seems to have a yard improving in quality and trains this filly for his main patron Saeed Manana.

Monday 2nd October (Saturday Lucky 15 plus Star* Selections)

Posted Monday 2nd October 12noon

 Oh I do hope some of you kept the faith!?

Massively satisfying to have put up the winner of the Cambridgeshire, Dolphin Vista @ 50/1, in my ante post piece over three weeks before the race and then recommending topping up again on the day, add to that a comfortable win for Makzeem @ a generous 5/1 and SammyJo Bell getting the improving Boundsy up on the line @ 10/1 and it was a great day. If you had played the Lucky 15 for a £1 unit stake and the Star* selections @ £5 a star you would have got back £437.50 for your £85, that is £352.50 profit (!!!) and playing the optional #FantasticMrFahey Saturday Lucky 15 would have earned you another £16! Could have been even better with Clubbable and Original Choice beaten just a nose and a short head and either of those would have put another sixty quid in the pot!

Not all good news, as on Saturday morning my two best bets of the day would have been Sands of Mali in the Middle Park and Zap at Chester and both were most disappointing.

Still plenty of room for improvement then.

Saturday Lucky 15

Haydock 2.05                         ORIGINAL CHOICE        2nd 7/2F

Newmarket 2.55                    SANDS OF MALI         12th 9/2

Haydock 3.15                         AEOLUS                       13th 9/1                      

Newmarket 5.20                    MAKZEEM                  1st 5/1

Saturday Star* Selections (14 stars* Out)

Haydock 2.05                         ORIGINAL CHOICE      2nd 7/2F           One Star win @ 8/1 Lad+Coral

We got the price, then we got done on the bob! Every chance.

Haydock 2.40                         BOUNDSEY                 1st 10/1           One Star win @ 9/1 BF 8/1 general

Such a genuine horse. Handled the Heavy ground and SammyJo Bell got him up on the line.

Newmarket 2.55                    SANDS OF MALI         12th 9/2           Two Star** win @ 4/1 general

Really disappointing. Looked to me that he lost his action, unsuited by the course or the ground or both? However the BHA Stewards Report says “The performance of SANDS OF MALI (FR), which was ridden by Paul Hanagan and trained by Richard Fahey, and finished unplaced, was considered. It was noted that the trainer could offer no explanation for the colt’s performance.”

Haydock 3.15                         AEOLUS                       13th 9/1           One Star win @ 11/1 WH+PP

Prominent early but just not competitive in the final two furlongs

Haydock 3.15                         JOHNNY BARNES       6th 5/1             One Star win @ 8/1 BF+Coral

Missed the break by 3 or 4 lengths. Ran on but the race was over.

Newmarket 3.35                    DOLPHIN VISTA          1st 50/1           One Star* each way @ 50/1 WH ?? places

Amazing run as basically it was a solo from the 2F pole once he headed the smaller stand side group!

Ripon 3.45                              RIGHT TOUCH             4th 20/1           One Star win @ 16/1 BF+Coral

First time this season he’s got competitive and only missed out on the podium by a nose. Wins before the seasons out!

Haydock 3.50                         GEORGE BOWEN        3rd 10/1           One Star* win @ 18/1 Lad’s

Kept on but one paced. Wins before the seasons out?

Chester 4.15                           ZAP                             5th 9/4F           One Star win @ 9/2PP 7/2 general

Every chance 2F out, just didn’t pick up on the heavy ground, disappointing.

Newmarket 4.45                    CLUBBABLE                 2nd 10/3F         One Star win @ 9/2 BF 4/1 general

Worryingly Dave Orton in the RP analysis says “should have won this”. Much as I am huge Paul Hanagan fan, of many years standing, I would have to agree. Held up, weaved their way through.

Newmarket 5.20                    MAKZEEM                  1st 5/1             Two Star** win @ 9/2 Lad+Coral

Given a fine ride by Ryan Moore, coming from way back but running on very strongly up the Stands rail a la Dolphin Vista! Could be a group horse over this 7F trip.

Very much optional #FantasticMrFahey Saturday Lucky 15

Haydock 2.40                         BOUNDSEY                 1st 10/1

Haydock 3.50                         GEORGE BOWEN        3rd 10/1

Newmarket 4.45                    CLUBBABLE                 2nd 10/3F

Chester 4.15                           ZAP                             5th 9/4F

Saturday 30th September Lucky 15 plus Star* Selections

Posted Friday 29th September 6.30pm

Not happy with this rain.

