Tag: John Kirkup

SimpleSimonSays Review York Ebor Festival 2017 Part 3

Posted Thursday August 31st 5.30pm

So what horses can we take from the York Ebor Festival that could find the winners enclosure before the season ends and maybe a 2018 target. Unlike Goodwood York doesn’t throw up a zillion hard luck stories but I thought a few didn’t get the rub of the green and/or took a major step forward. I am writing this section deliberately without reading the “eye catchers” from other on-line journalists. I expect they may be similar but the following are MY observations.

Finally I have a whole list of “twilight” horses and I would love your opinions on them.

So open up your Trackers and let’s go.

Looking Forward its Tracker Time!

I’ll do them in alphabetical order.

Brorocco                           (Andrew Balding) I am a little nervous putting this one as a horse to follow because he is a battle hardened handicapper who has run in plenty of C2’s and has a habit of finding trouble BUT he is really unlucky at York being “done” more than once. Slowly away probably intentionally, got rail and travelled, rear turning in, nowhere to go 2F out when absolutely tanking, recovered to finish fourth! Remains on OR89.

Saturday, 23 September 2017 – 3:25             Newbury Dubai Duty Free Handicap (1m2f)

Saturday, 30 September 2017 – 3:35             Newmarket Betfred Cambridgeshire Handicap (Heritage Handicap) (1m1f)

Both targets are possible especially the Newbury race. The Silver Cambridgeshire would be very feasible but he could sneak into the main event.

The Stewards have a fairly large file marked, “Brorocco”.

BHA Stewards Report @ York “Jimmy Quinn, the rider of BROROCCO, placed fourth, reported that the gelding was denied a clear run between the final 2 furlong and 1 furlong markers.”

BHA Stewards Report @ YorkTHE bet365 OLD NEWTON CUP HANDICAP STAKES (CLASS 2) .. SHRAAOH (IRE), placed third, ridden by Andrea Atzeni, had interfered with BROROCCO, unplaced, ridden by David Probert …. David Probert, the rider of BROROCCO, unplaced, reported that the gelding slipped on the bend turning into the home straight.”

Plus getting to the start with him isn’t easy, “Jimmy Quinn, rider of BROROCCO, placed fourth, reported that the gelding was upset going to the start.” “David Probert, the rider of BROROCCO, unplaced, reported that the gelding ran too free.” “David Probert, the rider of the beaten favourite, BROROCCO, unplaced, reported that the gelding stopped quickly having been fractious in the preliminaries.”

Caridade                            (Kevin Ryan) OR83 80 I can’t believe the handicapper has dropped her three pounds. Her yard missed a major part of this season in quarantine and Caridade seems to have benefited. Kevin Ryan paid just £20K for this Godolphin cast off with an American pedigree who was unraced as a 2yo. Just had the three runs, won on Good to soft and 7F looks her trip. Gutsy run at York behind Lincoln Rocks. Moved to the inside, they were always going just a stride too quick for her but she has kept on well. Indeed they went flat out the whole trip here. Looks a winner waiting to happen to me.

El Hayem                           (Sir Michael Stoute) Remains on OR96 and surely has another big 8F C2 handicap in him although I suspect he will need to have Firm somewhere in the going, indeed earlier in the season his trainer told the Newbury Stewards “that the gelding was unsuited by the soft, good to soft in places, ground and would prefer it faster.”

At York a rotten draw in stall 13 and Dettori has chosen to take a pull and drop him in at the rear, last turning in, rapid progress down the middle of the track at the 3F pole but little left in the final furlong and lost fourth on the line. El Hayem is no easy ride but he has a few gears, hence the need for ground he can accelerate on.

Declared for Saturday September 2nd on Chelmsford’s mega bucks evening card in a C2 0-105 7F handicap but Dettori will need to perform miracles to win from the widest draw, stall 16!

