Posted Wednesday July 12th 3.30pm
Plenty to look forward to on the first day of the July meeting at HQ. Let’s see if we can make a couple of quid?
Newmarket GOING Good
Stalls: Stand Side Course 12f and 13f Centre Remainder Far Side
WEATHER 16.5mm of rain on Tuesday & overnight. Wednesday; Overnight rain clearing to leave a largely dry day. Thursday; Sunny spells and light afternoon/evening showers 22C. Friday; Largely dry 20C. Saturday; Largely dry and warmer 25C. (Going/Weather/Other last updated @Wed 12 Jul 7:11am)
Thursdays Lucky 15
Newmarket 1.50 RAHEEN HOUSE @ 4/1 general
Newmarket 3.00 UNABATED @ 12/1 PP + BetFred
Newmarket 3.35 POETS WORD @ 9/2 Coral 4/1 general
Newmarket 5.05 FOREST RANGER @ 13/2
Newmarket 1.50 RAHEEN HOUSE Two star** win @ 4/1 general
Newmarket 2.25 INVINCIBLE ARMY One star* win @ 7/1 general
Newmarket 2.25 ENJAZAAT One star* win @ 16/1 PP 14/1 general
Newmarket 3.00 UNABATED One star* win @ 12/1 PP + BetFred
Newmarket 3.00 DANIELSFLYER One star* win @ 201 general
Newmarket 3.00 TOMMY TAYLOR One star* win @ 25/1 PP (20/1 BF, as low as 14/1!!)
Newmarket 3.35 POETS WORD (NAP) Three star*** win @ 9/2 Coral 4/1 general
Only High Street bookie to have last two races priced up on-line is Paddy Power. So shop around.
Newmarket 4.35 ORVAR One star* win @ 12/1 general
Newmarket 4.35 OH SO SASSY Half a star each way @ 25/1 general
Newmarket 4.35 MONT KIARA Half a star each way @ 20/1 general
Newmarket 5.05 FOREST RANGER (NB) Two star** win @ 13/2
Newmarket 5.05 TRICORN One star* win @ 9/2
(Total 16 stars)
and here is why
1.50 Bahrain Trophy G3 3yo 13F
One of the serious St.Leger trials and basically brings together most of the middle distance 3yo form from Royal Ascot.
The “Ascot Derby”, the G2 12F Edward VII, was won by Permian with Raheen House a hanging, staying on fourth. That looks the best bit of form on offer to me. Connections felt this colt was good enough to run in the G1 Racing Post Trophy as a 2yo. However Raheen House doesn’t look a straight forward conveyance.
At Ascot Jamie Spencer had him out smart-ish but by halfway he had been shuffled back to last before staying on. The Listed Cocked Hat at Goodwood was a difficult race as Monarchs Glen went twelve lengths clear and Raheen House had to tow the field up and then got done for toe by Khalidi. On seasonal debut he had split the fillies Shutter Speed and Enable and that doesn’t look too shabby. The field looks big enough to find cover and Jamie Spencer should have plenty of room to manoeuvre at HQ, trip and ground look OK and connections seem bullish “Trainer Brian Ellison said: “Raheen House is entered in the Bahrain Trophy at Newmarket on Thursday and we will see what the ground is like as we don’t want it too firm. It was fine at Ascot and I am sure it will be fine at the July Course and I hope we can run there. He is a St Leger horse and that is the ideal race for him. He is in great order and in tip-top shape.””
In the C2 12F King George V handicap Atty Persse overcame a wide draw racing in the van throughout and this son of Frankel had enough left to overcome the cavalry in the home straight and now steps up to Group company over a furlong further. Sofia’s Rock was in behind having had a troubled passage throughout and although ten pounds better off with the winner this is his first venture into Group class as well.
