Tag: Clubbable

Monday 2nd October (Saturday Lucky 15 plus Star* Selections)

Posted Monday 2nd October 12noon

 Oh I do hope some of you kept the faith!?

Massively satisfying to have put up the winner of the Cambridgeshire, Dolphin Vista @ 50/1, in my ante post piece over three weeks before the race and then recommending topping up again on the day, add to that a comfortable win for Makzeem @ a generous 5/1 and SammyJo Bell getting the improving Boundsy up on the line @ 10/1 and it was a great day. If you had played the Lucky 15 for a £1 unit stake and the Star* selections @ £5 a star you would have got back £437.50 for your £85, that is £352.50 profit (!!!) and playing the optional #FantasticMrFahey Saturday Lucky 15 would have earned you another £16! Could have been even better with Clubbable and Original Choice beaten just a nose and a short head and either of those would have put another sixty quid in the pot!

Not all good news, as on Saturday morning my two best bets of the day would have been Sands of Mali in the Middle Park and Zap at Chester and both were most disappointing.

Still plenty of room for improvement then.

Saturday Lucky 15

Haydock 2.05                         ORIGINAL CHOICE        2nd 7/2F

Newmarket 2.55                    SANDS OF MALI         12th 9/2

Haydock 3.15                         AEOLUS                       13th 9/1                      

Newmarket 5.20                    MAKZEEM                  1st 5/1

Saturday Star* Selections (14 stars* Out)

Haydock 2.05                         ORIGINAL CHOICE      2nd 7/2F           One Star win @ 8/1 Lad+Coral

We got the price, then we got done on the bob! Every chance.

Haydock 2.40                         BOUNDSEY                 1st 10/1           One Star win @ 9/1 BF 8/1 general

Such a genuine horse. Handled the Heavy ground and SammyJo Bell got him up on the line.

Newmarket 2.55                    SANDS OF MALI         12th 9/2           Two Star** win @ 4/1 general

Really disappointing. Looked to me that he lost his action, unsuited by the course or the ground or both? However the BHA Stewards Report says “The performance of SANDS OF MALI (FR), which was ridden by Paul Hanagan and trained by Richard Fahey, and finished unplaced, was considered. It was noted that the trainer could offer no explanation for the colt’s performance.”

Haydock 3.15                         AEOLUS                       13th 9/1           One Star win @ 11/1 WH+PP

Prominent early but just not competitive in the final two furlongs

Haydock 3.15                         JOHNNY BARNES       6th 5/1             One Star win @ 8/1 BF+Coral

Missed the break by 3 or 4 lengths. Ran on but the race was over.

Newmarket 3.35                    DOLPHIN VISTA          1st 50/1           One Star* each way @ 50/1 WH ?? places

Amazing run as basically it was a solo from the 2F pole once he headed the smaller stand side group!

Ripon 3.45                              RIGHT TOUCH             4th 20/1           One Star win @ 16/1 BF+Coral

First time this season he’s got competitive and only missed out on the podium by a nose. Wins before the seasons out!

Haydock 3.50                         GEORGE BOWEN        3rd 10/1           One Star* win @ 18/1 Lad’s

Kept on but one paced. Wins before the seasons out?

Chester 4.15                           ZAP                             5th 9/4F           One Star win @ 9/2PP 7/2 general

Every chance 2F out, just didn’t pick up on the heavy ground, disappointing.

Newmarket 4.45                    CLUBBABLE                 2nd 10/3F         One Star win @ 9/2 BF 4/1 general

Worryingly Dave Orton in the RP analysis says “should have won this”. Much as I am huge Paul Hanagan fan, of many years standing, I would have to agree. Held up, weaved their way through.

Newmarket 5.20                    MAKZEEM                  1st 5/1             Two Star** win @ 9/2 Lad+Coral

Given a fine ride by Ryan Moore, coming from way back but running on very strongly up the Stands rail a la Dolphin Vista! Could be a group horse over this 7F trip.