Saturday, 02 September 2017 – 7:50 Chelmsford (AW) Chelmsford City Cup Handicap (7f)

Saturday, 23 September 2017 – 3:25 Newbury Dubai Duty Free Handicap (1m2f)

Saturday, 30 September 2017 – 3:35 Newmarket Betfred Cambridgeshire Handicap (Heritage Handicap) (1m1f)

Euchen Glen                    (Jim Goldie) Remains on OR91. This horse is in cracking form and 2m+ on Good to Soft ground is ideal. Since being stepped up to 16F he has got up late to win the Shergar Cup Stayers and ran a cracker to finish third to Magic Circle at York. On the Knavesmire Paul Mulrennan had trouble getting him to settle, still full of beans after a mile, tanking 2F out when faced with a wall of horses, kept on well to nab third.

BHA Stewards report “Paul Mulrennan, the rider of EUCHEN GLEN, placed third, reported that the gelding ran too free.”

Out of a winning 5F sprinter but sired by Derby winner Authorised he is a long, rangy type. Still has improvement in him over these extended trips and I give him a squeak in the Cesarewitch. I’ve had one star* each way @ 25/1 WH 1234 ¼.

Saturday, 14 October 2017 – 3:40 Newmarket Betfred Cesarewitch Handicap (Heritage Handicap) (2m2f)

John Kirkup                (Michael Dods) Remains on OR92. Ran in the C2 6F Nursery at York that closed the Wednesday card on the rain softened Good to Soft ground. Odd race in a way because the winner has blitzed out of stall 5 to make every yard, with those drawn low unable to lay up with him, as Demon Rocks drifts towards the stands side in the final furlong it is the high numbers who have something to run at. John Kirkup is well thought of by the Dods yard and he is murdered here 2F out having been held up off the pace from stall 16 with the door closing on him twice at least as he tried to make his run between horses.

BHA Stewards report “Paul Mulrennan, the rider of JOHN KIRKUP, placed fourth, reported that the gelding was denied a clear run approximately 2 furlongs out.”

Some give in the ground, 6F or a stiff 5F, C2 or possibly Listed. Cost just £16K and I think he would make a lot more than that in the sale ring even as a gelding!

Saturday, 07 October 2017 – 5:40 Redcar totepool Two-Year-Old Trophy (Listed Race) (6f)

Kalagia                                                (Mark Johnston) I watched this young lady quite closely in the C2 6F Nursery at York as she carried my money as I thought “Mark Johnston’s runner is bred to be quick being by Kodiac out of a Whipper mare! Joe Fanning should be able to get her prominent from stall 2 and just like her win at Hamilton make every yard. She hasn’t been stopping over 5F and carrying just 8st 1lb, close to the jockeys minimum, hopefully she’ll see the extra furlong out!” Wrong! She was totally outpaced early on, improved at halfway amongst horses, kept on to finish 9th. She is a full sister to the rapid Prince of Lir and she wasn’t cheap at €105K, which makes her poorly treated in the Sales race at Doncaster.

The handicapper has kindly dropped her three pounds OR77 74. Any nursery over 6F, preferably fillies only, 0-75 and she has to be worth a second look.

Thursday, 14 September 2017 – 3:35            Doncaster Weatherbys Racing Bank £300,000 2-Y-O Stakes (6½f)

Natural Scenery         (Saeed bin Suroor) The one “unlucky” horse in that messy part of the Ebor handicap around the 2F pole and Ed Greatrex ended up having to go round the houses to get a run and she flew to grab third. The handicapper has put her up three pounds OR104 107 and it will be interesting to see where Godolphin go with her. The obvious long term target would be back to the AW Stayers Championship at Lingfield next Easter, she was sent off 4/1F last April but had a troubled run there last year. Typical of Godolphin her current entries are “ambitious”.

She has many options, UK All Weather, Dubai, Australia (?) or the breeding paddocks?

