Tag: Uae Prince

Cambridgeshire Handicap Ante Post Newmarket 3.35 Saturday September 30th 2017

 

 

Posted Wednesday September 6th 5.00pm

As handicaps go they don’t come any harder than the thirty five runner Cambridgeshire over the odd nine furlong trip on a course that doesn’t suit every horse! I don’t expect the race to look any easier three minutes from the off as it does three weeks away! So why now? Well the weights are out today and Tom Segal (Pricewise) will have his say tomorrow in the Racing Post and so this blog needs to be on line by 6pm tonight when a couple of lines of blue on Oddschecker will tell us all Tom’s selections! So I’m suggesting you have a look at three horses now and when the final declarations are out we’ll look to top up and go each way, if there is any value.

To win the first leg of the Autumn Double I’m looking for a horse no older than six and it would have to be a very special 3yo to be recommended. I like some course form, I like a horse that has won somewhere over ten furlongs, I quite like a sparse campaign with at least one piece of form to recommend their selection, should be able to operate on Good to Soft ground and be with a trainer who is “a man with a plan” and could easily have targeted this race.

DOLPHIN VISTA                             (Martyn Meade) Regular readers won’t be surprised at the selection but may be at who trains him. Now a four year old, at the end of last season I had concluded, “Top performer winning three handicaps this season and going up from OR83 to OR99 in the process. 8/10F on Good ground or softer.”

Up until May of this year he was of course trained at Musley Bank by the #FantasticMrFahey who prepared him for the Lincoln when he was an excellent fifth off OR99 with the likes of Zhui Feng, Eddystone Rock and Withernsea behind. He was prominent early but with little cover, he was outpaced over 3F out then rattled home suggesting the Cambridgeshire’s nine furlong trip was spot on. He was then a last of nine to Playful Sound on ground too quick for him.

Next thing you know he has been moved to Newmarket! Martyn Meade has plateaued at best this season and could be seen as a one-horse yard with his Group 1 winning Frankel colt, Eminent. Just fifty seven runners in 2017 with nine winners suggests all has not been well at the yard. Back in April he told Chris Cook of the Guardian “We had a torrid time with it (dose of the virus)” said Martyn Meade, whose 50-box Sefton Lodge yard on the Bury Road is close to Newmarket’s heart. “When I ran Ernststavroblofeld the second time, he seemed to be completely clear and everything but he ran a stinker and it can only be the virus. It was one of those things that didn’t show up on the blood tests, didn’t show up on a scope and the only thing you can put it down to is a low-grade infection.”

Dolphin Vista reappeared three months later and clearly needed the run having travelled well before not picking up out of The Dip in the race Thundering Blue crashed into Eddystone Rock and those two have recently won big C2 handicaps!

I think he is well handicapped on OR96 and he is number 46 on the list and has an excellent chance of getting in.

One star* win @ 50/1 Ladbrokes & Coral 40/1 WH

 GM HOPKINS                                  (John Gosden) Just looks his race. Backed him in this last year when running off OR112 and his race lasted about two yards as he reared as the stalls opened and he was always on the back hoof! Indeed getting started is his Achilles heel but when he gets out anywhere like on terms he is a class act as he showed when winning the 2015 Hunt Cup at Ascot and twice this season he has rattled home from unpromising positions in the Coral Challenge and the Hunt Cup and the 9F of this race should be ideal and this season he turns up on OR107 and I wonder if Ryan Moore will ride him again? Cut and paste for the Balmoral at Ascot in October!

One Star* win @ 25/1 everyone!

WEEKEND OFFENDER                        (Kevin Ryan) Last October Weekend Offender beat Another Touch a neck in a 3yo C2 handicap at York and I put in my notebook, “Long term, John Smiths at York—Cambridgeshire 2017? Similar to Weekend Offender/Kevin Ryan”. Well for the John Smiths Weekend Offender was in quarantine and Another Touch ran on well having been drawn in the car park for a race with no pace and they stuck to the far rail at York!!

