Posted Saturday 10.45am
Good morning everyone. I am afraid the ground and the weather and the fact this is the third week of October have raised too may doubts for serious punting! How many horses are tip top, spot on for today? Jockeyship could be key!
Looks like it’s SOFT and we will have to stick to that! Wind may be a bigger issue than the rain.
OFFICIAL GOING Soft (GoingStick: Straight: 6.6, Round: 5.4 on Saturday at 08:15)
Stalls: Straight Course: Centre Round Course: Inside
Weather 3mm rain overnight to 6.30am Saturday. Becoming windy with blustery showers today.
No Lucky 15 and just a couple of Star selections but we will have a go at the placepot!
May I remind you that races 2-6 are Group 1, race 1 is Group 2 but Group 1 in all but name and surely it is Group 1 form we should be concentrating on! The handicap is a belter, it’s over the straight mile but the first five furlongs are on the far side “half” of the course then it’s the whole width?
Ascot 3.50 POETS WORD Two star** win @ 7/1 general
Ascot 4.30 QASSEM One star* each way @ 16/1 general 12345 1/5
Ascot 4.30 WITHERNSEA One star* each way @ 33/1 Coral 28/1 general 12345 1/5
Placepot (64 bets @20p = £12.80)
Leg 1- 7 & 13
Leg 2- 4 & 12
Leg 3- 7 & 9
Leg 4- 4 & 12
Leg 5- 4 & 9
Leg 6- 18 & 19
and here is why
Ascot 3.50 POETS WORD I think that Sir Michael Stoute has been itching to get this horse into Group 1 company but the yards Ulysses success kept it on hold, ran excellently in the Irish version and I think this has been THE target. Flying on the gallops.
Ascot 4.30 QASSEM After his run at York’s Ebor Festival I blogged “Over the winter he was gelded, pretty big shout for a €300K yearling, and this season has been fifth in a York 10½F C2 handicap OR94, won at Chelmsford in C2, OR93, dropped again back to a mile and second to Flaming Spear in the C2 8F Clipper Logistics at the York Ebor Festival off OR98. The last run was terrific as he was in the van throughout, the handicapper has put him up just one pound OR99. Why is this horse screaming Balmoral to me? That is the £150K 8F handicap on Champions Day, Ascot October 21st! Can’t desert him now!
Ascot 4.30 WITHERNSEA 8F on Soft ground in a C2 handicap, Hanagan riding. Ideal conditions, third to Stamp Hill at Ascot over 7F and 4th in the BetFred Mile both with cut in the ground.
Leg 1- Order of St. George, two miles on Soft ground, solid Ascot form and he’s Group 1 proven. Just can’t seem him out of the first three. Stradivarius this seasons 3yo’s have been good sprinters, good stayers and Enable. This is probably the best of the stayers, 3rd in Group 1 St.Leger, won the Queens Vase at Ascot and beat Big Orange in the Goodwood Cup on Soft ground.
Leg 2- Librisa Breeze Promised myself I would back this horse as soon as I could get double figures in a 6F Group 1, loves Soft ground, Ascot form, he is the ultra hold-up horse so hold on tight! Quiet Reflection a filly who is fresh, loves the ground, has Ascot C&D Group 1 form and Karl Burke could currently win the Eurovision Song Contest such is his form!
Leg 3- Coronet won the Ribblesdale over C&D, Gosden is a star with his fillies and guaranteed to stay, ground the issue? Hydrangea Group 1 filly and the vibes from Ballydoyle are strong.
Leg 4- Ribchester simply the best miler in Europe in my opinion. Persuasive real improving filly for the man Gosden again.
Leg 5- Poets Word (See above)
Cracksman desperately needs to lose his bridesmaid tag in Group 1’s for his stud prospects. Won’t be here but I can’t see how he is out of the frame
Leg 6- Qassem (See above) & Withernsea (See above)
The French couldn’t win in France so why in England? Tactically inexperienced and inept jockeys, Peslier excepted?