From what I’ve seen of Newmarket you would rather race prominently than come from the back. After the first at Newmarket, winning jockey Pat Cosgrave said, “It’s good to soft”.

Haydock on the straight course doesn’t look as bad as I feared. The only thing you can do quickly is stop! I would want evidence of form on Soft ground or worse. After the second race at Haydock Joe Fanning said, “It is heavy, particularly down the back, but it’s loose.” The time was 14.35 seconds slow.

Both Ripon and Chester produce course specialists as the former is a roller coaster and the latter is like racing round your back garden! Remember NO CUTAWAY at Chester, looking for low drawn front runners with Soft ground form.

 

Newmarket 3.35 Cambridgeshire Handicap (Already advised)

DOLPHIN VISTA ex-Fahey now Martyn Meade, quiet season, ran well in Lincoln, trip and ground are ideal, the excellent George Wood takes off three pounds and just might be a plot. One star* win @50/1.

GM HOPKINS It’s the Cambridgeshire you have to back him! Two things needed, leave stalls at same time as everyone else and running room in the final furlong! One star* win @ 25/1

WEEKEND OFFENDER Went in my notebook twelve months ago as a likely sort for this big field handicap. Goes with cut in the ground, 9F is spot on and has a bit of class. Kevin Ryan’s mid-season break may be a blessing in disguise in this case. One star* win @ 33/1

None of the three have moved a jot (5.15pm Fri.) so just topping up each way with as many places as you can get. On line William Hill and SkyBet were going EIGHT places!

 

Saturday Lucky 15

Haydock 2.05                         ORIGINAL CHOICE         

Newmarket 2.55                    SANDS OF MALI

Haydock 3.15                         AEOLUS

Newmarket 5.20                    MAKZEEM

 

Saturday Star* Selections (14 stars* Out)

Haydock 2.05                         ORIGINAL CHOICE      One Star win @ 8/1 Lad+Coral

Haydock 2.40                         BOUNDSEY                 One Star win @ 9/1 BF 8/1 general

Newmarket 2.55                    SANDS OF MALI         Two Star** win @ 4/1 general

Haydock 3.15                         AEOLUS                       One Star win @ 11/1 WH+PP

Haydock 3.15                         JOHNNY BARNES       One Star win @ 8/1 BF+Coral

Newmarket 3.35                    DOLPHIN VISTA          One Star* each way @ 50/1 WH ?? places

Ripon 3.45                              RIGHT TOUCH             One Star win @ 16/1 BF+Coral

Haydock 3.50                         GEORGE BOWEN        One Star win @ 18/1 Ladbrokes (Rest all over place)

Chester 4.15                           ZAP                             One Star win @ 9/2PP 7/2 general

Newmarket 4.45                    CLUBBABLE                 One Star win @ 9/2 BF 4/1 general

Newmarket 5.20                    MAKZEEM                  Two Star** win @ 9/2 Lad+Coral

 

Very much optional #FantasticMrFahey Saturday Lucky 15

Haydock 2.40                         BOUNDSEY

Haydock 3.50                         GEORGE BOWEN

Newmarket 4.45                    CLUBBABLE

Chester 4.15                           ZAP

 

and here is why

 

Saturdays Lucky 15

Haydock 2.05                         ORIGINAL CHOICE        Not easy to find an improver in any of today’s handicaps but William Haggas’ 3yo looks the most likely. Right trip. Acts on the ground and more to come.

Newmarket 2.55                    SANDS OF MALI On the day I wasn’t that impressed by the Gimcrack but the form has been really well franked since, the time was good and this lengthy, speedy colt will surely improve. Yet to be convinced on the French 2yo form and I think Cardsharp is over-rated.

Haydock 3.15                         AEOLUS Ayr Gold Cup II has an awful lot of 7F horses at the top of the market and Haydock is considerably sharper than Ayr and even in the holding ground I am not sure the closers will get there. On his second in a Soft ground Stewards Cup I give Ed Walkers charge every chance.

Newmarket 5.20                    MAKZEEM I think he has the best form in the race. 7F is his trip, acts on Good to Soft and his second to Parfait here at HQ is good enough to win this.

 

Saturday Star* Selections

Haydock 3.15                         JOHNNY BARNES      

He was my selection for the abandoned race last week and on similar ground hopefully the closers will get there?