(Another Touch has since won a Listed race at Pontefract and I expect the 10F Listed Doonside Cup on Day one at Ayr’s Festival is top of his agenda.)

Weekender Offender gets in here on OR98 and at number 29 is guaranteed a stall if declared. After his unplanned mid-season break Kevin Ryan is right back in the winner producing swing! Weekend Offender bolted up at Ayr in a C3 10F handicap on Good to Soft ground and with the handicapper putting him up six pounds to guarantee his place in this field it was no surprise to see him run flat at York just twelve days later!

One Star* win @ 33/1 SkyBet 25/1 Ladbrokes & Coral

Others I considered,

Leshlaa                                               (Saeed bin Suroor) Of all the 3yo’s entered I think this one has some cracking form in the book and is probably a Group horse waiting to happen. Fourth in the Listed Fairway Stakes on this course, fifth in the Brittania to Bless Him and most recently winner of an AW Listed race in Turkey! Number 31 on the list so guaranteed a run if they want, indeed only top weight Carry on Deryck is in that position for the “Boys in Blue”.

El Vip                                                   (Luca Cumani) He will win one of these Heritage handicaps at 8-10F and Jamie Spencer will be in the saddle. Ground would be my biggest concern in the Cambridgeshire, can’t have Soft in the going and I think he’s best coming late off a rapid mile. Please can I have a price for 2018 Hunt Cup on Good to Firm, single figure draw and “Frank” riding?

Uae Prince                              (Roger Varian) After his run in the first race at the Goodwood Festival I had him down as a winner without a penalty but he was disappointingly flat at York and maybe the handicapper has him? OR97 and another who would prefer Good ground or better.

Qassem                                   (Hugo Palmer) Ran a cracker in the Clipper Logistics over 8F at York and in my Review of the meeting I wrote “Owned by Al Shaqab Qassem was originally with Andre Fabre in France, unraced as a 2yo, ran five times (22123) at three from 6F to 8F then transferred to Hugo Palmer stepped up to 12F and was a 14/1 eighth of fifteen in the November Handicap, OR95!  Over the winter he was gelded, pretty big shout for a €300K yearling, and this season has been fifth in a York 10½F C2 handicap OR94, won at Chelmsford in C2, OR93, dropped again back to a mile and second to Flaming Spear in the C2 8F Clipper Logistics at the York Ebor Festival off OR98. The last run was terrific as he was in the van throughout, the handicapper has put him up just one pound OR99.

Why is this horse screaming Balmoral to me? That is the £150K 8F handicap on Champions Day, Ascot October 21st!

I think 8F will suit him better and I’ll pass here.

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Review Qatar Goodwood Festival of Racing 2017

Posted Monday 7th August 6.15pm

“…. one of the most challenging race meetings, one which started in bright sunshine on Tuesday, but deteriorated into a mud bath with 50mm of rain on Wednesday, and ground that was soft or near soft for the rest of the week.” The words of an under fire Clerk of the Course.

The first race of the meeting, a 10F handicap set the tone with the order of the first two reversed in the Stewards room. Goodwood is such a difficult place to punt at. Tuesdays form may well hold up but I’m really wary of the following four days after all that rain and then a fresh strip of ground five metres from the far rail available from Thursday onwards.

What I don’t understand concerning the rain is the CoC didn’t seem to expect that much! Tuesday he said 6-10mm and we should get a couple of races run before it starts. Well it started at 10am and they got five times more than expected!

I will come back to Thursday’s fresh strip of ground more than once as it would seem the Weighing Room had decided it was the ONLY place to race, although some trainers were still choosing high in the draw for the Stewards Cup. Baffling. Mind you was the Stands side definitely slower? We won’t ever know as no horse raced there from Thursday onwards, whereas on Wednesday in the monsoon every horse raced Stands Side! Let’s get more positive!

Stars in my eyes

The two 2yo colts Expert Eye and Barraquerro, who met on debut at Newbury finishing first and third, winning the 7F Vintage and the 6F Richmond respectively. Expert Eye’s trainer Sir Michael Stoute very much gives me the impression that the horse is very much a “now 2yo” whereas Brian Meehan sees Barraquerro as a longer term project, even beyond the 2000 Guineas.

