Tag: ITV racing

Friday August 25th Day 3 York Ebor Festival

Posted Thursday 6.30pm

Tough day in the office. Financially damaging. The good news is they are racing at York again tomorrow but my it is a trappy card with a capital T!! It’s drying out on the Knavesmire. “Good, Good to Soft in Places” and the clerk of the course has just tweeted “A lovely sunny evening to end Day 2”.

Memo to ITV racing – 2.55pm That Oaks countdown is totally unnecessary and irrelevant. ITV sticking Enable on a pedestal. Nasty feeling of “tall poppy syndrome”!

 

York 3.35 Nunthorpe Stakes G1 5F 3yo+

This won’t take long. Blink and you could miss them. Great to watch just loath them as a betting medium! I’ll be cheering on Lady Aurelia as I enjoy Wesley Wards efforts in supporting the British summer Festivals!

 

York 4.15 C2 7F Convivial Maiden Stakes 2yo.

Probably my favourite race of the meeting as it will be packed with future winners and I will probably watch it twenty times. Gabr was a big Notebook horse on debut a HQ but will be in the place pot only. That noise you can here is me sharpening half a dozen pencils!

 

Friday Lucky 15 (probably e/w)

York 1.55                    LANDSMAN                @10/1 WH 8/1 general                    

York 2.25                    DARTMOUTH              @9/2 WH 4/1 PP      

York 3.00                    MUBTASIM                      @ 14/1 WH + PP Both also 4 places!          

York 4.50                    MOJITO                       @3/1 general

 

Friday Star* Selections (14 Stars)

York 1.55                    LANDSMAN                One Star* each way @10/1 WH 8/1 general

York 2.25                    DARTMOUTH              Two Star** win @9/2 WH 4/1 PP

York 3.00                    MUBTASIM                      Two Stars** each way @ 14/1 WH + PP Both also 4 places           

York 4.50                    MOJITO                       Four stars**** win @3/1 general

York 4.50                    KINGS GIFT                 One star* each way @ 25/1 Betfred + 4 places!

 and here’s why

 York 1.55                    LANDSMAN    History says the winner will be carrying 9st 4lbs or less, had three runs this season, winning form and be in Stall 8 or wider. Landsman is trained in Ireland by tony Martin who knows all about winning on the Knavesmire and I like his jumpers when they’ve had a reconnoitre, at Cheltenham for example, and Landsman ran here last October when not seeing out the 14F trip. He is good form, drawn 9, ground and trip look fine and Paul Hanagan has been booked. Solid each way material!

York 2.25                    DARTMOUTH  Has to give weight to the rest of the field, with reason because he is the best horse in the field or more to the point he has won a Group Two. Won over 14F here at York earlier in the season, will appreciate the ground and Ryan Moore does the steering.

Of the others the ground is too tacky for Dal Harraild, Sheikzayedroad and High Jinx probably have their best days behind them, Higher Power and Montaly are good handicappers which means the dangers are that man Mullins with Ascot Stakes winner Thomas Hobson and the possible improver, 4yo St. Michel, for Sir Mark Prescott. I’ll stick with the Royal runner.

York 3.00                    MUBTASIM The form of the G3 7F Jersey at Royal Ascot has been well franked since and I’ve been waiting to back the third horse there, Mubtasim, for a while. Love the draw in four, David Allen riding is a curious booking but he is in form, love the price and just hope the ground keeps drying. Started the year as a sprinter but to me 7F looks his trip.

At 7/1 the field you could make a case for most but I’m not sure Daban has trained on and was two and a half lengths behind the selection in the Jersey, Suedois and Tupi are drawn in the car park and like So Beloved are nearly horses. I’m with Mubtasim, it’s about time William Haggas came to the party!

York 4.50                    MOJITO Right here we go, NAP of the meeting. Been following this horse for a while and I think he is a Group horse waiting to happen. I have no worries with the grade, the trip or the ground. Indeed I think York will be ideal as he is a prominent racer, drawn 4, and he doesn’t quicken he just grinds it out from the furlong pole as he has done at Newmarket and Sandown most recently. Jim Crowley is riding on the crest of the wave and Haggas is due! I have to admit the price is currently skinny and I fear the other Haggas runner Battered, Luca Cumani’s La Rav and of course I personally will be having a saver on my cliff horse of the season, City of Joy, but with absolutely no confidence! As outlined below I also don’t think Kings Gift is a 25/1 shot either.

York 4.50                    KINGS GIFT Connections I like of Michael Dods and Paul Mulrennan and this horse was fourth in the G3 Greenham at the beginning of the season just six lengths off Barney Roy! Ninth in the G1 French Guineas and then occupied the same position to Benbatl in the G3 10F Tercentenary at Royal Ascot. He then had his sights lowered and ran a cracker when third to Chiefofchiefs over course and distance before having no chance at Goodwood drawn widest in their C2 10F handicap and being eased. This race is a much more feasible option and he starts from an ideal stall 2.

