Tag: Zwayyan

Thursday October 12th Triskaidekaphobia?

Posted 6.15pm Thursday October 12th

Should we have a fear of Friday the thirteenth? With Newmarket all about level weight contests, mainly for the girls, and York top heavy with handicaps, winners won’t be easy to find but with both meetings due to be run on Good ground hopefully excuses will be in short supply and the form should be solid.

Newmarket’s card opens with an impossible 5F handicap.

However the second race is full of interest, the G3 Oh So Sharp Stakes over 7F for 2yo fillies. The likes of Dark Rose Angel and Gavota have solid G2 form whilst Butterscotch represents Aiden O’Brien. I am a big fan of Dark Rose Angel who was just caught by Laurens at Doncaster in the May Hill and steps back a furlong here and Frankie Dettori takes over in the saddle. There are plenty of improvers lurking in this field and one I was impressed with when she beat Blanchefleur and Fille de Reve on debut was Herecomesthesun. A daughter of Invincible Spirit she cost £140K and represents Archie Watson and Eddie Greatrex who are two men very definitely in a hurry. Herecomesthesun travelled, lengthened and put her head down and just struck me as a filly who wants to please and that there was more to come. With BetFred offering four places at a fifth I thought there was some each way mileage at 20/1.

The G2 3yo+ 7F Challenge Stakes is all about how you feel about last year’s 6F July Cup winner, Limato at 7/4. Double G1 winner but is he the same horse this season? I’m happy to take him on and I promised myself that as soon as he was Ballydoyle’s “first choice” and Ryan Moore was on board I would back Cougar Mountain. This time last season he won the G2 Joel Stakes and was fifth in this race last year when sent off 10/3 favourite. He has been on the go since February in Doha, has run at 6, 7 and 8F, often on unsuitable Soft ground but hopefully HQ will have dried out, 7F is his best trip, no 3lb penalty this year and at 16/1 with William Hill (20/1 SkyBet on-line) I am willing to play each way.

The G1 2yo Fillies mile looks an O’Brien benefit with Happily, Magical and September. I wonder with no Soft in the going could September show her true colours as seen at Ascot and outrun the 15/2 being offered by Ladbrokes. Probably best to follow the money as “the lads” rarely get it wrong.

The 4.10 Old Rowley Cup over 12F for 3yo’s I’ve covered in my previous blog putting forward Duke of Bronte and Humble Hero as the likely winner. The 7F 2yo fillies maiden will be strictly Notebook only. The closing 10F Fillies Lisited Pride Stakes has Architecture at the top of the market but I think the 3yo’s Natavia, Ouja and Uae Queen can shake her up especially in receipt of four pounds but which one? At 20/1 with PP the improving Uae Queen could be the each way play.

With the exception of the staying 3yo handicap, covered in my previous blog, the York card looks of the “too difficult” category. Zap in the nursery, Zwayyan in the 8F handicap and Venturous in the sprint handicap catch my eye but with no conviction.

Jumps fans will no doubt be keeping tabs on the novice chases at Newton Abbot and the C2 handicap hurdle could be informative.

Saturday’s cards need some further research although my Cesarewitch shortlist is Euchen Glen, Endless Acres and Byron Flyer. The Dewhurst looks like Expert Eye’s to lose but I’m going to take a deeper look at the 6F Coral Sprint Trophy and the C2 10F handicap, both at York, and I’ll blog all three tomorrow.

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Friday 6th October Lucky 15

Posted Thursday 5th October 6.15pm

Ascot’s Friday card looks worth a go featuring the Noel Murless Stakes for 3yo’s over 14F. With four races over the straight course and Jamie Spencer in attendance I really wanted to back at least one of his mounts but they either need quicker ground or couldn’t win if they set off now and I’m keen to take on Raheen House! Like Spencer Ryan Moore rides here although both of them are at Newmarket tomorrow. Jim Crowley rides at Ascot both days and he could have a profitable 48 hours.

As always heading into the weekend what are the goings and other track details?