Desert Skyline and Face the Facts took part in a messy G2 Queens Vase, this year over 14F, finishing sixth and eighth after both met interference then doing their best work in the final furlong and both looked out and out stayers for whom even this 13F may be too short. Neither has won beyond C4 level. Wisconsin was wayward and has been beaten at the Curragh since but does represent Coolmore/O’Brien/Moore. Tamleek ran behind Benbatl in the G3 10F Hampton Court and steps up a full three furlongs here. He has looked one paced since moving into Group class.
Crowned Eagle hasn’t been seen since disappointing in the Derby itself and Wolf Country was behind Permian in the Dante. Both now have questions to answer. Trip for the former, quick ground for the latter?
2.25 Arqana July Stakes G2 6f Colts & Geldings
Once again it’s Royal Ascot form being tested. Rajasinghe did us proud when winning the G2 6F Coventry stakes at Ascot and gets a three pound penalty here for his troubles. One would struggle to see either US Army Flag or Denaar turning the form around. Bigger dangers may come from the G2 5F Norfolk and the Listed 5F Windsor Castle Stakes. Card Sharp and It Don’t Come Easy were third and fifth in the Norfolk while Sound of Silence was the winner of the Listed race.
The rest are a bunch of Yarmouth/Windsor C4/5 maiden winners, any of which could improve but it’s a fair sized leap. However some of the stats suggest taking a second look. 6/15 – Ran at Royal Ascot in their last race 10/15 – Won their last race 14/15 – Had won over 5 or 6f previously 11/15 – Won by either a Feb or March foal 10/15 – Won their last race
6/15 – Ran at Royal Ascot in their last race. Just 40% of the last fifteen winners had their last race at Royal Ascot!! That brings Enjizaat and Invincible Army into play. The former was professional looking impressive when hacking up on a miserable afternoon. The latter is a real good looker did a quick time when winning over C&D
Rajasinghe is trading at around 13/8 which is skinny for a penalised horse on a different course to Ascot’s carpet and Newcastle’s Tapeta! Don’t really want to oppose him but Enjizaat and Invincible Army may be the way to go.
3.00 Bet365 C2 6F 3yo 0-105 handicap.
Now here is an easy one! Twenty 3yo sprinters. I’ll put up three against the field with the rider that I backed all three last time with varied results.
UNABATED OR104 Just how good is Marco Botti’s Bated Breath colt? As a 2yo he ran in the G2 Gymcrack on his second outing, the third in the G3 Solaria on the AW at Kempton and finally fifth to Harry Angel in the G2 Mill Reef. In March he went to Newcastle on the Tapeta over 6F and beat a bunch of 3yo’s off OR94 then four months later over he repeated the dose against his elders off OR99, “smooth headway, kept on strongly”. Could well be a Group horse. Initially concerned about the ground but he won his maiden on the Soft at Newmarket.
DANIELSFLYER OR101 Another course winner and over the trip as well, he was put up eight pounds for his May success when he showed a tidy turn of foot out of The Dip. Well backed for the valuable Charity Sprint at York he ran flatter than the proverbial pancake, indeed his two career poor runs have been on the Knavesmire. So in forgiving mood I’ll give Brian Ellisons smart Dandy Man colt another chance with Adam Kirby taking over from SDS.
TOMMY TAYLOR OR95 Went into my Craven report “Looks a surefire sprint winner for Kevin Ryan as he tanked through the C2 6F 3yo handicap on the Craven Thursday. Now dropped 2lb to OR95 I could see him turning up at York for the valuable 3yo 6F Charity Sprint.” The yards health problems and temporary closure scuppered that plan and I’ve no idea how or if he was affected or how fit he is but he looked a talented handicap sprinter, the type Ryan has always done well with. The same owner has had the likes of Brando and Bogart.
3.35 Prince of Wales Stakes G2 12F
Frontiersman v Poets Word. Is the ground soft enough for Hawkbill?
