Royal Ascot Day 4 Friday June 23rd

Thursday 6.30pm

Couldn’t fault the racing today. A winner a day keeps the bank manager at bay! Spencer on the straight course again! Tomorrow’s card doesn’t look punter friendly with no value in the Commonwealth Cup and Winter odds on in the Coronation but we’ll give the other four a go!

Fridays Lucky 15

Don’t go crazy, not my strongest selections of the week, possible each way?

Royal Ascot 2.30                    BLACK SAILS                           10/1 general

Royal Ascot 3.05                    CRYSTAL OCEAN                        11/4 general

Royal Ascot 5.00                    COUNT OCTAVE                     11/1 Ladbrokes 10/1 Coral 7/1 WH!!

Royal Ascot 5.35                    WADIGOR                               13/2 BetFred + PP

and here’s why

Royal Ascot 2.30                    BLACK SAILS               The filly I’m attracted to is the Qatar Racing owned, Ger Lyons trained Black Sails. She beat the boys at the Curragh and she wouldn’t be without a chance in the Coventry. She is a long and rangy daughter of Lope de Vega and I can’t see her having a problem with the ground or the trip and she looked very professional.

Royal Ascot 3.05                    CRYSTAL OCEAN           Everything points to Crystal Ocean for me. Strong in the market, Sir Michael Stoute trained, middle draw, son of Sea the Stars who will like the ground.

Royal Ascot 5.00                    COUNT OCTAVE         Andrew Balding said in his Racing Post stable tour that Count Octave “could be one for the Queens Vase”. My interest was aroused as Count Octave is a son of Frankel no less but suited to 14F!? Drawn 3, the boy Murphy is riding with confidence, solid form last time when fifth to Venice Beach in the Queens Vase.

Royal Ascot 5.35                    WADIGOR                   4yo, won last time out, on the improve, shouldn’t be involved in the early scrimmaging on the inside, SDS rides. I’m going for Wadigor. Unbeaten son of Champs Elysses who looks to relish trip and ground.

Thursdays Lucky 15

Another day, another win. £28 for our £15

Royal Ascot 2.00                    McERIN                                   7th 13/2JF        (5/1 PP 9/2 general)

Rapid but didn’t stay 5F! Market spoke volumes.

Royal Ascot 3.05                    IRISHCORRESPONDENT            5th 6/1                             (6/1 WH and PP)

Never in the right place. Got no run in the straight.

Royal Ascot 3.40                    CORONET                               1st 9/1             (15/2 PP 17/1 general)

Great run, loves the ground, stays the trip, loads of horse. St Leger player or even the Arc.

Royal Ascot 5.00                    CITY OF JOY                            10th 8/1           (10/1 WH + Coral)

Sorry Ryan but you went the wrong way and that after saying the pace was far side after winning the first race on that side. Troubled run but kept on.

Thursday Recommended single bets

15 stars out, 24.5 stars in.

2.30 McErin One star* win @ 9/2 general                                   7th  13/2JF

Rapid but didn’t stay 5F! Market spoke volumes.

3.05 Mirage Dancer One star* win @ 4/1 general.                            3rd 7/1

Considering he doubled in price, great run and more to come probably over further.

3.05 Irishcorrespondent two star win @ 6/1 general                      5th 6/1

Never in the right place. Got no run in the straight.

3.40 Coronet two star** win @ 15/2 with PP                           1st 9/1

Great run, loves the ground, stays the trip, loads of horse. St Leger player or even the Arc.

4.20 Quest for More One star* each way 16/1 123 1/5 selection 12th 25/1

Big Orange broke his heart. Faded turning for home.

5.00 City of Joy is a three*** star win @ 10/1 WH + Coral         10th 8/1

Sorry Ryan but you went the wrong way and that after saying the pace was far side after winning the first race on that side. Troubled run but kept on.

5.00 Keyser Soze one star* win @ 10/1                                                  26th 8/1

Travelled too well. None of that rocket finish. Out of his depth perhaps better on sand.

5.00 Afaak one star* win @ 16/1 general                                            DH7th 8/1

Every chance, will win again.

5.35 Drochaid one star* e/w @ 14/1                                       4th 14/1

Needed to be further up the field, stayed on well, not a lot of running room

 

Friday Recommended single bets

2.30 Black Sails            One star* each way @ 10/1 general

3.05 Crystal Ocean      Two star** win @ 11/4 general

5.00 Count Octave      One star* each way @ 11/1 Ladbrokes 10/1 Coral 7/1 WH!!

5.35 Wadigor              Two star* win @ 13/2 BetFred + PP

 

and here’s why

 

Friday 2.30pm Albany Stakes G3 2yo fillies 6F

This is the blog from a few days ago, “POSITIVES Won a maiden last time out. Had just one career start. Trained by Mick Channon/Jeremy Noseda Sandown form    NEGATIVES Failed to contest a maiden last time out

This one looks harder to solve than the boys race, the Coventry. Jessica Harrington (see above) has the market leader in the enormous, unbeaten in two, Alpha Centauri (9/4 tops PP) and Wesley Ward has the second favourite in Fairyland, a Scat Daddy filly owned by Coolmore.

