Tag: Venturous

Thursday October 12th Triskaidekaphobia?

Posted 6.15pm Thursday October 12th

Should we have a fear of Friday the thirteenth? With Newmarket all about level weight contests, mainly for the girls, and York top heavy with handicaps, winners won’t be easy to find but with both meetings due to be run on Good ground hopefully excuses will be in short supply and the form should be solid.

Newmarket’s card opens with an impossible 5F handicap.

However the second race is full of interest, the G3 Oh So Sharp Stakes over 7F for 2yo fillies. The likes of Dark Rose Angel and Gavota have solid G2 form whilst Butterscotch represents Aiden O’Brien. I am a big fan of Dark Rose Angel who was just caught by Laurens at Doncaster in the May Hill and steps back a furlong here and Frankie Dettori takes over in the saddle. There are plenty of improvers lurking in this field and one I was impressed with when she beat Blanchefleur and Fille de Reve on debut was Herecomesthesun. A daughter of Invincible Spirit she cost £140K and represents Archie Watson and Eddie Greatrex who are two men very definitely in a hurry. Herecomesthesun travelled, lengthened and put her head down and just struck me as a filly who wants to please and that there was more to come. With BetFred offering four places at a fifth I thought there was some each way mileage at 20/1.

The G2 3yo+ 7F Challenge Stakes is all about how you feel about last year’s 6F July Cup winner, Limato at 7/4. Double G1 winner but is he the same horse this season? I’m happy to take him on and I promised myself that as soon as he was Ballydoyle’s “first choice” and Ryan Moore was on board I would back Cougar Mountain. This time last season he won the G2 Joel Stakes and was fifth in this race last year when sent off 10/3 favourite. He has been on the go since February in Doha, has run at 6, 7 and 8F, often on unsuitable Soft ground but hopefully HQ will have dried out, 7F is his best trip, no 3lb penalty this year and at 16/1 with William Hill (20/1 SkyBet on-line) I am willing to play each way.

The G1 2yo Fillies mile looks an O’Brien benefit with Happily, Magical and September. I wonder with no Soft in the going could September show her true colours as seen at Ascot and outrun the 15/2 being offered by Ladbrokes. Probably best to follow the money as “the lads” rarely get it wrong.

The 4.10 Old Rowley Cup over 12F for 3yo’s I’ve covered in my previous blog putting forward Duke of Bronte and Humble Hero as the likely winner. The 7F 2yo fillies maiden will be strictly Notebook only. The closing 10F Fillies Lisited Pride Stakes has Architecture at the top of the market but I think the 3yo’s Natavia, Ouja and Uae Queen can shake her up especially in receipt of four pounds but which one? At 20/1 with PP the improving Uae Queen could be the each way play.

With the exception of the staying 3yo handicap, covered in my previous blog, the York card looks of the “too difficult” category. Zap in the nursery, Zwayyan in the 8F handicap and Venturous in the sprint handicap catch my eye but with no conviction.

Jumps fans will no doubt be keeping tabs on the novice chases at Newton Abbot and the C2 handicap hurdle could be informative.

Saturday’s cards need some further research although my Cesarewitch shortlist is Euchen Glen, Endless Acres and Byron Flyer. The Dewhurst looks like Expert Eye’s to lose but I’m going to take a deeper look at the 6F Coral Sprint Trophy and the C2 10F handicap, both at York, and I’ll blog all three tomorrow.

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Wednesday 13th September Doncaster St.Leger Festival Day 1

Posted 5.45pm Tuesday

GOING SOFT (GoingStick 6.0)

(Rail movements: R6 +6y) (Showers) STALLS Straight course – Stands’ side; Round course – Inside

Doncaster 2.20           SHABAABY                  Two star** win          @15/8 Lad+Coral

Doncaster 2.50           GUZMAN                    One star*each way    @ 9/1 general

Doncaster 4.20           HYDE PARK                 One star* win            @13/2 BF +PP

Doncaster 4.20           SIX STRINGS               One star* win            @8/1 general

Doncaster 4.50           MIRAGE DANCER       Two star** win          @15/8 BF+Coral

2:20 Irish Stallion Farms EBF Conditions Stakes (Plus 10 Race) Cl2 (2yo) 6f2y ATR

So do you want the horse in form who is way ahead on time figures or the horse unlucky in running behind him last time or the improver? I’m with the improver, Shabaaby.