As regular readers know I fancied Poets Word for the Hardwicke but Dartmouth got Sir Michaels nod whilst Godolphin put forward Prize Money. Both were well behind a resurgent Idaho as were Wings of Desire (fifth) and Western Hymn (seventh) who both run here. Here’s my Hardwicke blog as I still stand by it! “Dartmouth returns to defend his crown for HM the Queen and you can be sure Sir Michael Stoute will have him trained to the moment. You know this is coming BUT I think there is a 4yo in here who has all the correct conditions to break into the big time. The problem is Sir Michael Stoute trains him as well! Every time I see a Newmarket gallops report he’s always ‘best’ or ‘impressive. The horse is Poets Word. He is going to love this ground, however his second to Deauville in the Huxley Stakes at Chester was his first race out of Maiden or handicap company and this horse has a classic Sir Michael Stoute, brought along steadily profile and Saturday could well be his day. I can only see two other rivals of note. Frontiersman may well have won the G1 12F Coronation Cup if he hadn’t hung down the camber but to me looked another classic example of Godolphin promoting their horses too quickly, C2 handicap to Epsom G1. He was in my notebook as I thought he could win the Ebor, i.e. I think he’s a handicapper who could do with a bit further. Poets Word is already a seven pound better according to the Official Handicapper but twice the price.”
Add to that Ryan Moore is in the saddle and this is my nap of the day.
4.05 Maiden Fillies 2yo 6F Put the kettle on and get the notebook ready. Obviously I hope Moore on Maybride for Cheveley Park and #FantasticMrFahey can win the race but they will be hideously overbet! Quite interested in the two Hannon Jnr entries, Lamya and Toomer.
4.35 John Deere handicap 5F C2 0-100 Not my favourite betting medium these older sprint handicaps over the minimum trip. Let’s see if we can find whose turn it is here? Three against the field.
ORVAR OR92 Minimum trip is synonymous with Robert Cowell. Highly tried as a 2yo running in the G2 July Stakes and running Raucous to a neck off level weights over C&D. Has since left Richard Hannon and his mark has slipped from OR101 to OR92. In reasonable current form, placed in last two races, and wears cheek-pieces for the first time.
OH SO SASSY OR88 Chris Wall’s 7yo mare could probably run this track on her own as four of her last eight races have been over C&D and she is never far away, getting within a half-length of winning behind El Astronaute earlier this season. Has form on all sorts of ground and Fran Berry should have the far rail to help being drawn 1.
MONT KIARA OR84 His form at HQ is 25194 and he handles the ups and downs well and enjoys the stiff finish. One of Kevin Ryan’s that has had a run since his all clear from quarantine and hopefully has put him spot on for this contest. Tom Eaves rides and like Oh So Sassy will be up against that far rail and if he is to be played it is likely to be late.
5.05 Robinsons Mercedes-Benz Sir Henry Cecil Stakes 8F Listed Race 3yo Two I really like in this Listed race.
FOREST RANGER Hugely impressive when he cruised past a decent field in an 8F C2 Conditions contest on the Tapeta at Newcastle back in April and to say he’s been highly tried since is an under-statement! Sixth to Permian in the G2 10F Dante when he clearly didn’t stay and then an eight length fifth to Barney Roy in the G1 8F St. James Palace Stakes. This is a big class drop and I put in my Royal Ascot preview “Forest Ranger (Richard Fahey) struck me as up in trip, 8-10F, down in grade, G3?, could see him back to winning ways.” Same trip and softer ground should be fine at this stage of his career. Tony Hamilton keeps the ride.
TRICORN Another to make my Royal Ascot notebook “Just doesn’t know how to run a bad race. In his six races his Racing Post Rating has gone 72-76-90-100-101-107 suggesting he could improve further and make into a Group horse. Now rated OR105 on Turf only OR99 on the AW so is there a handicap at Chelmsford? (John Gosden)” So Gosden “rolls the big dice” and has a shot at a Listed contest with James Doyle once again in the saddle.