Saturday, 14 October 2017 – 3:40                  Newmarket Betfred Cesarewitch Handicap (Heritage Handicap) (2m2f)

Saturday, 21 October 2017 – 1:25                  Ascot Qipco British Champions Long Distance Cup (Group 2) (2m)

Saturday, 21 October 2017 – 2:35                  Ascot Qipco British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes (Group 1) (1m4f)

Tuesday, 07 November 2017 – 4:00               Flemington Emirates Melbourne Cup (Group 1) (3yo+) (Turf) (2m)

Ouja                                     (John Gosden) This is the trouble with lightly raced fillies who look to be well handicapped! Handicap snip on OR77, she runs a cracker to finish fourth in the 12F Listed Sir Henry Cecil Stakes at the York Ebor Festival and is put up 18lbs, yes eighteen, to OR95. However she has run well enough to suggest she can make an impression at Listed or possibly Group level. Beautifully bred by Sea the Stars out of a Danehill mare, that’s £200K beautiful, 12F is her trip and as York was only her fifth start and with a patient trainer, there could be loads more to come. Where next Mr Gosden? She could be a cracking middle distance 4yo.

Qassem                               (Hugo Palmer) Owned by Al Shaqab Qassem was originally with Andre Fabre in France, unraced as a 2yo, ran five times (22123) at three from 6F to 8F then transferred to Hugo Palmer stepped up to 12F and was a 14/1 eighth of fifteen in the November Handicap, OR95!

Over the winter he was gelded, pretty big shout for a €300K yearling, and this season has been fifth in a York 10½F C2 handicap OR94, won at Chelmsford in C2, OR93, dropped again back to a mile and second to Flaming Spear in the C2 8F Clipper Logistics at the York Ebor Festival off OR98. The last run was terrific as he was in the van throughout, the handicapper has put him up just one pound OR99.

Hugo Palmer on Betfair prior to the York run, “Qassem is a bit of a conundrum in that he arrived from France as a prospective lead horse for Galileo Gold, but does nothing quickly at home and wasn’t suited to that role, and I ended up aiming him at the November Handicap as he needs ease in the ground and shaped like a stayer in his homework.

In the end, we had the unusual scenario of a slow-run race on fast ground for that contest which was completely unsuitable. He ran perfectly well here over the extended ten furlongs here in May, but the drop back to a mile was no inconvenience to him at Chelmsford last time when he won well despite being messed around on the home turn, showing his versatility in the process. There are very few opportunities for horses with his rating on the All Weather, so he’s back on turf and is another of mine for whom the rain is a plus. He’s well drawn to take a handy position, although I’d not be keen to make the running on the round course at York, so hopefully he can get a good lead into the contest.”

Why is this horse screaming Balmoral to me? That is the £150K 8F handicap on Champions Day, Ascot October 21st!

Shymkent                   (David O’Meara) I don’t know if a non-runner counts but I had Shymkent down as a major player in the 14F C2 Melrose 3yo Handicap until the trainer withdrew him, “Self Cert (Bad Scope)”. Had one disappointing run for Roger Varian as a 2yo, sent off just 9/2, was then gelded and moved to David O’Meara. Won on debut for the yard in a Good ground C5 10F maiden at Wetherby getting up late at the amazing odds of 50/1! Then outclassed in the Listed Cocked Hat at Goodwood, won an 11F C4 handicap on Soft ground at Carlisle off OR86, a staying on tenth beaten just over seven lengths to Atty Persse in the King George V C2 12F handicap on Good to Firm (too quick) and then a hampered running on fourth to Walton Street over 11F in a competitive C3 handicap at Goodwood off OR90. This horse was crying out for 14F on soft ground in a C2 with a decent gallop, last week was not the time to scope badly! By Pivotal out of a Sadlers Well mare whatever he does this year he is going to be a cracking staying 4yo. OR90.

Spring Offensive           (Richard Fahey) This is not an easy horse to win with but he ran really well at York in the 10F C2 handicap behind Eddystone Rock on his first attempt at the trip. He had the worst of the draw out in stall 20, dropped in behind, all that was behind him and Paul Hanagan straightening for home was the ambulance. Never competitive he has run on strongly to the line under nothing but hands and heels. The handicapper has dropped him a further two pounds OR88 86 and he is now below his last winning mark.

