Lucky 15 Saturday May 6th

Friday 6.00pm This Guineas weekend has plenty of quality about it with a cornucopia of horses I want to back. Loads from the Notebook, #FantasticMrFahey has a few with real chances and Saturday evening we have a super sneaky special running! Indeed Doncaster’s Saturday evening looks like it will make or break my weekend punting fortunes.

Gutted! All that hard work, all that research, all that hope!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! New World Power was put in at 5/2 with PP. It lasted all of 11 minutes. Currently top priced 9/4 with PP, Ladbrokes and BetFred. That price is really skinny. Stick it in your multiples maybe but hard to recommend as a single that short.

Saturdays Lucky 15

Newmarket 1.50        NEXT STAGE                                    7/2PP 3/1 general

Thirsk 3.40                  MUTARAKEZ                                   12/1 Betfred 10/1 general

Doncaster 6.50           GALLIPOLI                               4/1 general

Doncaster 7.50           NEW WORLD POWER                        9/4 general

and here’s why

Newmarket 1.50        NEXT STAGE Rapid improver who is lightly raced. Won a mile handicap at the Craven meeting comfortably and although up a furlong and 6lbs not surprised that Godolphin think he can take this handicap off his current mark before this Dubawi colt, who cost £800K as a yearling, steps up further in trip and into Group company. Dolphin Vista is very much on my radar but as his trainer says in his blog on sportinglife.com “we’ll monitor the weather with the owner as he’s definitely better with a bit of cut.”

Thirsk 3.40                  MUTARAKEZ   Notebook handicapper “Late progress in the mile handicap behind Next Stage (Godolphin) having been held up but travelling well but the 7lb claimer couldn’t find a racing seam. Ex Hamdan Al Maktoum horse, sent to the sales and bought for £28K by Sam Sangster (Meehan’s landlord) before being passed on to the current owners. Has ALWAYS been trained by Meehan. Needs a mile on good ground, buried away, settled and a late surge. Has been as high as OR101, went off just 15/2 in the Britannia as a 3yo, but now just OR89. Still only a 5yo and has won three from nine on Turf.” Drawn widest in 18 which should ensure a price! Paul Mulrennan rides and he needs to find a position prior to leaving the back straight and then a seam in the home run.

Doncaster 6.50           GALLIPOLI  Think he may have found his trip and ground shouldn’t be an issue.

My Notebook says “Had hoped for lots more. C3 6F+? Put in my Unofficial Stable Tour back in April 2016 “This son of Dandy Man looks every inch a sprinter and won well, if a little wayward, on debut over 5F on Town Moor before running on well to be 4th in a C2 novice stakes around a tricky Beverley in late May. Not seen since, #FantasticMrFahey reasoning “He has always been a big horse and we’ve given him time to fill into his frame. Gallipoli is a work in progress but he has done very well over the winter.” Began his 3yo campaign in a C3 6F at Doncaster. Bit keen early then Tony Hamilton found every cul-de-sac available. Then ran well in a serious C2 3yo 6F handicap at Newmarket (Mr Lupton was third!!). Dropped to C3 6F at Beverley Hamilton just couldn’t get the clean run up the rail when he wanted it but rattled home beaten just a neck. Stepped up to 7F at Chester and didn’t stay! Not seen since 25th June 2016.”

Reappeared in December on the AW at Lingfield and kept on in a C3 7F handicap, then this April back on Turf Paul Hanagan got him up in a C4 Leicester 7F handicap off OR86, seeing his race out well. He’s up 3lb here to OR89 and David Nolan takes over in the saddle. If he has now strengthened up he is probably still well handicapped.

#FantasticMrFahey says Gallipoli is progressive and a horse I’ve always liked. He got it all together to win at Leicester last time and while he had been a hard horse to train, having been weak, he’s a lot stronger now. I think he’ll run a big race in the Water Aid Handicap.” That’s good enough for me!

Doncaster 7.50           NEW WORLD POWER            Some of you may already have seen these words by e-mail earlier today! This horse is bred in the purple by Japanese super sire, Deep Impact, out of Listen, Sadlers Well mare, who was second in the G1 Moyglare and won the G1 Ascot Fillies mile. NWP is owned by Qatar Racing Limited, a fact that is going to prove hugely relevant.

The form book, Racing Post on-line, says that he didn’t run as a 2yo but as a 3yo when trained by Roger Varian he ran in three maidens, was a beaten favourite in the last two, and has since moved to the Simcock yard and goes handicapping off OR81.

On debut he was an 8L staying on second to no less than Ulysses over 10F on Good to Soft at Newbury. He was then a one pace third behind Autocratic at Sandown over 10F on Good to firm and finally a disappointing 5th in a C5 10F maiden at Salisbury on Good to Soft again looking one paced.

David Simcock in his recent Racing Post Stable Tour he said about NWP “New horse to us, a good galloper who starts at the right end of the handicap. We’ll find out if he stays and hopefully go down that route with him.”