Ascot Friday Going/Weather/Other last updated @Thu 05 Oct 9:08am

Going/Track Straight Course: Good to Soft, Soft in places. Round Course: Soft, Good to Soft in places

(Going Stick: Straight: 6.8, Round: 6.4 on Thursday at 08:30)

Rails: The rail on the Round Course is positioned 3yds out from its innermost position from the 1m 4f Start increasing to 14yds out at the home straight where the rail finishes with a cutaway. Increasing distances by the approx following: 1M 4F: 25yds 1M 6F & 2M: 33yds The Straight Course has been divided in two with a rail in the middle of the course form the 1m Start to 2.5F from the winning line. The stands side will be used for this meeting.

Stalls: Straight Course: Stands side 1m 4f & 1m 6f: Inside 2m: Outside

Weather Less than 0.5mm of rain recorded in brief heavy shower at about 8.40. Now expected to be mainly dry to Saturday when showers are again possible.

Newmarket Saturday Going/Weather/Other last updated @Thu 05 Oct 7:52am

Going/Track Good (Going Stick: 7.7 on Wednesday at 16:00)

Stalls: Far Side Course 12f Centre Remainder Stand Side

Weather 0.5mm of overnight rain Thursday; Overnight/morning rain clearing mid morning to leave a dry remainder to the day. Friday; Largely dry and with sunny spells. Saturday; Showery rain at times.

Redcar Saturday Going/Weather/Other last updated @Thu 05 Oct 7:40am

Going/Track Good to Soft, Soft in places (Going Stick: 7.6 on Wednesday at 14:00)

Stalls: Straight – Centre Round Course – Inside Rail

Weather 10mm rain on Thursday 28th September but then generally dry, with strong winds, through to until yesterday evening. 2mm rain overnight. Forecast is generally settled with the exception of a couple of mm of rain on Saturday.

 

Fridays Lucky 15

Ascot 2.00                               SHADY MCCOY

Ascot 2.35                               ZWAYYAN

Ascot 3.45                               MOUNT MARIAH

Ascot 4.20                               GRAPHITE STORM

 

Friday Star* Selections (5 stars* Out)

Ascot 2.00                               SHADY MCCOY           One Star win @ 5/1 general

Ascot 2.35                               ZWAYYAN                   One Star win @ 7/2 general

Ascot 3.45                               MOUNT MARIAH       Two Star win @ 9/4 general

Ascot 4.20                               GRAPHITE STORM      One Star win @ 10/3 Ladbrokes 3/1 general

 and here is why

Fridays Lucky 15

Ascot 2.00                               SHADY MCCOY I am aware that he hasn’t won since July last year but he has been to most of the big Class 2 gig’s over 7 or 8 furlongs since and as a hold up horse he has often run in an eye catching manner finishing fifth to tenth. This is a big class drop to Class 4 and an in form Ian Williams (8 from 22 in the last fourteen days) has acquired the services of Ryan Moore, more likely his agent rang up for the ride! They are drawn one off the stands rail which is fine unless they all come across but we will trust young Ryan to find a seam. The ground is fine, even better if it dried out a tad. Down to two pounds below his last winning mark, time to get his head in front again.

Main danger could be the Shadwell 3yo, Alaadel, for William Haggas and Jim Crowley. Connections would probably like to see a heavy shower or two before the Off but by Dubawi out of a Pivotal mare Alaadel should enjoy the Soft, will probably get further and seems to be improving. Tongue tie and blinkers is a little concerning.

Ascot 2.35                               ZWAYYAN Some old friends in this C3 8F Classified Stakes and I had a shortlist of four, Heavens Guest, Taurean Star, Golden Goal and Zwayyan. Heavens Guest loves Ascot and loves Soft ground and has shown signs of a revival after a wind-op but does he get the mile? Taurean Star with Spencer in the saddle over a straight 7F on a horse back to his last winning mark is mouth-watering but surely they need quick ground? Golden Goal has won three of his four starts to date and five pound claimer Paddy Bradley keeps the ride for Godolphin, is an unexposed type at this level but all his runs have been on the AW. Zwayyan ticks all the boxes. Won in the grade, over the trip, on Soft ground, Frankie Dettori rides and William Haggas trains and to top it all off Zwayyan wears first time blinkers.

