Posted Friday 12.15pm
Good morning to the betting brotherhood,
You are going to need to be a fully paid up member of the wide awake club today as there is lots going on! And this is just Friday!! Firstly some observations on Kempton’s AW track. Secondly four crackers in a Lucky 15 tonight. Thirdly, it is a 2yo notebook fest today and plenty of opportunities to fill that tracker, mainly with next season in mind. Fourthly, there are some trainers a long way from home and some fascinating jockey bookings!
But first a key to the next three days is going to be the Going! So here’s the morning update. Haydock is Soft, the stalls are on the inside and should favour low numbers on the straight course, although as it cuts up they may move off the rail. Remember Haydock has become a front running/prominent paradise. Ascot is Good to Soft with the stalls on the stands side on the straight course which should help high numbers. Beware Musselburgh is Good to Firm, Good in places with the stalls for the 5F races stand side and high numbers that can get that near rail are in clover. Kempton is Standard to Slow and Newcastle is Standard.
This week I put up two horses at Kempton on the Polytrack and both finished an annoying second but there were many similarities in their defeats that I would welcome your comments on. They both drifted from 7/4 in the morning to 3/1 minutes before the start, suggesting the market is fairly clued in as both winners were well supported. Secondly both made their runs up the inside and were beaten by horses swooping down the middle of the track. So is it best to be drawn in stall 7+ than in 1-6 where your tactics are limited, especially in the later races where the inside maybe churned up? Thirdly is the most valuable attribute at Kempton “an ability to quicken”, because on this surface you can certainly get some traction? Check out Keyser Soze for confirmation!!
Plenty of late developing classy 2yo’s will make their debut at the Sunbury venue.
Friday Evening’s Lucky 15
Musselburgh 5.35 HIGH WELLS 15/8PP 7/4 general Two star** win
Musselburgh 6.35 THOMAS CRANMER 5/1 general One star* win
Kempton 8.20 ARAB MOON 10/3 C + L Three star*** win
Kempton 9.20 GOOD GOLLY MISS MOLLY 6/1 general (8’s online) One star* win
and here is why
Musselburgh 5.35 HIGH WELLS Seamus Durack sends just the one from Upper Lambourn, Berkshire to Edinburgh, Scotland and it is clear to see why. He needs Good to Firm ground, which he gets here. The handicapper has put him up nine pounds for his win at Bath last Thursday but he gets to run here with just a six pound penalty. He gets to run in a 0-65 despite being on OR66 and so remains in C6. Paul Mulrennan, one of the weighing room’s most talented practitioners, has been booked. Opposition looks moderate at best for this improving son of High Chaparral.
Musselburgh 6.35 THOMAS CRANMER A good friend of mine recently aired the opinion that Mark Johnston was “mucking around” with this one and asked my opinion. This was my profile in reply.
THOMAS CRANMER (Johnston) Solid performer but not in C2! Needs a flat, front runners track such as Musselburgh, Catterick, Haydock or Chester, a small field (8 maximum), C3 7F (possibly 8F) on ground no softer than Good and every chance he will make all. Currently OR90 so a ?-90 would be handy. Entered twice at Goodwood, can’t have him in the Betfred Mile but the 5.50 at Goodwood on Wednesday in a C3 7F 3yo+ handicap (3yo’s get 6lb) would be possible off a single figure draw. Hasn’t made the cut. Put him in the tracker.
If I’m right he has just about ideal conditions and no surprise the 11/1 with PP has gone, he has halved in price!! Second favourite at 5/1 tops!! I still think that is fair.
Kempton 8.20 ARAB MOON This one I also profiled recently.
ARAB MOON (William Knight) Some tool on the AW, four from four as a 3yo and since being gelded. Kempton 11F C6 OR61, Lingfield 12F C6 OR67, Kempton 11F C4 OR74 and most recently Kempton 12F C4 OR80. The last run was crazy. Stone cold last 2F out, de Sousa pulled him out to stands side and he has passed eight horses and won by two and a half lengths with the handbrake on! Got to get 8lb+ for that and maybe his future lies in Meydan and all points east but if he stays in the UK either needs to transfer his form to the Flat or maybe wait for the winter and aim at the AW Championships. Only cost £23K and surely would reach six figures at the Horses in Training sales in the Autumn.
Hugh Taylor, ATR’s top tipster has also put him up but there is still some 3/1 available. Up ten pounds but he’s at Kempton, he really quickens, he’s in stall 8 and SDS is in the saddle again.
Good race and also running and on my radar are AZAM who Michael Appleby recently acquired from John Gosden. He needs a galloping 12F and this may be a bit sharp. WESTERN DUKE I have down to win over this trip but at somewhere like Bath or Salisbury and there are a couple in here who should be too good for him. The favourite, MOUNTAIN HUNTER, is two from two for Godolphin and will make the market but he is a mountain of a horse and Mr Carson will need to get his fractions spot on to repel Arab Moon’s late charge!
Kempton 9.20 GOOD GOLLY MISS MOLLY Jeremy Gask had done a great job getting this mare’s handicap mark down to a winnable mark and Martin Bosley has reaped the rewards. If Martin Lane is really winging down from Haydock to take the one ride he must be as confident as me of racking up the C&D hat-trick.
The first three races at Ascot can’t fail to be informative with particular interest in the 2.40 and HERCULEAN. This is a C3 maiden for horses whose sire has won at 10F+. Herculean is a Frankel colt, a full brother to Fair Eva, owned and bred by Juddmonte, trained by Roger Charlton and to my amazement ridden by Ryan Moore. Amazement because if he is “G1 useful” why let Moore sit on him when further down the line Ballydoyle residents will be trying to beat him and Moore will know what he’s dealing with! He’s already ridden Expert Eye!
RP – Jack Regan being gelded since his last run but that is the case for the Chelsea Thoroughbreds’ colt. Trainer Charlie Hills adds: “He has been gelded since his last run and worked pleasingly the other day so hopefully he can fire.”
Races 2-4 at Kempton, 6.20-7.50, are essential viewing with more and more top trainers giving future Group race horses their debut here. The likes of Roaring Lion (6.20), Symbolisation, Tanseeq (both 7.20), Jousi and Poetic Charm (7.50) are already in my notebook.
Slightly more frivolously is Chief Justice in the Newcastle 1.40. Last time out he exited the stalls, went twenty yards, stopped and dumped Paul Hanagan! Talented but quirky, no headgear today, H will need to be strapped in!
Jockey/Trainer Alarm Bells!
Where to start?
Well Daniel Tudhope is at Ascot for one O’Meara inmate and two for Michael Bell of which Sacred Act (5.00) is worth a second look.
Ryan Moore rides for Charlie Appleby/Godolphin at Ascot 4.25 Alqamar.
Martin Lane is at Haydock including one for bin Suroor and then jocked up on Good Golly Miss Molly in the 9.20 at Kempton who he has ridden in her last two C&D victories for Martin Bosley.
Connor King has one ride for Brian Ellison at Haydock. Two seasons ago this boy was the next Mick Kinane/Johnny Murtagh. I think he has weight issues.
Kempton 7.20 Jamie Spencer rides for Richard Hughes. Love to earwig the riding instructions but bet it doesn’t involve, “jump out, make all”!!
So who has made the trek to Scotland for Good to Firm ground?
The red hot combo of Archie Watson and Ed Greatrex have two! Mazarain is up 11lb for a C&D win (6.05). Brandon Castle in the 7.05.
Likewise Robyn Brisland sends just one from Newmarket, 1.40 Oswald, and has employed Paul Mulrennan to ride.