Very much optional #FantasticMrFahey Saturday Lucky 15

Haydock 2.40                         BOUNDSEY                 1st 10/1

Haydock 3.50                         GEORGE BOWEN        3rd 10/1

Newmarket 4.45                    CLUBBABLE                 2nd 10/3F

Chester 4.15                           ZAP                             5th 9/4F

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Saturday 30th September Lucky 15 plus Star* Selections

Posted Friday 29th September 6.30pm

Not happy with this rain.

From what I’ve seen of Newmarket you would rather race prominently than come from the back. After the first at Newmarket, winning jockey Pat Cosgrave said, “It’s good to soft”.

Haydock on the straight course doesn’t look as bad as I feared. The only thing you can do quickly is stop! I would want evidence of form on Soft ground or worse. After the second race at Haydock Joe Fanning said, “It is heavy, particularly down the back, but it’s loose.” The time was 14.35 seconds slow.

Both Ripon and Chester produce course specialists as the former is a roller coaster and the latter is like racing round your back garden! Remember NO CUTAWAY at Chester, looking for low drawn front runners with Soft ground form.

 

Newmarket 3.35 Cambridgeshire Handicap (Already advised)

DOLPHIN VISTA ex-Fahey now Martyn Meade, quiet season, ran well in Lincoln, trip and ground are ideal, the excellent George Wood takes off three pounds and just might be a plot. One star* win @50/1.

GM HOPKINS It’s the Cambridgeshire you have to back him! Two things needed, leave stalls at same time as everyone else and running room in the final furlong! One star* win @ 25/1

WEEKEND OFFENDER Went in my notebook twelve months ago as a likely sort for this big field handicap. Goes with cut in the ground, 9F is spot on and has a bit of class. Kevin Ryan’s mid-season break may be a blessing in disguise in this case. One star* win @ 33/1

None of the three have moved a jot (5.15pm Fri.) so just topping up each way with as many places as you can get. On line William Hill and SkyBet were going EIGHT places!

 

Saturday Lucky 15

Haydock 2.05                         ORIGINAL CHOICE         

Newmarket 2.55                    SANDS OF MALI

Haydock 3.15                         AEOLUS

Newmarket 5.20                    MAKZEEM

 

Saturday Star* Selections (14 stars* Out)

Haydock 2.05                         ORIGINAL CHOICE      One Star win @ 8/1 Lad+Coral

Haydock 2.40                         BOUNDSEY                 One Star win @ 9/1 BF 8/1 general

Newmarket 2.55                    SANDS OF MALI         Two Star** win @ 4/1 general

Haydock 3.15                         AEOLUS                       One Star win @ 11/1 WH+PP

Haydock 3.15                         JOHNNY BARNES       One Star win @ 8/1 BF+Coral

Newmarket 3.35                    DOLPHIN VISTA          One Star* each way @ 50/1 WH ?? places

Ripon 3.45                              RIGHT TOUCH             One Star win @ 16/1 BF+Coral

Haydock 3.50                         GEORGE BOWEN        One Star win @ 18/1 Ladbrokes (Rest all over place)

Chester 4.15                           ZAP                             One Star win @ 9/2PP 7/2 general

Newmarket 4.45                    CLUBBABLE                 One Star win @ 9/2 BF 4/1 general

Newmarket 5.20                    MAKZEEM                  Two Star** win @ 9/2 Lad+Coral

 

Very much optional #FantasticMrFahey Saturday Lucky 15

Haydock 2.40                         BOUNDSEY

Haydock 3.50                         GEORGE BOWEN

Newmarket 4.45                    CLUBBABLE

Chester 4.15                           ZAP

 

and here is why

 

Saturdays Lucky 15

Haydock 2.05                         ORIGINAL CHOICE        Not easy to find an improver in any of today’s handicaps but William Haggas’ 3yo looks the most likely. Right trip. Acts on the ground and more to come.

Newmarket 2.55                    SANDS OF MALI On the day I wasn’t that impressed by the Gimcrack but the form has been really well franked since, the time was good and this lengthy, speedy colt will surely improve. Yet to be convinced on the French 2yo form and I think Cardsharp is over-rated.

Haydock 3.15                         AEOLUS Ayr Gold Cup II has an awful lot of 7F horses at the top of the market and Haydock is considerably sharper than Ayr and even in the holding ground I am not sure the closers will get there. On his second in a Soft ground Stewards Cup I give Ed Walkers charge every chance.