Stoute ‘s reputation is more based around his slow burning middle distance horses, often home bred, and that pipeline was highlighted by an excellent win from the 4yo, Poets Word, and likewise the 3yo Crystal Ocean who is clearly progressive. His victory was in the Group 3 Glorious Stakes which in the past has been won by Stoute horses en route to Group 1. Indeed I would expect both winners to have a go at the top level within the next twelve months.

Winter is a splendid 3yo filly seeing the extra two furlongs out well but this was a soft Group 1.

Battaash is beginning to look the real deal as a sprinter. 5F GF at Sandown to 5F Soft at Goodwood, that is some range. Exciting times ahead for Charlie Hill’s 3yo son of Dark Angel.

Whoops!

If they ran the Goodwood Cup and the Sussex Stakes on decent Good ground or better tomorrow I would still expect Big Orange and Ribchester to win. In the stayers event the Orange dwarved Stradivarius but he could be a useful addition to the division with his next target being the St.Leger and supposedly next season will be a Cup horse.

As for Ribchester, a peculiar effort. Firstly Toscanini looks a total waste of time as a pacemaker. Secondly Ribchester did too much too early, lugged out, then ran on!? The 10F Irish Champions Stakes is being mooted as a possible target. One supposes they are working backwards from the 9F Dubai Turf next March!

sportinglife.com “Richard Fahey is not ruling out a crack at Sunday’s Group 1 Prix Jacques le Marois with stable star Ribchester, who despite suffering a shock defeat in treacherous conditions in Wednesday’s Sussex Stakes at Goodwood. “He’s bouncing and has come out of the race well,” said Fahey on Sunday. “I haven’t drawn a line through France yet and I’ll see how he is this week. I’ll make a decision before Thursday.”

Horrible Handicaps

The BetFred Mile was won by Ryan Moore on Master the World for David Elsworth. I say ‘won’ I mean ‘given to’. Going into this race the 6yo was three from thirty eight, often caught in traffic as he made his run. Not here. From the two furlong pole he had a clear run down the inside no less, on that strip of fresh ground. Can’t believe Martin Dwyer hadn’t got leader and Royal Hunt Cup winner, Feng Zhui, glued to the far rail. More on this race in the Looking Forward section.

The 6F Stewards Cup was won by the one horse put down as likely to lead in Saturday mornings Racing Post excellent pace map, Lancelot du Lac. So was this a three furlong dash to THAT five yard strip? After two furlongs those drawn 20+ were six lengths wrong, ignore their form. More on this race in the Looking Forward section.

Did that really just happen?

Breton Rock won the 7F Lennox round the outside coming from last a furlong out, finishing two to everything else’s one. Billesdon Brook did something similar in the nursery but involved some weaving amongst horses as well. My good thing Rebel Streak beaten a short head by a 100/1 shot!

 

Looking Forward

UAE PRINCE- Watch replay! Winner without a penalty! Came to win race before the dodgems in front.
SHANGHAI GLORY- Run well to get fifth considering he was almost over the rail two out as they all came across.

EDDYSTONE ROCK- Denied a clear run in the Wolferton, denied a clear run here, not a lot of room in last fifty yards when sixth in John Smiths. Get Fox off, put a proper jockey on, off OR99 and a decent C2 10F could be his!

SOUL SILVER – Barged as she came to make her challenge. Kept on hands and heels. C2 8F fillies handicap. No higher.

SAINTED – Never got the run when she wanted to. 7F Soft Listed tops.

GM HOPKINS-Slow from stalls AGAIN! Flat course, few bends, 8F. Still on my Cambridgeshire list.

SHYMKENT- 3yo never got a run. Hampered, ran on. OR90 12F O’Meara. May need to get his toe in. York Ebor Festival?