 

Thursday Lucky 15

Ticket is in the bin!

York 1.55                    GREAT PROSPECTOR             2nd 9/2          (7/2 WH + Coral 3/1 general)

Well away this time, on the job, every chance, beaten a diminishing neck, probably better at 7F. More on this race in next week’s Review as I think Paul Hanagan was blind-sided!

York 2.30                    SPECIAL PURPOSE                 5th 6/1           (13/2 general)

Bounced around among horses early on, not as big as some of these but kept on well. More to come especially if she grows. Not sold on the form of this race but the winner, Threading, is clearly useful.

York 3.00                    EL VIP                                      17th and last (One star* each way @ 10/1 general)

Too keen early on. Needs Firm somewhere in the going description and probably best on a straight mile.

BHS Stewards Report – “The Stewards considered the running of EL VIP (IRE), ridden by Jamie Spencer and trained by Luca Cumani, which finished unplaced. They noted the trainer’s explanation that the colt was unsuited by the going which was described as Good to Soft, Good in Places, and EL VIP (IRE) would prefer a faster surface.”

York 4.50                    CARIDADE                               5th 14/1         (One star* each way @ 11/1 Coral 10/1 general)

Gutsy run. Moved to the inside, they were always going just a stride too quick for her but she has kept on well. Indeed they went flat out the whole trip here.

 

Thursday Star* Selections (9 Stars out 0 Stars back)

York 1.55                    GREAT PROSPECTOR             2nd 9/2          (Three star*** win @ 7/2 WH + Coral 3/1 general)

York 2.30                    SPECIAL PURPOSE                 5th 6/1                         (Two star** win @ 13/2 general)

York 3.00                    EL VIP                                      17th and last 10/1       (One star* each way @ 10/1 general)

York 4.50                    CARIDADE                               5th 14/1         (One star* each way @ 11/1 Coral 10/1 general)

           

 

Brief Thursday review

Terry Norman‏ @tjnnorman   Interesting that Tangled clocked a faster time than Threading. Hannon’s horse capable of winning listed race #York

Simon Rowlands‏ @RowleyfileRRR 

 …which happened only twice in the previous 7 years…

 

York 3.35        Yorkshire Oaks G1 12F 3yo+ Fillies & Mares

Well no surprises. Gosden 1-2 and Enable goes to the Arc!

York 4.10        Galtres/Sir Henry Cecil Stakes 12F 3yo+ Fillies & Mares

Mori is a major disappointment for everyone except the bookmaking fraternity and Team Fanshawe!

The Stewards considered the running of MORI, ridden by Ryan Moore and trained by Sir Michael Stoute, which started favourite and finished unplaced. They noted the trainer could offer no explanation for the filly’s performance. The Veterinary Officer reported that a post-race examination of MORI, during routine testing, failed to reveal any abnormalities.

I refer you to my opening piece yesterday. Mori “Couldn’t back her at odds on (Ground, York, inexperience, she’s a mare) but wouldn’t wish to oppose her either.”

Advertisements

Monday July 10th 4.30pm

Monday July 10th 4.30pm

The five day dec’s are out for Saturday and what a treat! Loads of races are already priced up and todays blog looks at the Bunbury and John Smiths Cups where finding the winner of either will reap rich rewards. Crack both and it’s a life of Riley!

Indeed the TV schedule for Saturday July 15th, the first super Saturday of 2017, is mouth-watering.

So the plan is to blog Thursdays Newmarket TV card on Tuesday, then Wednesday do Fridays and on Thursday and Friday blog about the wonderful racing at Newmarket, York, Ascot AND Chester. Money to be made but important to do your homework as Saturday could just be too much. Easy to miss a gem!

Newmarket 3.25 7F Bunbury Cup July 15th 2017

Seven furlongs on Good to Firm ground at Newmarket for a first prize of £75K you would think they would be queuing up to throw their hat into the ring but everyone is keeping their cards very close to their chest. Why? In the next four weeks we have the even more valuable Gigaset International handicap over the same seven furlong trip at Ascot (July 29th) then the BetFred mile and the six furlong Stewards Cup at Goodwood the following week.

Trying to find an obvious improver with ten pounds in hand for the Bunbury looks impossible, well almost! I have a feeling at least half the field of twenty will be six years old plus who need some desperate help from the handicapper and are running because they can and it’s the only way to get that Official Rating lowered. After last weekend’s Old Newton Cup I am also fearful that the winner could come from the top four in the weights because they are simply the best horses in the race, at Haydock the first two were 1 & 2 on the race card, both off an OR of 104.

There is a Silver Bunbury Cup on the Friday for those who don’t get into the real thing and it will be interesting to see what number gets you into the Saturday race. Having recently watched both races for the past few years it seems a very fair race as they tend to race down the middle and I saw very few hard luck stories. Equally I saw no winners come from way back, you need to race prominently, lead at the top of the final rise and hold on for the final hundred yards. Hold up horses are making their ground up on the steepest part of the track. I think course experience is beneficial but otherwise the winner could come from anywhere.