Newmarket 5.20                    MAKZEEM I think he has the best form in the race. 7F is his trip, acts on Good to Soft and his second to Parfait here at HQ is good enough to win this.

 

Saturday Star* Selections

Haydock 3.15                         JOHNNY BARNES      

He was my selection for the abandoned race last week and on similar ground hopefully the closers will get there?

Newmarket 3.35                    DOLPHIN VISTA         

See opening section above and blog on 30th September.

Ripon 3.45                              RIGHT TOUCH            

Hardly lifted a hoof this season but the handicapper gives him a chance, he will act on the ground and ripon is a course he has run well at before.

 

Very much optional #FantasticMrFahey Saturday Lucky 15

Haydock 2.40                         BOUNDSEY                

Doesn’t know how to run a bad race, could still be improving, acts on soft ground and gets weight here.

Haydock 3.50                         GEORGE BOWEN       

OK I know he is a rogue but he is down to C3, down to OR90 and if SammyJo Bell claiming three pounds can get a tune out of him he could dot up!

Newmarket 4.45                    CLUBBABLE                

Her form suggests bridesmaid but everything that has finished in front of her has gone on to better things. Could be well handicapped and has been crying out for this seventh furlong.

Chester 4.15                           ZAP                            

If #FantasticMrFahey thinks “the trip and the track to really suit Zap, who has run well in valuable races at York and Doncaster the last twice. He might just have needed the York race after being gelded and I was encouraged by his fifth to Laugh A Minute last time. He’s still open to a bit of improvement and shouldn’t mind the ground, being by our July Cup winner Mayson.” That is good enough to me. Zap’s second in the Woodcote at tricky Epsom looks a standout bit of form in the context of this race.

 

Fridays Lucky 15

Just the one 4/1 winner and its £13 back for our £15.

Newmarket 3.00                    LIGHTENING QUICK    8th 4/1

“Keen early, no cover, lost place 2F out, plugged on. Lack of experience told. Not sure she handled either the ground or the course. Bye Bye Baby in the fillies maiden at HQ on Saturday will be noteworthy.       

Haydock 3.20                         MAYBRIDE                        2nd 8/13F

Embarrassing! Dreadful price for Lucky 15 and then she was beaten.

“Prominent throughout, led 2F out, headed inside final furlong by Tom Dascombe’s debutante This Girl.” Maybride will be a better 3yo when filling her frame and strengthening up.

Newmarket 4.20                    SPRING OFFENSIVE    7th 11/2

Newmarket 5.20                    ADDEYBB                    1st 7/2F

Ryan Moore just gets the job done in a three way thriller. Bless!

 

Friday Star* Selections (9 stars* Out 16 stars* in) That’ll do.

Newmarket 2.25                    ISABELLA DE URBINA 8th 9/1             One Star* each way @ 12/1 general

Sadly hasn’t progressed at all this season. “Chased leader until over 2f out, lost place under pressure over 1f out, well held final furlong”

Newmarket 3.00                    LIGHTENING QUICK    8th 4/1                         Two Star** win @ 9/2 WH + Coral

Newmarket 5.20                    ADDEYBB                    1st 7/2F            Two Star** win @ 4/1 general

Haydock 5.05                         SPRING OFFENSIVE    7th 11/2           One Star* each way @ 10/1 PP 9/1 general

Newmarket 4.10                    THRAVE                      1st 9/4             One Star win @ 5/1 WH + PP

“Ridden like best horse in race. Prominent, took trail, quickened nicely 2F out and saw it out well.” Promising.

 

 

 

Notebook horse

Newmarket 3.00        GAVOTA Pre race, “Roger Charlton has Gavota in the Rockfel. He said: “Gavota has been very impressive in both her races and now has to step up in to a higher grade. The program book for two-year-olds is a bit odd, in that a lot of the races come in a very short time period, and we think that this is the right race for her. She has handled soft ground on two previous runs, but she is such a good mover she would be better on faster. It’s a strong race as you would expect and we will see where we are after the race.

 

Paddock Newmarket 3.00: Rockfel

Butterscotch was a big strong type which you need in this ground and she was the pick.

