Quick on the draw?
I don’t know how many of you saw the article by James Willoughby in the Racing Post, “Biggest bias comes from reactions of jockeys and trainers”. He analysed the Hunt Cup, the Britannia and the Wokingham by comparing RPR performance figures with the draw, highly technical but there were clearly horses who seemed to buck the trend, i.e running well from a “poor” draw.
Wednesday – Hunt Cup
MASTER THE WORLD Just doesn’t win as often as he should do, twice in thirty five runs since his two year old days. However from stall 8 in the Hunt Cup he drifted across to the stands side and stayed on well in the final furlong. Second last season in the BetFred Mile at Goodwood last season and supposedly that will be his next race. His win ratio puts me off backing the cheek-pieced 6yo as a single but definitely one for the placepot and forecasts/tricasts if you play the exotics. (David Elsworth)
ELLEVAL Drops to OR99 but a horse who has won over half a million pounds, winning just once, but by placing in those valuable Meydan handicaps over the winter. Considering he was drawn 3 in the Hunt Cup he has drifted three-quarters of the way across to the stands side before making his run down the centre, the slowest part of the course, but rattled home for tenth only five lengths off the winner. If he rocked up in an 8F 0-100 handicap at a top Irish course such as Leopardstown or The Curragh would be of interest. Has an entry in the 9F G3 Meld Stakes. (David Marnane)
AFAAK OR92. Highlighted by Willoughby as clearly outruns his draw. The more I look at this race the more wrong Jim Crowley gets! Drawn 10 and remember the first three home came from 3, 1 and 7, Crowley after a furlong decides to join the stands side group but races down the slowest middle, eventually finding some cover, then finishes well to be third in the stands side group. There is a 0-100 3yo mile handicap at Newmarket on July Cup day that could have his name on it. (Charles Hills)
LESHLAA OR103 Mile on Good ground or better looks ideal and the more I look at this race the more he looks the moral winner! Raced every yard on the slowest part of the course, he showed a nice turn of foot from the two furlong pole and was a couple clear running to the line but simply on the “wrong” side. In the last twenty yards he was pipped by the rapidly finishing Indian Dandy but Leshlaa was coasting home. Has entries in the 10F John Smiths at York and the BetFred Mile at Goodwood. (Saeed bin Suroor)
Saturday – Wokingham
The Wokingham did split into two races sadly won by the far side.
DANZENO OR104 Difficult to evaluate as he rarely runs a bad race but just doesn’t win any! In the Wokingham he was in the right group having moved from stall 14 to the far side and raced without much cover but found nothing on the run to the line. Has been rated as high as OR115 and hard to know when to back him? Hasn’t won for approaching two years, his last handicap win was off OR90 and he’s been placed at Listed level. Take him on! (Michael Appleby)
NORMANDY BARRIERE OR100 Ascot, 6F, quick ground and this horse just has to be a player. Solid run here but done by the draw. (Nigel Tinkler)
RAUCOUS OR104 William Haggas had a frustrating week epitomised by this chap. Having secured the services of the peerless Ryan Moore and wearing blinkers for the first time Raucous was backed in to 11/2 favourite. As expected he was held up and from 2F out every avenue he went down was closed up and when he did get room he flew home to grab third. Sadly that was on the slower side and he finished eighth overall! The handicapper has dropped him a pound to OR104 and you would have to think the gelding will be back for the Stewards Cup on August 5th at Goodwood where he was third last year off two pounds lower as a 3yo. He has a very interesting entry in the Gigaset International handicap back at Ascot on July 29th which is over the straight 7F! (William Haggas)
CAPTAIN COLBY OR98 Fell out of the stalls, raced on the wrong side, hasn’t had a race! Handicapper has dropped him three pounds to his last winning mark OR95. Odd horse this in that his two best runs last season were both over the 5 ½ F trip in the Symphony Stakes at York in August and the Portland Handicap at Doncaster in September which he won of course off this mark. Looks like Ed Walker has set him up nicely again for 2017. The booking of William Buick would seem an important indicator of intent! (Ed Walker)