Newmarket 3.35                    DOLPHIN VISTA         

See opening section above and blog on 30th September.

Ripon 3.45                              RIGHT TOUCH            

Hardly lifted a hoof this season but the handicapper gives him a chance, he will act on the ground and ripon is a course he has run well at before.

 

Very much optional #FantasticMrFahey Saturday Lucky 15

Haydock 2.40                         BOUNDSEY                

Doesn’t know how to run a bad race, could still be improving, acts on soft ground and gets weight here.

Haydock 3.50                         GEORGE BOWEN       

OK I know he is a rogue but he is down to C3, down to OR90 and if SammyJo Bell claiming three pounds can get a tune out of him he could dot up!

Newmarket 4.45                    CLUBBABLE                

Her form suggests bridesmaid but everything that has finished in front of her has gone on to better things. Could be well handicapped and has been crying out for this seventh furlong.

Chester 4.15                           ZAP                            

If #FantasticMrFahey thinks “the trip and the track to really suit Zap, who has run well in valuable races at York and Doncaster the last twice. He might just have needed the York race after being gelded and I was encouraged by his fifth to Laugh A Minute last time. He’s still open to a bit of improvement and shouldn’t mind the ground, being by our July Cup winner Mayson.” That is good enough to me. Zap’s second in the Woodcote at tricky Epsom looks a standout bit of form in the context of this race.

 

Fridays Lucky 15

Just the one 4/1 winner and its £13 back for our £15.

Newmarket 3.00                    LIGHTENING QUICK    8th 4/1

“Keen early, no cover, lost place 2F out, plugged on. Lack of experience told. Not sure she handled either the ground or the course. Bye Bye Baby in the fillies maiden at HQ on Saturday will be noteworthy.       

Haydock 3.20                         MAYBRIDE                        2nd 8/13F

Embarrassing! Dreadful price for Lucky 15 and then she was beaten.

“Prominent throughout, led 2F out, headed inside final furlong by Tom Dascombe’s debutante This Girl.” Maybride will be a better 3yo when filling her frame and strengthening up.

Newmarket 4.20                    SPRING OFFENSIVE    7th 11/2

Newmarket 5.20                    ADDEYBB                    1st 7/2F

Ryan Moore just gets the job done in a three way thriller. Bless!

 

Friday Star* Selections (9 stars* Out 16 stars* in) That’ll do.

Newmarket 2.25                    ISABELLA DE URBINA 8th 9/1             One Star* each way @ 12/1 general

Sadly hasn’t progressed at all this season. “Chased leader until over 2f out, lost place under pressure over 1f out, well held final furlong”

Newmarket 3.00                    LIGHTENING QUICK    8th 4/1                         Two Star** win @ 9/2 WH + Coral

Newmarket 5.20                    ADDEYBB                    1st 7/2F            Two Star** win @ 4/1 general

Haydock 5.05                         SPRING OFFENSIVE    7th 11/2           One Star* each way @ 10/1 PP 9/1 general

Newmarket 4.10                    THRAVE                      1st 9/4             One Star win @ 5/1 WH + PP

“Ridden like best horse in race. Prominent, took trail, quickened nicely 2F out and saw it out well.” Promising.

 

 

 

Notebook horse

Newmarket 3.00        GAVOTA Pre race, “Roger Charlton has Gavota in the Rockfel. He said: “Gavota has been very impressive in both her races and now has to step up in to a higher grade. The program book for two-year-olds is a bit odd, in that a lot of the races come in a very short time period, and we think that this is the right race for her. She has handled soft ground on two previous runs, but she is such a good mover she would be better on faster. It’s a strong race as you would expect and we will see where we are after the race.

 

Paddock Newmarket 3.00: Rockfel

Butterscotch was a big strong type which you need in this ground and she was the pick.

Lightening Quick was also a looker.

Gavota was fit as she was on her debut at the July course.

Club Tropicana was on her toes.

Friday 29th September Lucky 15

Posted Thursday 28th September 6.00pm

Newmarket looked hard work but they seemed to be running OK on it.

After the first, James Doyle said: “It’s the soft side of good.” Martin Harley said: “It’s more soft than good to soft.”

Going round in circles today, watching the Newmarket racing whilst trying to get a handle on the ground for Friday and Saturday, whilst trying to visualise Haydock on Heavy, whilst looking for winners Friday and researching the weekend and then these pesky 2yo’s keep appearing and need profiling! So I’m running out of time.