Lightening Quick was also a looker.

Gavota was fit as she was on her debut at the July course.

Club Tropicana was on her toes.

Thursday 14th September Doncaster St.Leger Festival Day 2

Posted 5.45pm Wednesday

Nice start and then downhill! Ground seems to ride OK to me. Lahore looks better than a handicapper. Quiet start to the Festival but it will hopefully build to Saturday!

Doncaster Going

Soft, good to soft in places (GoingStick 6.9 at 6.30am on Wednesday).

Clerk of the course Roderick Duncan said at Wednesday 7.25am: “We had just 2mm of rain last night but we’ve had phenomenal winds all through the night. You could nearly walk round without getting your feet wet this morning – it’s drying. They’re not going to break any records today because this wind is blowing straight down the straight but it will be drying it.” Spoke today (Wednesday) to Simon Rowlands of Timeform about Going based on times of first two races and he replied, “No softer than “good to soft” Simon Rowlands‏ @RowleyfileRRR  Replying to @mooresthepity

 

I’m spitting feathers! What has happened to the field sizes at Doncaster, especially in the handicaps? Forced to take to Twitter “Simon Moore‏ @mooresthepity  @itvracing @SimonMapletoft What’s happened to the field sizes at Doncaster especially the handicaps? Thurs, Fri C2’s have 6-5-6-7-9!! #poor

 Simon Moore‏ @mooresthepity  @AtTheRaces @DoncasterRaces So why are the fields so disappointing? Frustrating as a punter but could trainers explain why the Class 2 handicaps aren’t maximum fields?

Not a dicky-bird in reply!!!

 

Thursday Lucky 15

Doncaster 1.20           HOOFALONG              @ 11/2 general

Doncaster 3.00           NATURAL SCENERY    @ 9/2 general

Doncaster 3.35           GREAT PROSPECTOR @ 9/2 general

Doncaster 4.05           EUGENIO                     @ 10/3 WH 3/1 general

 

Thursday Star* Selections

Doncaster 1.20           HOOFALONG              One star*win             @ 11/2 general

Doncaster 1.50           CLUBBABLE                 Two star** win          @ 5/2 general                       

Doncaster 2.25           DARK ROSE ANGEL    One star* win             @ 11/1 PP+Coral

Doncaster 2.25           TAJAANUS                  One star* win            @ 5/1 PP 9/2 general

Doncaster 3.00           NATURAL SCENERY    One star* win            @ 9/2 general

Doncaster 3.35           GREAT PROSPECTOR Four star**** win      @ 9/2 general

Doncaster 4.05           EUGENIO                     Two star** win          @ 10/3 WH 3/1 general

 

and here are my thoughts race by race

 

1:20 DFS Silk Series Lady Riders’ Handicap (For Pro-Am Lady Riders) Cl3 (3yo+ 0-90) 6f2y ATR

This type of race wouldn’t normally be of any interest to me under normal circumstances but there are fifteen runners in a handicap at Doncaster and I can’t let Hoofalong go un-backed.

HOOFALONG Basically he is a Class 2 horse in a Class 3 handicap. He may be a 7yo but his last run has lots to like about it. In the 5½F Symphony on Good to Soft at York behind Desert Law, the apprentice riding was slow to get the hood off (“the friction on the gelding’s blinkers had made it difficult to remove on the first attempt.”), slow away, one behind at halfway and he ran on strongly to the line finishing a closing seventh. He runs here as he is down to OR90, he won off OR94, should get away with the ground, drawn 10 and he should get a tow down the stands rail and he is ridden by the very able Joanna Mason, who is of course grand-daughter of trainer Mick Easterby.

There is a 5lb claim if any lady hasn’t ridden five winners, so jockeys such as Hayley Turner and Josephine Gordon ride on a level playing field and their mounts could be upgraded.

1:50 EBF British Stallion Studs “Carrie Red” Fillies’ Nursery Handicap Cl2 (2yo) 6f111y ITV4

When you write in your notes “Every chance, couldn’t get to winner. Fillies nursery?” and the horse turns up in a fillies nursery over 111 yards further she cannot be ignored.