Four horses interest me:-

WITHERNSEA  This horse goes against everything I said above. He’s a 6yo, needs a mile, cut in the ground and something to aim at in the final furlong BUT Richard Fahey has a ridiculous record in the Bunbury Cup in recent years and this is the only one that might get in! Plus Withernsea off this same mark last year on Good to Firm ground ran on to snatch third in the Silver Cup last year and the horse is in excellent form currently. Number 19 on the five day list so should run.

Currently top priced 40/1 BetFred

MAKZEEM Roger Charlton’s 4yo half-brother to Al Khazeem was a course and distance winner last time out getting a six pound penalty putting him up to OR94 which still makes him more likely to line up in the Silver Cup on Friday but his trainer said “Makzeem got a much-deserved success at Newmarket yesterday after bumping into plenty of good horses last year and getting set alight by an errant horse/rider at Sandown. Back in trip to 7f, he won well. He may not get into the Bunbury Cup but that could be the race for him.” That’s my sort of quote, fingers crossed! Number 26 on the five day list so everything crossed now.

Currently top priced 33/1 BetFred

GUNMETAL Lost his way a little in his last two runs but he fulfils all the criteria I was looking for. He’s won over 7F, he’s a 4yo, he has course form, he doesn’t seem ground dependent, he is good off the front and he is stepping up from 6F. With a mark of OR93 I expect to be backing him in the Silver Cup! Number 32 on the five day list so the Friday race looks likely.

Currently top priced 33/1 general

 

MURAD KHAN Hugo Palmers 4yo could still be improving despite a six pound penalty pushing his mark up to OR104 for this race. Backward as a 2yo with just the one placed effort on the AW at Kempton he won his first three races as a 3yo including beating Nimr at Doncaster and Ballet Concerto at Thirsk in mile handicaps but then disappointed when tried in Listed company. Well fancied for the Hambleton handicap on his first run this season he boiled over in the preliminaries and ran no race. They gelded him and eight days ago he behaved impeccably in a first time hood and won a C2 8F handicap at Windsor beating the likes of Chelsea Lad and Donncha. He races prominently and has a touch of class being a son of Ravens Pass out of a Sadler’s Well and his half-brother Ascription improved for being gelded. Non-Runner!

 

York 3.25 10F John Smiths Cup July 15th 2017

(John Smith’s Silver Cup run on the same day is NOT a consolation race but a competitive 14F handicap, quite separate.)

One tough race to win. In my opinion you have to race prominently, in the first half dozen, to win it. The draw isn’t crucial but the first dog leg bend to the left after three hundred yards is crucial. You need enough early pace to get in the first half dozen and preferably on the rail and that is how they stay until in the straight when they come down the middle and in an ideal world you challenge on the stands side just before the furlong pole, get your head in front and guts it out! Now to find the horse that can do that!! Well I’ve had two on my short list for months and I’m not for changing.

ANOTHER TOUCH Those of you that know me know I am this horse’s No.1 fan ever since he did us a massive favour at Ayr as a 2yo! Since then he has continued to progress and he needs a solid gallop and something to aim at in the last hundred yards. His form this season has been outstanding. He was second in that really strong Spring Cup at Newbury when Spencer delivered Banksea in the shadow of the post as only Spencer can. He was fourth in the Listed Hambleton handicap here, with Victory Bond just in front, when staying on strongly. He then won over 8½F at Nottingham when showing a neat turn of foot. Last time out he was prominent for a long way in the Hunt Cup but with no cover under claimer Connor Murtagh. I think the horse will find the additional two furlongs ideal as he is such a strong traveller in his races and being out of a Nayef mare I think he has every chance of being effective at 10F.

I think the extra trip is a plus but it is a doubt, as are his ability to get close enough early on, is he best with some give in the ground and is he actually good enough to win a race of this quality off OR104? That is why he is available at 20/1 with Paddy Power and 16/1 generally.

Ever since he failed to pick up Weekend Offender by a neck here on the Knavesmire over a mile last October I have had this race down as THE target and I am fairly sure so has #FantasticMrFahey!

Currently top priced 20/1 general PP 16/1 general.

VICTORY BOND This horse probably has a bit more class than Another Touch and this race would be only the sixth of his career but he has been on my radar ever since I saw him win his 3yo maiden at Ripon by seven lengths. The notebook says “Group horse in a handicap” and I was mildly surprised to see him gelded at the end of his 3yo season but this season this son of Medicean ran an excellent third in the 8F Listed Hambleton handicap here at York and his pedigree suggests 10F will be ideal. I would expect Victory Bond to be hugely competitive off OR102 IF he lines up as ATR’s Gary Nutting posted a quote from William Haggas saying “This has been the plan but we’re dependent on the weather. He needs cut in the ground and I would be reluctant to run him if conditions are too quick.”

Currently top priced 12/1 PP 8/1 general

Messrs Fahey and Haggas are two men you always want on your side when punting at York!!