Three thoughts occur to me. Firstly he could be a candidate for the Silver Cambridgeshire but that race attracts improving 3yo’s! Secondly is there a C3 8-10F contest at the Ayr Gold Cup meeting? Thirdly, let him go. He doesn’t win often enough. He has appeared in James Pyman’s Friday RP eye-catchers before now.

Conclusion I want to back him at a double figure price in a competitive handicap whilst he is on OR86.

 

That lot were hard work and time consuming. Let’s hope they pay off!

 

“Twilight” Horses, Stuck in the middle?

Now time for you all to contribute. A constant theme to me, especially during the summer Flat Festivals, is the number of “Twilight” horses who really have little chance of winning, stuck between top weights in a handicap and not good enough for level weights. So could you tell me under what circumstances YOU would consider backing the following?

Alpha Delphini              (B Smart)              6yo         OR108

Returns to Beverley on Sat. in the “Bullet”, the last race he won twelve months ago!

Certificate                        (Varian)                 6yo         OR104

Now down to just a pound higher than when he won a Goodwood 7F C2 handicap over a year ago.

Desert Encounter      (Simcock)              5yo         OR114

Won a Listed 12F at Ascot in May but struggling in G1 since.

Final Venture                 (Midgely)              5yo         OR110

Won a Soft ground 5F Listed sprint at Haydock in May. Just biding his time until he can get back to Meydan?

Gabrial                                (Fahey)                  8yo         OR107

Has career earnings of £750K+, two thirds of which is place money! Hasn’t won since June 2016 in a 8F Listed race on the Soft at Windsor.

Glass Office                      (Simcock)              7yo         OR100

Missed 2016 and his OR is down eight pounds in three runs this year. Last race he won was 6F G2 Duke of York June 2016.

High Jinx                            (Tim Easterby)     9yo         OR109

Not won since the G1 Prix du Cadran back in 2014.

Jallota                                 (C. Hills)                6yo         OR110

Last won a G3 7F at Chantilly a year ago.

Jungle Cat                         (C.Appleby)          5yo         OR112

Won a C3 7F Conditions at Haydock in July. Another waiting to get back to Meydan?

Mondaliste                 (O’Meara)            7yo         OR113

Not won since the G1 Arlington Million a year ago. Probably the answer!

My Dream Boat            (Cox)                      5yo         OR113

Not won since the Soft ground 10F G1 Prince of Wales 2016. When will he lose that G1 penalty?

Polybius                             (Simcock)              6yo         OR106

Not won since a Listed 6F race at HQ back in August 2015! Another Meydan candidate?

So Beloved                 (O’Meara)            7yo         OR111

Not won since a Haydock 7F Listed event in May 2016, losing sequence of fifteen since!

Sheikzayedroad            (Simcock)              8yo         OR114

Won the Group 2 Qipco British Champions Long Distance Cup Ascot Oct 2016. Third in the G1 16F Dubai Gold Cup in March. Earned close on £300K for those two alone but unsighted in three runs this summer.

Suedois                       (O’Meara)            6yo         OR112

Not won since joining current yard, that is seventeen months and twelve runs. Been second/third eight times out of twelve!

Toscanini                           (Fahey)                  5yo         OR110

August 2016 he won a G3 6F on the Curragh. Relieved of his pacemaking duties for Ribchester, went very close in the recent G3 7F City of York under a hold up ride!

Tupi                                      (Hannon)               5yo         OR109

Won the Listed 6F Cammidge Trophy on the opening day of the 2017 season but that is his only win in the last two seasons and seventeen runs.

Viscount Barfield         (Balding)               4yo         OR105

Won a C2 handicap off OR90 and a Chester Listed both over 7f and went up fifteen pounds in four weeks but where now?

 

Phew! I’m done!!

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