Conclusion. Haydock could be anything, Newmarket’s waters are made murkier by it being a fillies and mares dominated card so for tomorrow its small stakes and reduced reasoning and I apologise if it’s somewhat bitty as picked up loads of snippets during the day!

Really?? Stu ‘Jimbo’ Williams‏ @Jimbo_JumpsMan  

Sheikh Fahad Al Thani, who has horses in training with Gordon Elliott, is planning to ride his horses in bumpers.

 

Fridays Lucky 15

Newmarket 3.00                    LIGHTENING QUICK

Haydock 3.20                         MAYBRIDE

Newmarket 5.20                    ADDEYBB

Haydock 5.05                         SPRING OFFENSIVE

Friday Star* Selections (9 stars* Out)

Newmarket 2.25                    ISABELLA DE URBINA One Star* each way @ 12/1 general

Newmarket 3.00                    LIGHTENING QUICK    Two Star** win @ 9/2 WH + Coral

Newmarket 5.20                    ADDEYBB                    Two Star** win @ 4/1 general

Haydock 5.05                         SPRING OFFENSIVE    One Star* each way @ 10/1 PP 9/1 general

Newmarket 4.10                    THRAVE                      One Star win @ 5/1 WH + PP

 

and here is why

 

Fridays Lucky 15

Newmarket 3.00                    LIGHTENING QUICK I am aware of having a bit of a love-in with Frankel offspring but this filly was good on debut and neither parent had issues at Newmarket.

Notebook says “Heavens knows what this young lady would fetch if she ever went through a sales ring! Like her dam she is owned by Qatar Racing, she is by Frankel out of Lightening Pearl, who won the Cheveley Park for Lyons, and won on debut at Leopardstown over 7F. “Out OK, raced prominently among horses, travelled, asked 2F out but while the penny took time to drop she was powerful in the final furlong to deny Ballydoyle’s Bye Bye Baby (Running Saturday Newmarket 4.10 in the Maiden!) close to the line.” Could be special.

Friday September 29th  Newmarket Shadwell Rockfel Stakes (Group 2) (7f)

Haydock 3.20                         MAYBRIDE Heavy ground. Well her dad, Mayson, had no issue with give underfoot and after her run at HQ I blogged, Newmarket July review “I wouldn’t give up on Maybride as she still has some growing to do into that substantial frame of hers.” This is a massive class drop and she was second on this course on debut.

Newmarket 5.20                    ADDEYBB Notebook sums it up nicely, “A solid specimen, a 3yo gelded son of Pivotal, whose three runs have been on Soft, Good to Soft and Good and he has won the last two. Having been drawn widest on the round mile Martin Harley chose to go forward and was in the van throughout. Previously at Haydock he had got outpaced, running green, but Harley got him to extend and eventually won by a cosy half length. Obvious improver OR88 93, RPR70,93,98! Martin Harley, a stiff mile and ground no worse than good and he could be a big handicap player.

3rd August Goodwood 1.50 C2 10F “William Haggas, trained of the Ryan Moore-ridden Addeybb, said: “The trip was fine, but he got left in front a bit early. He [Moore] was rather surprised that all the jockeys went up the middle when there was a fresh strip on their right. [As a result] He was left in front a little too long for an inexperienced horse, but he’ll be fine.””

Well it’s 9F, it’s soft and we’ve got Ryan Moore and stall 12 is spot on.

Haydock 5.05                         SPRING OFFENSIVE I think this horse is well handicapped and ready to win. All his best form is on Soft ground, Paul Hanagan rides, drawn 10 is fine as is C3 and a flat mile. Double figure price is worth a go.

Fridays Star* Selections

Newmarket 2.25                    ISABELLA DE URBINA I refuse to let this filly go unbacked. Thought she may be a G1 filly at the start of the season, she has run well at HQ before and Ralph Beckett is synomonous with staying fillies!

Newmarket 4.10                    THRAVE This colt ran an excellent second on debut at Newmarket, just pipped by Fortunes Pearl who ran fine in a Group race today and the fourth won yesterday by a street!

 

Thursdays Lucky 15

Great start, 2 from 2, but still I got back £19.65 for my £15.

Newmarket 2.35                    RASTRELLI                         1st 7/2

Just off pace, looked to be one paced but took the rising ground better than the second, Global Conqueror. More to come.