Ascot 3.45                               MOUNT MARIAH Jamie Spencer was furious to miss the ride on Raheen House in the St.Leger when claimed to ride Deauvuille in the states, Meehan wasn’t too chuffed either! Raheen House finished in front of Enable first time out when they were both behind Shutter Speed, third in the Cocked Hat, fourth in the Royal Ascot Derby and winner of the Bahrain Trophy before seventh in the St.Leger. Top table stuff but does he stay a stiff 14F on Soft ground giving weight? I don’t think so and I’m happy to take him on despite the confidence of trainer Brian Meehan, “He came out of the St Leger well and is in good form. This looks a nice race for him and I am confident of a good run. Jamie Spencer rides.”

Mount Mariah has been on my radar for a while. He will love Soft ground, 14F is no problem and last time was a distant third to Order of St George in the Irish St.Leger but that was a Group 1 contest! When he went in my Notebook I wrote “This is one progressive staying 3yo who made most of the fourteen pounds received from the older horses, pulling away from the furlong pole to win by a comfortable four lengths. Needs “softer” ground. Won last three on Soft, Soft, Good over 8, 11 & 14F. OR73 81 93 102.” Trainer Ralph Beckett said: “He ran very well in Ireland and we’ve been happy with him since. He’s a course and distance winner, so we know the track is no problem and the ground should suit him. I’m hoping he’ll run a very good race.”

Ascot 4.20                               GRAPHITE STORM Has come to my attention more than once this season and although up five pounds for his last time out victory I think these are his ideal conditions, a straight 7F on Soft ground. He has run well in better races than this and off OR94 in a 0-95 Class 3 he could be shrewdly placed. Clive Cox and Adam Kirby are having a good season and this grey son of Delegator can give them another winner. Graphite Storm is a hold up horse and it will be harder for Kirby to find cover than find racing room late on in this field of just eight.

The biggest danger could come from another in form yard, Andrew Balding’s Bengal Lancer. He certainly “bumped into one” when beaten by Lahore as he attempted a hat-trick at Doncaster. Manuel Fernandes may have had his claim cut from seven pounds to five but he keeps the ride here.

 

Been busy this week sorting out my 2yo’s with the intention of backing them as 3yo’s. I thought there were two races at Yarmouth’s three day Festival last week that could throw up some winners in the next twelve months. Opinions always welcome especially if you were there last week or if they have come up on your radars. My profiles are below.

 

Yarmouth 20 Sep 2017

As I keep hearing whispers from the Sir Michael Stoute yard that “he has at least two as good as, if not better, than Expert Eye” from the September 15 2017 Catching Pigeons column on sportinglife.com I made a note of “One for next week to keep tabs on is Regal Reality from the Sir Michael Stoute yard. The son of Intello, out of Regal Realm, has a couple of entries at Yarmouth and while he’s likely to come forward for his initial racecourse experience, his homework suggests there’s a lot to look forward to in the long term.”

It’s great to see all the top Newmarket yards sending their better 2yo’s to Yarmouth once again. Not only is it flat again but they race down the centre of the course more often than not, with few hard luck stories. Any first time winner from Sir Michael Stoute’s yard has to go in the notebook.

 “Of the first four home only the third, Godolphins Dream Warrior, had run before when third to Elector (another Stoute 2yo debut winner) at Ascot. Regal Reality was out well and made every yard, lengthening at the two furlong pole and seeing the 7F out well. Rich Identity came from midfield with a change of gear to get within half a length of the winner and looks a real prospect. Dream Warrior sat on the leader’s quarters but when asked to challenge was still green and found little. Grandscape had the “educational” ride having settled and travelled well he stayed on with purpose without getting competitive.”

