Couldn’t touch them today, not a sniff. Deep in the poo and along comes that genius of a man Jamie Spencer and does exactly what this blog wanted him to do. Jamie Spencer take a bow. I honestly believe you could run the first five races today again, same conditions, in a month’s time and get five different results. Would love to see the ‘Jockeys’ take on the ‘Eggheads’! Not the brightest bunch. Surely they discuss tactics, visualise a race?
Thursdays Lucky 15
On the nose today.
Royal Ascot 2.00 McERIN 5/1 PP 9/2 general
Royal Ascot 3.05 IRISHCORRESPONDENT 6/1 WH and PP
Royal Ascot 3.40 CORONET 15/2 PP 17/1 general
Royal Ascot 5.00 CITY OF JOY 10/1 WH + Coral
and here’s why
Royal Ascot 2.00 McERIN What I’ve seen of McErin on line I’m happy to back him at 4/1. Either Wesley Ward is a midget or this a big well-built lad with some attitude. His work on the grass at Keeneland was fine, he seems to move easily. Effortless victory on his one run on the dirt at Keeneland. After the 5.35 yesterday I’m a big Wesley Ward fan.
Royal Ascot 3.05 IRISHCORRESPONDENT However having watched the race videos I think Irishcorrespondent is crying out for 10F on fast ground and Mike Halford’s Teofilio colt was a staying on third in the G1 Irish 2000 Guineas and has his conditions here in a G3. That was his third start as a 3yo having won his first two easily by a combined eight lengths not having got to the course as a 2yo.
Royal Ascot 3.40 CORONET She looks the one to me. 12f will be ideal for this daughter of Dubawi as will the quick ground and her two runs this season have been in Group 1’s on unsuitable Soft ground and plenty to like about her fifth in the Oaks and I think she can bridge the five lengths she was behind Alluringly with conditions in her favour.
Royal Ascot 5.00 CITY OF JOY City of Joy is the nap of the meeting. Stoute and Moore know the time of day and I think this race IS the plan. City of Joy was talented as a 2yo, last race was a G3, but wayward, gelded over the winter and has won mile handicaps at C3 and C2 level this season. He has a genuine turn of foot but seems to me to be one of those horses that Moore can put where he wants. May not beat some of these later in the season but I believe this is his day and from stall 17 Moore can pick and choose his route.
Wednesdays Lucky 15
If like me you did the Lucky 15 £1 each way we got back £77 for our £30!
Royal Ascot 2.30 DABAN 6th 7/1 (7/1 WH 13/2 general)
Market hinted it wasn’t to be her day. Every chance furlong out but not good enough.
Royal Ascot 4.20 MEKHTAAL 6th 17/2 (11/1 Ladbrokes 10/1 general)
If he had raced where Decorated Knight was he would have gone very close. Stuck behind the rag was not the place to be. C’est la vie!
Royal Ascot 5.00 FASTNET TEMPEST 9th 15/2 (10/1 general)
Royal Ascot 5.35 CON TE PARTIRO 1st 20/1 (12/1 general)
The blog said “the selection is mainly out of curiosity? Why has Wes Ward got a horse in a handicap? So she’s a speedball? No she’s a hold up filly? Best rider of the straight mile at Ascot especially on a hold up horse? For me Jamie Spencer and yes he has been booked! He rode her in work when going for that controversial spin at Ascot no less. She’s a daughter of Scat Daddy, wears a tongue tie for the first time and her name, Con Te Partiro.”
All hail Jamie Spencer. All hail simplesimonsays. God I love this game!
Recommended single bets
2.30 McErin One star* win @ 9/2 general
3.05 Mirage Dancer One star* win @ 4/1 general.
3.05 Irishcorrespondent two star win @ 6/1 general
3.40 Coronet two star** win @ 15/2 with PP
4.20 Quest for More One star* each way 16/1 123 1/5 selection
5.00 City of Joy is a three*** star win @ 10/1 WH + Coral
5.00 Keyser Soze one star* win @ 10/1
5.00 Afaak one star* win @ 16/1 general
and here’s why
Thursday 2.30pm Norfolk Stakes 2yo colts 5F
I shouldn’t be having a bet in this but if Karl Burkes Havana Grey, #FantasticMrFahey’s It Don’t Come Easy and Declan Carrolls Brocklesby winner Santry are the best we can muster then what I’ve seen of McErin on line I’m happy to back him at 4/1. Either Wesley Ward is a midget or this a big well-built lad with some attitude. His work on the grass at Keeneland was fine, he seems to move easily. Effortless victory on his one run on the dirt at Keeneland.
McErin One star* win @ 9/2 general
Thursday 3.05 Hampton Court Stakes G3 10F 3yo
I am keen follower of 3yo form having identified those with potential as 2yo’s and Mirage Dancer was one of two horses I had on my Derby list, the other is Sir John Lavery who is declared for Friday. In October 2016 Ryan Moore told Lord Grimthorpe, Juddmonte’s racing manager, after winning at Doncaster that Mirage Dancer was the best Frankel he had sat on. His only run since was at Chester this May when fourth in the Listed Dee stakes over 10F+ behind Cliffs of Moher after a considerate ride from Oisin Murphy. Sir Michael Stoute has an outstanding record in this race, the world’s best Ryan Moore rides and Mirage Dancer looks a serious player but is Mirage Dancer ready for this step up to Group 3.
Mirage Dancer One star* win @ 4/1 general.
However having watched the race videos I think Irishcorrespondent is crying out for 10F on fast ground and Mike Halford’s Teofilio colt was a staying on third in the G1 Irish 2000 Guineas and has his conditions here in a G3. That was his third start as a 3yo having won his first two easily by a combined eight lengths not having got to the course as a 2yo.