Newmarket 3.45                    ELARQAM                   1st 11/8F

Looks like something special. I am amazed that 5/2 was available last night! No cover, no company for the first 3F. Gallops straight as a die, some engine, led 2F out and two lengths too good for these. Tangled in third makes the Sales form from York & Doncaster interesting!

Newmarket 4.20                    UAE KING                    3rd 5/2F

Took it up 3F out, headed inside final furlong and outstayed by first two. He really is a chunky beast, should be a cracking 4yo!

Newmarket 5.30                    RIGOLETTO                 7th 11/4 F

No idea! He made the running! Lost his action in The Dip. Await the trainers explanation.

 

Thursday Star* Selections (13 stars* Out 23.55 Stars* In) Tidy profit

Newmarket 2.35                    RASTRELLI                   1st 7/2             Two Star** win @ 4/1 BF 7/2 general

Newmarket 3.45                    ELARQAM                       1st 11/8F Three Star*** win @ 9/4 Coral All over the place 7/4-5/2!

Newmarket 3.45                    FORTUNES PEARL      5th 14/1           One Star* each way @ 16/1 PP 14/1 general

Every chance 2F out, one pace 5th but some decent horses behind! Should make a nice 3yo, if not sold abroad!

Newmarket 4.20                    UAE KING                    3rd 5/2F           Two Star** win @ 3/1 BF + Coral

Newmarket 5.30                    RIGOLETTO                 7th 11/4 F        Two Star** win @ 7/2BF 10/3 general

Pontefract 4.40                      ANDOK                       3rd 9/1             One Star* each way @ 8/1 Lad + Coral

 

Weekend Heads up

Chantilly Saturday & Sunday

Racing Post 7:21PM, SEP 27 2017

With the Arc now guaranteed to have enough runners to support the Quinte bet on Sunday, France Galop has finalised the programme for Europe’s richest single raceday.

Time (BST)            Race

1.10        Total Prix Marcel Boussac

1.45        Qatar Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere (sponsored by Al Hazm)

2.20        Qatar Arabian World Cup

3.05        Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe

3.50        Prix de l’Opera Longines

4.35        Prix de l’Abbaye de Longchamp Longines

5.15        Qatar Prix de la Foret

Chantilly clerk of the course Matthieu Vincent and his team will put the rail out by 12 metres for Saturday’s card before moving it back to it’s tightest line, guaranteeing fresh ground for the runners on Arc day. Vincent said: “We want to ensure that the runners in the Arc will all be running in the best conditions and that there can be no argument that there is any advantage in one part of the course over another.”

 

Roger Varian website WED 27 SEP 2017 UAE King will return to marathon distances when he makes his second start at Listed level in the Rose Bowl Stakes at Newmarket this afternoon. Sheikh Mohammed Obaid’s son of Frankel won the Brown Jack Handicap over two miles at Ascot in June before acquitting himself creditably dropping back two furlongs in trip in the Listed March Stakes at Goodwood last month. The form of that race took a boost when the runner-up, Count Octave, ran a career-best to finish fifth in the St Leger and UAE King will now tackle his elders once again as ten are set to go to post for this £37,000 prize. Roger said: “UAE King ran well on his first start in Listed company at Goodwood and he will be well suited by the return to two miles. He has improved with every start and will be even better next year, but this is a nice stepping stone for him.”

 

Newmarket Friday David Milnes Racing Post Live

Michael Prosser has just walked the track here. He said: “We’ve had another 1mm of drizzle since this morning and I’ve changed it to good to soft, soft in places. The soft is primarily in the Dip. There is a following wind and hopefully it will dry out.”

Newmarket 2.00

David Milnes RP – Pre-parade Tiffin Top walked round like on old sheep in the pre-parade. Ghaiyyath was keen enough in his hood. Goddodin is a fantastic looking type. Midi was smallish but straight enough for his debut.

Tiffin Top is trained by John Gosden in our opener. He said: “He’s come on for his run at Doncaster and its interesting that his brother Ooty Hill runs later on.  There are a lot of well bred horses in there but he should be competitive.”

Charlie Appleby has favourite Ghaiyyath in our opener. He said: “He ran a bit of a back to front race on his debut at Doncaster when he was a bit free early doors. We like him a lot and have put a hood on him this time.”

Weekender‏ @RPWeekender  1.45pm Paddock expert Ken Pitterson wasn’t blown away by the expensive Ghaiyyath on his debut –  he looks one to oppose in the 2.00 at Newmarket. Good work!!!!!! She won by 5 lengths!