 

Hobgoblin Legendary Ruby Ale / EBF Maiden Stakes (Plus 10 Race) (Div II) Class 4 2yo 7f3yds Soft

POS. (DRAW)       HORSE / SP                           JOCKEY/TRAINER                                               AGE        WGT       OR          TS         RPR

1 (4)                        Regal Reality 9/4                Ryan Moore         Sir Michael Stoute              2              95           –             32          78

Made all, ridden 2f out, found extra over 1f out, kept on well under pressure when pressed inside final furlong, ridden out (op 15/8 tchd 7/4 and 5/2)

2 (7)        ½             Rich Identity 11/2             Andrea Atzeni     Roger Varian                       2              95           –             30          77

Dwelt, soon in touch in midfield, closed to chase leaders over 1f out, switched left and chased winner 1f out, strong challenge inside final furlong, kept on well but always held (op 13/2 tchd 7/1)

3 (2)        2¼ [2¾]  Dream Warrior EvensF     Colm O’Donoghue Charlie Appleby                2              95           –             23          71

Took keen hold, pressed winner, ridden well over 1f out, lost 2nd and unable to quicken under pressure 1f out, outpaced but held on to 3rd inside final furlong (op 7/4)

4 (8)        nk [3]      Grandscape 33/1               P J McDonald       Ed Dunlop                             2              95           –             22          70

Held up in touch in midfield, effort over 1f out, chased leaders 1f out, kept on same pace, no impression inside final furlong

 

REGAL REALITY           (Sir Michael Stoute) A Cheveley Park home bred son of German sire Intello, out of Regal Realm who won two 7F G3’s at Goodwood. Could be a cracking 3yo, 8-10F. No Group entries.

RICH IDENTITY            (Roger Varian) Home bred Sheikh Mohammed Obaid Al Maktoum colt by Dubawi out of a Daylami mare suggests he’ll be wanting 10F+ further down the line. Showed a turn of foot on debut at Yarmouth having raced keenly to get within half a length of Regal Reality.

DREAM WARRIOR       (Charlie Appleby) Two runs, twice finished third to a Sir Michael Stoute debutante winner, Elector at Ascot and Regal Reality at Yarmouth. Son of Dubawi out of a Group 1 “Beverley D” winning mare, I’m a Dreamer. Should have no issues with 10F next season, just immature and could be one to improve through handicaps although of course Godolphin seem to have some larger targets.

Saturday, 07 October 2017 – 3:15 Newmarket 1st Security Solutions EBF Stallions Novice Stakes (Plus 10 Race) (1m)

Monday, 09 October 2017 – 3:15 Windsor British Stallion Studs EBF Novice Stakes (1m)

Saturday, 28 October 2017 – 4:00 Doncaster Racing Post Trophy Stakes (Group 1) (1m)

Saturday, 26 May 2018 – 4:10 Curragh Irish 2,000 Guineas (Group 1) (Entire Colts & Fillies) (1m)

Saturday, 02 June 2018 – 4:30 Epsom Investec Derby (Group 1) (Entire Colts & Fillies) (1m4f)

GRANDSCAPE                         (Ed Dunlop) US Pedigree, £72K son of Lemon Drop Kid. On debut respectable fourth to Regal Reality in a C4 7F maiden. Settled, travelled and stayed on. Looks a handicap project, probably on Good ground or better or maybe the AW?

 

 

2:30 Yarmouth 21 Sep 2017

“Yarmouth September 20th C4 6F 2yo fillies maiden. I like the look of this race, so much so that I have put the first five home in my tracker. Flying Sparkle was one from one having beaten Hunni (Won a C2 6F nursery at HQ next time) on debut over 5F in a C5 at Windsor and had to give three pounds to the other four. Flying Sparkle was prominent throughout, quickened approaching the furlong pole and the other four all made up ground to varying degrees. Beauty Filly picked up in the style of a useful filly to win by a length in the hands of Ryan Moore. Left Alone running in the second colours of Sheikh Juma Dalmook Al Maktoum, he also owns the winner, came from further back and had to weave his way through, so a creditable third. This was Rozanne’s third run, having run in two strong maidens behind the likes of Teppal and Dark Rose Angel, and she showed a turn of foot without troubling the front three. Bidding War had the educational, hands and heels ride, travelling in the back three, making her ground up under hands and heels on the far side and got close enough without Martin Harley getting busy. The time wasn’t earth shattering, Topspeed 46, the RPR for the winner was 79, so it will be interesting to see if the form is franked.”