Irishcorrespondent two star win @ 5/1 general
Thursday 3.40pm Ribblesdale Stakes G2 12F 3yo
A race for 3yo fillies, first stop Clarehaven Stables and John Gosden and he saddles a third of the field, four of the twelve.
Astronomy’s Choice is a big girl and this race has always been her target. She won her only race as a two year old but was only third when odds on in the Pretty Polly at Newmarket behind Horseplay having looked very one paced. She’ll love this step up to 12F but probably needs more time to grow into that substantial frame. William Buick rides and they are drawn in stall 2.
Hertford Dancer is a surprise package, not very big but she went from second in a C5 handicap to winning the Listed Lingfield Oaks trial. I would be surprised were she good enough to win here. Jim Crowley rides and she is in stall 8.
Gracious Diana is a gorgeous looking filly who won her maiden over 10F at Newbury ‘comfortably’, then returning to the course on Soft ground was well behind Natavia in their Listed Oaks trial. Ascot’s fast ground should help and being out of a Generous mare should help her stay the 12F. She wears a first time tongue tie but still has ten pounds to find. Adam Kirby rides and they will come out of stall 8.
Coronet looks the one to me. 12f will be ideal for this daughter of Dubawi as will the quick ground and her two runs this season have been in Group 1’s on unsuitable Soft ground and plenty to like about her fifth in the Oaks and I think she can bridge the five lengths she was behind Alluringly with conditions in her favour.
Sir Michael Stoute’s Mori is bred in the absolute purple being by Frankel out of Midday, is progressive having won a Listed race at Goodwood last time but the great trainer has a poor record in the Ribblesdale and this race may just be one too soon for Mori. Pat Smullen does the steering.
Coronet two star** win @ 13/2 with WH
Thursday 4.20pm Gold Cup 4yo+ 20F
Since Order of St George won the Gold Cup on Soft ground last season he has won just two of his six starts although you can’t take anything away from his excellent third in the Arc de Triomphe! One of those defeats was over Ascots two miles on good ground on Champions Day when fourth behind Sheikhzayedroad, Quest for More and Simple Verse and although Order of St George is a class middle distance performer who stays this extreme trip, on quicker ground many will fancy their chances and top priced even money looks really skinny. Indeed that price is only available on the High Street with Irish bookmakers Paddy Power which I find revealing. Last season Order of St George beat a selection of “Cesarewitch” horses but this year looks like having two G1 St.Leger winners as well as winners at G2 & G3 level in opposition. With fast ground specialist Big Orange in the line-up this race will be run at a relentless gallop and class may not be enough as stamina will need to be copper bottomed.
So I’m after a guaranteed stayer, has won on Good to Firm and has a touch of class, Oh and is a double figure price!
Surely the key race is the Long Distance Cup last October over 16F at Ascot that I mentioned above. Order of St George may have had an excuse in fourth as that race was less than a fortnight after his huge run in the Arc, however I think a case can be made for the first two home. I think Simple Verse just lacks a kick running for the line. QUEST FOR MORE gets the nod over Sheikzayedroad because he’s a 50% bigger price but we are going to have to forgive his dismal last run behind Big Orange in the Henry II, a race I’m surprised he ran in considering what his trainer Roger Charlton, who is having an excellent 2017, said in his ATR stable tour back in April. “He surprises us each year and just kept on improving. A couple of years ago he was struggling to win off a mark of 92 and is now rated 117. I think Dubai just didn’t suit in the Dubai Gold Cup and he didn’t run any sort of race in the ground. The ground was soft and a bit uneasy under his feet and it didn’t suit. He is a fragile horse in that he doesn’t want too many races and races like the Ascot Gold Cup, which he would have run in last year if it had not gone soft, would be obvious targets for him. He is a fun horse and races like Ascot and the Goodwood Cup would be on his radar. He has a Group 1 penalty this year so there is no point in running in a Group 3 at Sandown.” So he will enjoy the quicker ground, he’s a 20F Group 1 winner, does he stay that extra half mile is the issue.
At a general 16/1 Quest for More is a one star* each way 123 1/5 selection, that says he will.
Wednesday 5.00pm 8F Britannia 3yo handicap
This is probably my favourite race of the five days. Full of horses on an upward curve, future winners all over the place and I expect I’ll have re-watched this race over a hundred times by seasons end. I have backed many of these, most successfully this season, but there are four that stand out for me including my NAP of the meeting.
Leaders Legacy for Godolphin has won both his starts this season, seeing it out well at Haydock last time and is clearly on the improve. Gerald Mosse rides but I’d be more concerned about stall 2.
Keyser Soze is the complete unknown as he did me a big favour beating Gymnaste in a C4 handicap on the AW at Kempton. Treat yourself to the race video as Keyser Soze showed an amazing turn of foot and connections have already won at the meeting with Rajasinghe.
Keyser Soze one star* win @
Afaak is definitely a Group horse in the making but is still a work in progress. Raw talent who won late on in a solid Doncaster handicap. Jim Crowley has chances from stall 10.
Afaak one star* win @
City of Joy is the nap of the meeting. Stoute and Moore know the time of day and I think this race IS the plan. City of Joy was talented as a 2yo, last race was a G3, but wayward, gelded over the winter and has won mile handicaps at C3 and C2 level this season. He has a genuine turn of foot but seems to me to be one of those horses that Moore can put where he wants. May not beat some of these later in the season but I believe this is his day and from stall 17 Moore can pick and choose his route.
City of Joy is a three*** star win @
Thursday 5.35pm King George V Handicap 12F 3yo
I’ve been looking at this race for a fortnight. Nothing off the notebook and even looking at the final declarations nothing appeals. Stick the second favourite and a Stoute horse in the placepot! I’ll pass and have an early night!