Newmarket 2.35

Rastrelli represents Charlie Appleby in the next. He said: “He should handle the undulation having run at Brighton but he’s not thrown in.”

David Milnes RP – Tadleel was the pick for the nursery. Global Emperor was the second pick.

Newmarket 3.45

Angus Gold is racing manager to Hamdan Al Maktoum who has the favourite Elarqam in the Tattersalls Stakes. He said before the race: “Dane O’Neill rode him at York and said he was doing all his best work at the end so I expect he’ll be staying on up the hill. This will tell us a lot.” Mark Johnston said of the Frankel colt: “It was the most nervous I have been for years, maybe since his mother (Attraction) ran.”

David Milnes RP – Elarqam is a strong sprinting type rather than a miler but was the pick. Fajjaj was also a standout.

Apparently Elarqam declined Ascot as Crowley was at Haydock and O’Neill was at Kempton and H-a-M wanted one of the two on Elarqam on debut.

Thursday 28th September Lucky 15 Morning Update

Posted Thursday 27th September 11.30am

It’s enough to make me spit! Rain playing havoc with weekend punting plans! Haydock has already gone Heavy!! 5.5mm of rain and some drizzle(?) has changed HQ from Good (Good to Firm in places) to Good to Soft. The Going Stick suggests everybody will want to race on the Stands Side (6.4) not Far Side (6.1), High numbers favoured on straight course, and congestion awaits! First race Thursday will be massively informative and of course no ITV coverage today! Thank God for sportinglife.com.

Pontefract today had to pass an inspection and is Heavy. It will take some getting up that hill!

And where all the non-runners at 11.30am this Thursday? Of course on the AW at Chelmsford!!!!!!!!

Chester Saturday is already Soft (Heavy in places) and remember, no cutaway.

 So what is the latest information @ 11.30am Wednesday?

Newmarket   

(Thurs. Fri. Sat.) Going/Weather/Other last updated @Thu 28 Sep 9:54am

Going Good to Soft (Going Stick: 6.3 (Stand Side 6.4; Centre 6.4; Far Side 6.1) on Thursday at 09:30)

Stalls: Far Side Course. 12f and 16f Centre, Remainder Stand Side

Weather 5.5mm of overnight rain. Overcast & drizzling currently. Thursday; Overnight/morning rain clearing to leave a largely dry afternoon. Friday; Morning rain clearing to leave a drier & brighter afternoon. Saturday; Largely dry.

Haydock

(Fri. Sat.) Going/Weather/Other last updated @Thu 28 Sep 7:55am

Going Heavy (Going Stick: 6.2 on Thursday at 07:30)

Stalls: Centre: 5f, 6f, 1m4f. Inside: 1m, 1m2f, 1m6f

Weather 17mm on Wednesday. Forecast dry on Thursday, rain on Friday morning and then largely dry in the afternoon.

Ripon             

(Sat.) Going/Weather/Other last updated @Thu 28 Sep 8:13am

Going Soft (Going Stick: 6.4 on Thursday at 08:00)

Stalls: Straight Course – Stand side Round Course – Inside Rail 1 mile 4 furlongs – Centre

Weather 12mm of rain overnight Wednesday into Thursday Thursday – Rain has cleared through, drier for the afternoon with sunny periods, 18c Friday – Partly cloudy, sunny periods, rain late morning 2-3mm, 15c Saturday – Partly cloudy, some sunny periods, 15c

Chester

(Sat.) Going/Weather/Other last updated @Thu 28 Sep 7:19am

Going – Soft, Heavy in Places (Going Stick: 5.9 on Wednesday at 07:00)

Rails: The rail has been returned to the inside meaning all race distances will be as advertised. (NO CUTAWAY!)

Stalls: 1m 2f – Outside, All other races – Inside

Weather 8mm of rain overnight. Forecast: Thu – Dry day with sunny spells. Fri – Dry morning turning to an afternoon of showers (4mm). Sat – Dry day with sunny spells.

Chantilly        

(Sat. Sun.) On Racing Post entries it says “Good to Soft” ??

Henry Candy said when ruling Limato out of the Foret, “It was just because of the ground. We have been very lucky to have two dry Arc days the last two years. Three in a row would have been asking too much. The ground is soft now, not far off heavy, and there are two more days of rain forecast so in my opinion it wasn’t worth staying in.”