Tuesday August 1st Goodwood

Monday July 31st 6.30pm

Right let’s turn our attention to the South Downs and the Qatar Goodwood Racing Festival. On a sunny day it is indeed “Glorious” and from the stands to the north you can see the White Horse chalk carving at Westbury and to the south The Solent and the Isle of Wight but mind you I’ve been there on a wet Thursday and the word exposed leaps to mind! It’s a classy five days of racing.

The course is unique with its ups and downs and twists and turns and the chaos on the far rail. Indeed in the BetFred Mile 35% of horses meet trouble in running. That’s about ten every time it’s run! Never my favourite course to have a major punt with luck playing too big a part. Surely a false rail turning for home would make the racing so much fairer?

With tight bends a low draw in races from 7-10F is just about essential. Mind you I see on the BHA site that on the Tuesday on the straight-ish 5/6Fcourse the stalls are stands side which should favour high numbers.

GOING/TRACK Good to Soft. Good in places on the round course (GoingStick: 6.5 on Monday at 07:00)

Rails: Lower bend dolled out 5 yards at the 6 furlong marker to the winning post. Top bend dolled out 3 yards. 2m and 1m 2f race distances increased 10 yards. 7f and 1m races increased by 15 yards

Stalls: Straight course Stand side Round course Inside

WEATHER 12 mm of rain Saturday.Dry for the last 36 hours

Going/Weather/Other last updated @Mon 31 Jul 7:58am

 

It’s hard to see past Big Orange in the Goodwood Cup although Desert Skyline could outrun his odds of 33/1! The 7F Lennox looks a real poser but I’ll put Acclaim and Home of the Brave in the Placepot and maybe play the former each way. I’m put off Spirit of Valour and Librisa Breeze by a worrying stat, “The last 8 winners came from stalls 7 or lower”. The 5F handicap is a minefield but course specialist has bottom weight, a high draw and his last eight runs at Goodwood returned form figures of 11213232. 14/1 1234 1/5 each way could be the way to go? I like Tribute Act in the last the fillies handicap but 5/2 is too short!

 

Tuesdays Lucky 15

Goodwood 1.50                     GARCIA                                   5/1 general

Goodwood 2.25                     MILDENBERGER                     11/2 PP + WH 5/1 general

Goodwood 4.10                     REBEL STREAK                                    4/1 general

Galway 7.40                            GOLD SPINNER                       9/1 general    

and heres why

Goodwood 1.50 No surprises in the first as I make it between three towards the top of the market.

Hugo Palmer saddles Murad Khan and much as the yard is having winners I’m sure Hugo would like a bit more terrestrial TV time. This 4yo could still be improving despite his mark now up to OR103 for this race. Backward as a 2yo with just the one placed effort on the AW at Kempton he won his first three races as a 3yo including beating Nimr at Doncaster and Ballet Concerto at Thirsk in mile handicaps but then disappointed when tried in Listed company. Well fancied for the Hambleton handicap on his first run this season he boiled over in the preliminaries and ran no race. They gelded him and eight days ago he behaved impeccably in a first time hood and won a C2 8F handicap at Windsor beating the likes of Chelsea Lad and Donncha. He races prominently and has a touch of class being a son of Ravens Pass out of a Sadler’s Wells and his half-brother Ascription improved for being gelded.

Another who may have scope within his handicap mark of OR97 is Roger Varians Uae Prince (owner could perhaps be a little more imaginative when naming horses!). He’ another in the yellow with the black spots who started life with Luca Cumani but has only raced for Varian. Unraced as a 2yo on debut he was third over 10F maiden behind Imperial Aviator and Ulysses with Autocratic fourth and Uae prince was sent off 4/5 favourite! Ridiculous. Won his maiden over 12F then went handicapping off OR and was sent off Evens favourite in a C3 12F contest at Doncaster but disappointed in sixth when “struck over head by rival riders’ whip over 1f out”. He opened his 4yo campaign with a C3 10F success on Good to Firm at Ripon, didn’t seem to stay the 12F of the listed Buckhound Stakes at HQ so they gelded this £650K purchase! Amazing. Last time out he was an excellent fourth in the John Smiths at York. He led running to the furlong pole and was only beaten a length. He obviously hasn’t been easy to train and for all his talent I’m not sure he’s mentally mature enough but his prominent racing style should be an advantage here.