CLUBBABLE The comment was made after finishing second in the £20K Foodservice Final at Hamilton on a filthy night and this Cheveley Park daughter of Musley Bank favourite, Mayson, will love the ground and trip and the last run was in this grade. She is progressive and OR75 looks lenient.

The danger looks to be The Mums for Gosden and Dettori who is going the right way but has to give the selection ten pounds.

2:25 William Hill May Hill Stakes (Group 2) (Fillies) Cl1 (2yo) 1m ITV4

This looks a fine renewal of this Group 2 over a mile and could produce a serious 2018 Oaks contender. A case could be made for most of these but I like two in particular. I was very impressed with Dark Rose Angel over C&D and she could be special and I will have a smaller bet on the improving, form in the book, Tajaanus.

TAJAANUS Clearly the best filly in the G3 7F Sweet Solera but this was an odd race as in The Dip the whole field was across the track and two lengths front to back. That would make me doubt the strength of the form but it has been franked, not at Group level, but Tajaanus looked physically ahead of her rivals and she had the run of the race up the Stands rail. As in Ireland there is no standout 2yo filly, Billesdon Brook, Nyaleti and Tajaanus are much of a muchness.

Hannon/SJames blogThis filly (Tajaanus) will love any give in the ground and stays very well too. I loved her attitude at Sandown last time when she won her Listed race and it’s hard to knock what she’s done so far.”

DARK ROSE ANGEL Simon Crisford trains this £60K yearling daughter of Dark Angel. Visually impressive winning over 8F C5 good to firm at Doncaster. “Out well, settled, led. Quickened, lengthened, to win by four lengths and two lengths.” Topspeed 66, form yet to be franked. On debut had been an educational fifth to Dathanna at Newmarket 7F C4 on Soft in a novice event.

RP Keith Melrose, Doncaster “It is probably unusual for a trainer in their third season to have had more than a third of their winners come from juveniles, but Simon Crisford is no ordinary trainer. Godolphin’s former racing manager has enjoyed excellent patronage but has more than repaid his investors so far. All he needs now is a Group horse for his yard to really break through, and it could just be that Doncaster winner Dark Rose Angel is the filly to do it. There were a couple of well-touted fillies from big yards against her on Town Moor and, while there is reason to think neither put their best foot forward, it would also be reasonable to say Dark Rose Angel could have been more emphatic had Paul Mulrennan asked her. A step up in grade beckons, maybe even back here for the May Hill at the St Leger meeting.”

3:00 DFS Park Hill Stakes (Group 2) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 (3yo+) 1m6f115y ITV4

Had Coronet pencilled in for this for a while but looks like she’ll take on the boys in the St. Leger itself. Ten go to post and can the 3yo’s make use of the ten pounds they receive from the older mares? I don’t think so and with the Lillie Langtry at Goodwood a reliable signpost for this race I’ll go with two who ran there before they both took part in the Ebor handicap, Dubka and Natural Scenery, just favouring the latter.

DUBKA She was my Ebor selection but I’m not sure she got the trip. This race won’t be as helter-skelter, she’ll relish this softer ground and was only beaten a neck in the 14F G3 Lillie Langtry. She has twice been second at G3 level and has won on Town Moor on Soft ground over 12F and has the valuable assistance of Ryan Moore.

NATURAL SCENERY Is she could enough to win a Group 2? Second in the Northumberland Plate, fourth in the Lillie Langtry and a desperately unlucky third in the Ebor when I put in my Ebor festival review, “The one “unlucky” horse in that messy part of the Ebor handicap around the 2F pole and Ed Greatrex ended up having to go round the houses to get a run and she flew to grab third. The handicapper has put her up three pounds OR104 to 107 and it will be interesting to see where Godolphin go with her. The obvious long term target would be back to the AW Stayers Championship at Lingfield next Easter, she was sent off 4/1F last April but had a troubled run there last year. Typical of Godolphin her current entries are “ambitious”.”

As for a bet and it’s 9/2 the field, it’s Natural Scenery to get a clear run and outstay them all with Jim Crowley doing the business for Godolphin.