SHABAABY £270K son of Kylacchy, bred to be quick. Showed promise on debut behind the filly Nyaleti at Salisbury and got off the mark at Newmarket in a C4 6F Soft ground maiden showing a nice turn of foot to beat Cardsharp and the disappointing Rebel Streak.
JOHN KIRKUP
Modestly named value purchase at £16 who is three from six, handles soft ground but has it all to do to turn round the form with point and go 6F specialist, Demons Rock, who is on a five timer in just about as many weeks! However John Kirkup was severely hampered once if not twice in his last race at York and if he stayed the sixth furlong had to go close to Demons Rock.

The two horses who split Demons Rock and John Kirkup, Queen’s Sargent and Areen Faisal, are both entered in the big Sales race on Friday.

 

2:50 Owlerton Greyhound Stadium Nursery Handicap Cl2 (2yo) 7f6y ATR

Genuine handicap with twenty one pounds from top to bottom but I’ll be amazed if the top weight runs on genuine Soft ground. Guzman each way for me but I fear Rum Runner and Toomer.

RUM RUNNER Owned by Michael Geoghegan (Machine Learner, Saturday!), so is he still on holiday and will he be in attendance? Won well at Sandown twelve days ago and as I’ve put the next three home in my notebook (Enzemble, History Writer and Emaraty) I would like to think it was a decent maiden. So was the Sandown win the target and this is a bonus or is the horse thrown in on OR84 as he has no issues with ground, grade or trip?

CROWNTHORPE Showed a ready turn of foot to win a C4 nursery off OR82 at Sandown over 7F on Good ground off OR73 and the handicapper has responded by putting him up a hefty nine pounds to OR82 and he goes up two grades to C2 as well. Both SDS and Hanagan seem to have passed the opportunity to ride him here.

GUZMAN Of the three #FantasticMrFahey entries Paul Hanagan plumps for this one. An ability to handle the Soft ground will have to be taken on trust but is form is rock solid and this looks his grade and trip. He won his first two starts, was fifth in a hot Newmarket nursery behind Tangled when done no favours in The Dip and then mid pack in the valuable York sales race with his chances compromised by being drawn 19 and no chance of laying up with Hey Jonesie. He was flat out for much of the way but kept on over the 6F without looking too busy! Since Newmarket he has been gelded and appropriately the handicapper has dropped him two pounds!

INVIOABLE SPIRIT Another trained by the #FantasticMrFahey who ran in the York Sales race. Outpaced, he kept on well under Jamie Spencer and although never nearer in the final furlong he wasn’t too busy! Both of his last two runs have suggested that a seventh furlong would be beneficial but it would need to bring significant improvement as he was beaten off this mark, OR78, at Chester behind the speedy Demon Rocks (see the 1.20 race). However since he won his maiden in C5 he has run in the Super Sprint, the York Sales race and three C2 contests so must be thought by connections to be up to this grade.

TOOMER Had this one in the Notebook since his debut, “Travelled fine, last 2F out but stayed really well under hands and heels for eighth but only four lengths off the winner (Spring Cosmos).” Ran in two more hot maidens behind Threading and Dark Rose Angel and then a keeping on fourth in a Goodwood nursery 6F on Soft ground. This filly trained by Richard Hannon has similar connections to Tangled and I can’t get away from the fact she has only 8st to carry, even if she is two pounds out of the handicap, it’s an extra furlong and it will be testing conditions.

 

3:20 Pepsi Max Scarbrough Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 (2yo+) 5f3y ATR

THESME Nigel Tinkler’s flying filly was second in this race last year to Priceless and I can’t see anything of that class in this field. Her third in the 5½F Symphony handicap at York behind todays rival, Desert Law, last time shows she is bang in form and she is twelve pounds better off for a length and a quarter. Frankie Dettori is again in the saddle and I would expect them to make every yard in what looks a cheap Listed race.

I wonder if Desert Law will turn out again on Saturday in the Portland handicap over half a furlong further?