Just a neck behind him on the Knavesmire in fifth was Garcia. That was his first run of the season, “He just had a little, niggly problem and we gave him plenty of time to get over it,” and I think he’ll come on a bundle. #FantasticMrFahey has secured the services of Ryan Moore and the 4yo is currently a top priced 9/2 market leader although it being the opening contest we may get longer in the morning, remember to check out the offers with your friendly bookie especially if you are on line with SkyBet!

Impressive winner of the 8F 3yo Silver Bowl at Haydock last season this 10F is his trip, a bit of give in the ground is ideal and the draw in 12 of 18 looks troublesome but 9 of the last 11 winners came from stalls 9 or higher and 8 of the last 11 winners came from a double-figure stall Good news Murad Khan is in 11 with Uae Prince in 15!Wouldn’t dare tell young Ryan what to do but wide, late and handsome please. Two star** win @ 5/1 general

Goodwood 2.25 Nothing would surprise me here as this looks like twelve colts who may or may not take the next step forward in G2 over 7F. May I suggest that Frankie Dettori will be trying harder than most on Sallab for Richard Hannon, who used to be a by word for these five days, and owners Al Shaqab the Qatari’s who sponsor the whole shindig! However Shallab is stepping up from winning in C5 and that’s one of the biggest steps!

I make it between two, Expert Eye and Mildenberger.

Expert Eye was a Stoute winner on debut which is always noteworthy and when put up by Keiron Fallon in the RP Monday Jury as “one to follow” it has to be in the Notebook. Add to that “Newmarket correspondent David Milnes with the two-year-olds to watch 6:00PM, JUL 20 2017 Expert Eye  (c. Acclamation – Exemplify) Sir Michael Stoute He got the Freemason Lodge juveniles on the board when scoring over six and a half furlongs at Newbury in June, a race that is already working out. He has since excelled in his homework and is bred to be speedy, as his dam is a half-sister to 1,000 Guineas winner Special Duty. This colt can be expected to be given entries in all the top autumn juvenile races.”

Mildenberger is a Godolphin home bred son of Teofilio out of a Dubawi mare who will surely stay further. On debut over 7F took trail, green, asked 2F out, got to the front ½F out and pulled clear. Impressive under a penalty at Newbury, C4 7F. Kept it simple, out well, made all, stretched clear from the furlong pole. I think Goodwood will suit his running style and if James Doyle can get his fractions right and an untroubled lead I think Mildenberger will be a tough nut to crack. One star* win @ 11/2 PP + WH

Goodwood 4.10 Not my normal sort of race to play in but Rebel Streak went into my notebook after his last run, “Travelled kindly, progress two out, looking for racing room, turned sideways in run to the furlong pole, straightened out and kept on strongly to the line beaten less than two lengths by Lethal Lunch. This was a promising first run on Turf for this Dark Angel colt. Should get 7F.” This looks an ideal next step with no issues over trip, grade or ground and the Baldings know a thing or two about training winners at Goodwood. One star* win @ 4/1 general

Algam runs for the sponsors and Ryan Moore has “chosen” the unraced Princely of the Hannon pair. Godolphin’s Tribal Quest heads the market.

Galway 7.40 This is more my cup of tea, a mad field of eighteen over 8 ½ F at Ballybrit! Gold Spinner is a lightly raced son of Pivotal, indeed he didn’t see the course until he was a 3yo. Behind Orderofthegarter on debut he won his next two over 8F but didn’t seem to stay the extra quarter of a mile last time. Ground and trip are fine and I like the fact that this prominent racer is drawn 2 and I expect to see Colin Keane make full use of that draw, grab the rail and save enough to see him home on that stiff climb to the line! One star* each way @ 9/1 general ¼ 1234

Riven Light, a winning two mile hurdler for Willie Mullins and Galway stalwart Baraweez sent over by Brian Ellison make fascinating rivals.