3:35 Weatherbys Racing Bank £300,000 2-Y-O Stakes Cl2 (2yo) 6f111y ITV4

GREAT PROSPECTOR He was my next best bet for the whole York Ebor Festival when in my opinion he was a desperately unlucky second in the Sales race there. As I whinged in my Ebor review, “Right, now the valuable 6F Sales race. Tangled beat Great Prospector and Hey Jonesy a neck and half a length. The fourth Alba Power a length and a half away and a further three lengths to the fifth, the filly Darkanna. I am convinced Paul Hanagan has been blind-sided here! He straightens Great Prospector up a furlong out and to him it’s just the rapid and unfortunately high drawn Hey Jonesy he has to pick up and he feels quite happy about that so delays his attack and drifts towards the stands side. Meanwhile Tangled has burst between horses and nicked a length and Great Prospector now has to chase him down on the far side and fails by just a neck with the pair of them beating Hey Jonesy. The Official handicapper has given the first three marks of OR102 (up a stone since winning his nursery), OR105 and OR103 and that would have put all three right in the thick of the action in the G3 Acomb and with the time quicker than Threading’s victory in the Lowther half an hour later if the first five in the Sales race met the first four in the Acomb I would be all over Great Prospector.”

I am convinced this horse is Group 2 material, he has an extra half furlong here and he is drawn next door to Tangled this time. Not surprisingly Great Prospector heads the market and with Tangled and Alba Power next in I have Great Prospector as a good thing!! I think he will be even better over 7/8F and it wouldn’t surprise me if he wins this race he appears in G1 PRIX JEAN-LUC LAGARDERE (GRAND CRITERIUM) at Chantilly on Arc weekend!

4:05 crownhotel-bawtry.com Handicap Cl2 (3yo+ 0-105) 1m2f43y ATR

EUGINIO Thought this looked an ideal race for Euginio who has really strong form in the book and was looking forward to getting stuck into him at 6/1 and upwards. I can’t believe there is a field of just FIVE for a C2 handicap!

Euginio was second to the classy but currently AWOL Middle Kingdom at HQ on seasonal debut, won well at Sandown in this grade over today’s trip, a solid third to Frankuus in the G3 Rose of Lancaster when Frankuus nicked it off the front and most recently a hampered fifth to Thundering home back at Sandown. Hopefully the ground will keep drying as Euginio was withdrawn at the Goodwood Festival for “unsuitable ground”. Town Moor specialist Andrea Atzeni rides and I’m sweet on their chances but the iffy ground and a five runner field mean a reduced stake.

4:35 Breeders’ Series EBF Fillies’ Handicap Cl2 (3yo+ 0-100) 1m3f197y ATR

No play. Now down to just six runners I just can’t have any enthusiasm for the contest with no Notebook/Radar entries.

 

Wednesday

Doncaster 2.20           SHABAABY                  1st 13/8           Two star** win          @15/8 Lad+Coral

Travelled easily on the ground (Favourite Demons Rock didn’t), led two out and hacked up. John Kirkup ran on to be a distant, seven length, second and we open the Festival with a 1-2, £8.53 sfc.

Doncaster 2.50           GUZMAN                    4th 8/1                         One star*each way    @ 9/1 general

Probably just needs to grow up mentally. Still too keen early, even in the hood, one pace final furlong, should have grabbed third. Maybe the ground wasn’t ideal, stays firmly on the radar! BHA Stewards “ Following the race, the Veterinary Officer reported that GUZMAN, placed fourth, and TOOMER, unplaced, had both lost right fore shoes”

Doncaster 4.20           HYDE PARK                 5th 11/2           One star* win            @13/2 BF +PP

Every chance 2F out but one pace. Winner, Lahore, clearly useful.

Doncaster 4.20           SIX STRINGS               7th 6/1             One star* win            @ 8/1 general

Lost race in first two furlongs when just didn’t settle and although every chance 2F out fuel gauge was on red! Better ground, bigger field? Winner, Lahore, clearly useful.

Doncaster 4.50           MIRAGE DANCER       4th 11/10F       Two star** win          @15/8 BF+Coral 15p in £ R4

Small field nightmare! Oisin Murphy may not be “strong enough” but here he’s done Ryan Moore up like a kipper!

(8 stars out – 5.75 stars back)