 

Ken Lindsay Memorial/EBF Fillies’ Novice Stakes (Plus 10 Race) (Class 4) (2yo) (6f3yds) 6f Good To Soft

POS. (DRAW)       HORSE / SP                                           JOCKEY /TRAINER                              AGE        WGT       OR          TS            RPR

1 (10)                     Beauty Filly 6/4F                Ryan Moore         William Haggas   2              90           –             47          79

Held up in touch in midfield, effort entering final 2f, ridden to challenge over 1f out, led just inside final furlong, ran on well, ridden out (op 13/8 tchd 11/8)

2 (1)        1              Flying Sparkle (IRE) 11/4                 Jamie Spencer     Michael Bell         2              93           –             46          79

Led until over 2f out, chased leader until ridden to lead again over 1f out, driven and headed inside final furlong, stayed on same pace final 100yds (op 4/1 tchd 5/2)

3 (11)     nse [1]   Left Alone 5/1                                     James Doyle        Hugo Palmer        2              90           –             42          76 Held up in touch towards rear, not clear run and switched right over 1f out, headway and switched left inside final furlong, ran on strongly final 100yds (op 4/1)

4 (9)        ½ [1½]    Rozanne (IRE) 33/1                           J F Egan                 Jeremy Noseda   2              90           –             40          74

Held up in touch, ridden and headway entering final furlong, switched left inside final furlong, stayed on well (op 28/1)

5 (3)        1¼ [2¾] Bidding War 20/1                               Martin Harley      James Tate          2              90           –             35          71

In touch in last trio, ridden and headway over 2f out, chased leaders over 1f out, unable to quicken and kept on same pace inside final furlong (op 16/1)

PERFORMANCE OF THE DAY The market suggested Beauty Filly was the one to beat in the six-furlong fillies’ novice stakes and so it proved with the William Haggas-trained daughter of Invincible Spirit registering a length success on what could be the start of a bright career.

BEAUTY FILLY                  (William Haggas) A £280K daughter of Invincible Spirit who was expected on debut and duly obliged at 11/8. Well regarded by connections.

FLYING SPARKLE           (Michael Bell) Cost £70K and looks money well spent as she did well to beat Hunni at Windsor and could well have “bumped into one” at Yarmouth although with her penalty would come out as the best horse in the race. Thoroughly deserves a step up in grade with Redcar a suitable target.

Saturday, 07 October 2017 – 3:20 Redcar totepool Two-Year-Old Trophy (Listed Race) (6f)

LEFT ALONE                    (Hugo Palmer) €120K daughter of first season sire, Reckless Abandon. Good size about her and certainly made her ground up comfortably. Her dam was a 10F winner with plenty of form on the AW. Should get a mile in time.

ROZANNE                         (Jeremy Noseda) Home bred daughter of Canford Cliffs who with hindsight taken part in three strong fillies maidens. Could go handicapping off OR75 and I would be disappointed if that wasn’t a winning mark.

Friday, 06 October 2017 – 6:15 Chelmsford (AW) Bet toteJACKPOT At betfred.com Nursery Handicap (6f)

BIDDING WAR                            (James Tate) £110K daughter of Champs Elysses who will want all of 10F as a 3yo and if her siblings are anything to go by she should be an OR90+ rated filly. On debut was rear early but made her ground up well on the wing, far side, all hands and heels to finish a close up fifth. Tate seems to have a yard improving in quality and trains this filly for his main patron Saeed Manana.