 

3:50 Clipper Logistics Leger Legends Classified Stakes Cl5 (3yo+ 0-70) 1m ATR

Time for tea.

 

4:20 William Hill Get The App On Google Play Handicap Cl2 (3yo 0-100) 7f6y ATR

Really like the look of this handicap as plenty of these could be on a mark high enough to be players in the big Heritage handicaps as 4yo’s next season. At the prices I’ll take Hyde Park and Six Strings against the field.

HYDE PARK Won his maiden here over C&D last October at his second attempt. Opened his 3yo campaign with a creditable third at Goodwood in a 7F 3yo handicap in late May that has produced a host of C2 winners. The Britannia over a mile at Royal Ascot was a write off, wrong group, drawn 26, prominent, no cover, didn’t stay. Then dropped 2F at Newmarket for just about the hottest 3yo 6F handicap of the season behind Ekhityaar when nothing went right. No cover early, running solo between two groups and then when they merged as he was about to launch a challenge the gap closed and he was eased down. Got his head in front at Yarmouth off OR94 in a C3 handicap at Yarmouth over 7f with a first time tongue tie despite still looking a bit green. Up 4lb to OR98 but now they have decided 7F is his trip he could continue to improve. Has been withdrawn before because of unsuitably Soft ground so will Mr Gosden deem it quick enough?

SIX STRINGS Absolutely convinced we haven’t seen the best of this horse yet, he still looks a work in progrees. He’s run well in some decent races this season and his mark hasn’t moved from OR87 until going up a pound for his last run when third over C&D beaten half a length. That was probably his best of the season and he still looked green. The day he learns to put his head down he hacks up. 7F looks his trip and he could be a force to be reckoned with as a 4yo.

#FantasticMrFahey ATR Stable Tour Sept.2017 “He is a progressive horse and hasn’t had much racing. On a going day he could easily win and let’s hope he gets his head in front before the end of the year.”

LAHORE Unraced as a 2yo and just three starts as a 3yo. Won the first two, a 5F maiden here at Doncaster on Good to Firm and showed resilience in beating Quench Dolly over 6F at Windsor in a C3 handicap on good ground before being outclassed in a G3 over 6F at Deauville on his most recent start. Is this his trip and grade? Is OR86, three pounds higher than Windsor, a fair mark? Prior to Deauville his trainer told ATR “He is two from two and he could step up in grade in the Lennox Stakes at Glorious Goodwood.” That suggests the answers may be yes, yes and yes.

IMPORTANT MISSION American pedigree, won two out of three on the AW, Ryan Moore for William Haggas and has gone up ten pounds for a pillar to post victory over 7F at Chelmsford last time. Bound to be popular in the market but loads of questions to answer back on Turf on Soft ground?

 

4:50 Sports ID – Strength In Sport Conditions Stakes Cl2 (3yo+) 1m2f43y ATR

Strictly on the book Mirage Dancer has upwards of five pounds in hand BUT ……………… In just a five runner field where is the pace coming from? Will it be a sprint from the 3F pole? Who actually wants Soft ground?

MOUNT LOGAN Become very difficult to win with. Surely you would have to fancy one of the 3yo’s to beat him in receipt of six pounds.

BEST OF DAYS One time Godolphin Derby horse but has he trained on?

MIRAGE DANCER Looked a real Derby player after his fourth in the Dee Stakes to Cliffs of Moher at Chester. Trainer Sir Michael Stoute however chose to miss Epsom and Mirage Dancer was third in the 10F G3 Tercentenary at Royal Ascot and then third to Cracksman in the 12F G2 Great Voltiguer, not seeming to stay at York. This son of Frankel has bags of talent but methinks we won’t see him in against the big boys until next season. This looks very winnable.

 

5:20 1stsecuritysolutions.co.uk Handicap Cl4 (3yo+ 0-85) 5f3y ATR

These all age 5F dashes are not my betting medium of choice but two catch my eye.

BOGART 8yo now and he has been a stalwart in these 5/6F cavalry charges in Yorkshire for most of his career. Should never be written off although the ground maybe too soft for him.
VENTUROUS
Ex Godolphin who started his 3yo campaign off OR99. Runs here off OR82, SDS booked and have they “done his wind”? Looked a short runner over C&D last time.