Alpha Centauri has won both her races very easily, beating Actress (20/1) both times, by 2½ and then 5 lengths. Could be the real deal as the good big’un beats the good little’uns but the filly I’m attracted to is the Qatar Racing owned, Ger Lyons trained Black Sails. She beat the boys at the Curragh and she wouldn’t be without a chance in the Coventry. She is a long and rangy daughter of Lope de Vega and I can’t see her having a problem with the ground or the trip and she looked very professional. Richard Hannon is very excited by his €305K daughter of Kodiac, Natural, and she is also owned by Qatar Racing. She won a 6½F maiden at Doncaster on Soft ground when well supported on debut.

The bet is Black Sails one star* win @ 14/1 general. We may go in again each way when she’s a confirmed runner.”

Friday 3.05 Edward VII Stakes G2 12F 3yo colts & geldings

Just about all these are on my 3yo radar! As I mentioned in my Hampton Court report for Thursday my Derby horses Ante Post were Mirage Dancer and Sir John Lavery and the latter runs here. Like Mirage Dancer, Sir John Lavery is very much a work in progress also and this may well be a race too soon.

Having watched the Wolferton and the Ribblesdale don’t like the look of those inside three stalls. Messy and get stuck for a run. So what do the Stats say:

POSITIVES

The favourite or second-favourite Contested a recognised Derby Trial  Yet to win over 1m4f+

Trained by Sir Michael Stoute, by Saeed Bin Suroor or Mark Johnston Yet to win a Group race

NEGATIVES

Ran well in the Derby Yet to win this season Irish-trained contenders

Everything points to Crystal Ocean for me. Strong in the market, Sir Michael Stoute trained, middle draw, son of Sea the Stars who will like the ground.

Friday 3.40pm Commonwealth Cup G1 6F 3yo

A race for 3yo flying machines and this is a strong renewal.

The blog a week ago “3yo sprinters, probably the hardest category to win with. This is the most difficult of the five to find a selection at a price as Caravaggio, Blue Point and Harry Angel are most likely to fill the first three paying places, indeed it’s 12/1 bar the three.

Could the fillies gate-crash the party? Lady Aurelia isn’t in the Kings Stand, is she coming here? #FantasticMrFahey has the flying Frankel filly and if stepping back to 6F and sprinting saw her return to her G2 Lowther win she would be over priced at the 25/1 PP are currently offering. Big ask.

So can’t back Caravaggio but right now I can’t oppose him.”

Queen Kindly isn’t there but the three main protagonists are. My views haven’t changed. Probably put two of the three in the place-pot and maybe stick O’Briens other one, Intelligence Cross, in the tipping comp’s.

Friday 4.20pm Coronation Stakes G1 8F 3yo fillies

Blogged over a week ago, “If Winter strolls in here to collect her third Group 1 of the season having strolled the two Guineas and David Wachman says he has no regrets at packing in, I simply don’t believe him. So looking to oppose Winter you have to look outside those two 1000 Guineas. Indeed I see that the fourth at Newmarket, Talaayeb, and as low as 12/1 for the Coronation Stakes, runs in a Listed 10F contest at Newbury tomorrow (Thursday).

The man with the fillies this season has been John Gosden and surely he trains the only viable alternative in Nell Gwyn winner Dabayh. She’s been effective on quick ground, looks like this extra furlong will help and still has improvement in her. Taking 8/1 general 123 1/5 on Dabayh now seems a bet to nothing as I can see this race cutting up badly.”

Quite happy with that. Put them both in the placepot.

Friday 5.00pm Queens Vase G2 3yo 14F

This is a new trip in 2017 having dropped two furlongs from the two miles previously. Interesting stalls position, almost on the finishing post! Low draw must help. Stats won’t mean a lot so I’ll go for ‘a man with a plan’. Andrew Balding said in his Racing Post stable tour that Count Octave “could be one for the Queens Vase”. My interest was aroused as Count Octave is a son of Frankel no less but suited to 14F!? Drawn 3, the boy Murphy is riding with confidence, solid form last time when fifth to Venice Beach in the Queens Vase.

Another host of Notebook 3yo’s here and I’ll be watching Fierce Impact, Stradivarius and Time to Study (main danger) but hopefully on the replays!

Friday 5.35pm Duke of Edinburgh Handicap 12F 3yo

Has to be top of the market and I must have changed my mind a dozen times here.

4yo, won last time out, on the improve, shouldn’t be involved in the early scrimmaging on the inside, SDS rides. I’m going for Wadigor. Unbeaten son of Champs Elysses who looks to relish trip and ground.

The other two considered were Mainstream for HM Queen/Stoute/Moore but with a hood on and form figures of 3222-3 I just think he keeps a bit for himself! The other is Appeared for the Postponed connections, as is the selection, with stable jockey on and I’m sure Roger Varian said he wanted to bring this C&D winner back for the two furlong shorter Wolferton on Saturday. 5yo and up another ten pounds.

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