So why all the excitement? Well courtesy of Sandown Park I received a tweet showing the finish of a Charity Flat race ran at Cheltenham over 1m5f during their April meeting. It shows a horse overtaking about a dozen others up the hill but finishing second. The jockey was Sheikh Fahad Al-Thani. He owns Qatar Racing. The horse was NWP. This is the same Sheikh Fahad Al-Thani that Gordon Elliott tweeted about “Gordon Elliott Racing 24 October 2016 • Labaik – a runaway winner of the Corinthian Challenge Charity Race at Leopardstown yesterday under Sheikh Fahad Al Thani.” Yes that Labaik! The Sheikh got him to start!

So we know NWP HAS had a run this season. If you stay on up the Cheltenham hill over 13F you should stay 14F at Doncaster. As a hold up horse there is no better man to ride him than Spencer, on whom the Sheikh clearly models himself!! The horse that finished 11th in that Charity race was Miss Inga Sock who won a C6 handicap at Brighton earlier this week.

Here is the Sandown Park link https://twitter.com/CheltenhamRaces/status/855474859714912260

Thursdays Lucky 15

Now that’s more like it. Three winners and a fourth beaten less than a couple of lengths! If you were on at SP then your £1 Lucky 15 returned £71.19. If you got on at recommended top prices the night before your return was £117.40. Personally I got two at 2/1 and a 9/2 with a 10p in the £ Rule 4 that returned £95.80! Happy days.

The pessimists among you will have noticed that Battered winning as well would have made it a £750+ ticket.

Lingfield 2.10              MUKALEL                                          1st 6/4             (2/1 general)

Racing Post “Taken down early, chased leaders, went 2nd over 4f out, ridden to lead over 1f out, soon in command and pushed out final furlong”

Redcar 4.00                TEODORO                                       1st 7/2             (6/1 PP)

Racing Post “Dwelt and towards rear, headway over 4f out, chased leaders on inner over 2f out, not clear run and switched right to outer just over 1f out, soon ridden, driven inside final furlong, stayed on strongly to lead near line”

Lingfield 4.10              BATTERED                               4th 7/1             (7/1 Coral 6/1 general)

Racing Post “Held up in touch, not much room entering final 2f, switched left and headway over 1f out, chased leaders and edged left under pressure inside final furlong, kept on same pace final 100yds”

Redcar 4.30                GILGAMESH                            1st 7/4             (2/1 general)

Racing Post “Held up in touch, headway 2f out, switched left and ridden just over 1f out, driven inside final furlong, kept on well to lead towards finish”

 

#FantasticMrFahey sportinglife.com May 05 2017, 10:17

I’d love some rain at Newmarket for Dolphin Vista ahead of the Spring Lodge Stakes. He’s definitely a better horse on slower ground but ran well in the Lincoln. He’s stepping up in trip here which will suit but we’ll monitor the weather with the owner as he’s definitely better with a bit of cut.

Kimberella is in great order going into the Longholes Palace House Stakes. This is the next step for him following his win in the All-Weather Sprint Championship on Good Friday. It’s very competitive as they’ve all turned up – which is understandable as there’s nowhere else to go with a good five-furlong sprinter right now – but the trip and fast ground will be fine for our fellow. He’ll need a lifetime best to win this but goes there in great form, we’ve been very happy with him since Lingfield.

The Wagon Wheel is a filly we like and reappears in the Hot Streak Handicap. Her brother won a Listed race this week and we don’t feel she’s badly handicapped on her form at two. We’ll find out here though, as it’s a warm race.

Andok is a horse we really like. I was a bit disappointed when he was beaten on his final start at two – but it can happen to them all – and he is a progressive sort. We think he’s gone on again over the winter but he’ll need to have as the QIPCO Racing Welfare Handicap looks a tough heat.

We’re double handed in the opening totescoop6 Play For Just 2 Today Novice Auction Stakes at Thirsk. Danehill Desert and Guzman are both okay colts who will improve for the run and experience. I couldn’t split them going into it – we don’t have a first and second string here – but we have plenty of two-year-olds ready to run and this is a good place for this pair to start. If either won I’d be delighted.

Spring Offensive ran okay in the Irish Lincoln and has been kept back for the totepool Thirsk Hunt Cup Handicap since he’s best when fresh. On his best form he’d have a small chance.

Our final runners are all at Doncaster.

I’d imagine Tatlisu is as high as he’d want to be going into the Black And Veatch Handicap. He decides when he’s on a going day and I’d just worry if the ground was too fast that he might not let himself down on it. We’ll let him take his chance.

Bengali Boys and Sinaloa both run in the Mott MacDonald Bentley Novice Stakes. The former isn’t a star but did well to win from a bad draw at Beverley and there’s not a lot between him and his stablemate who was third on debut at Pontefract. It will be interesting to see how warm this race is – my pair won’t be winning Group races – but are fit and well and ready to go again.

Gallipoli is progressive and a horse I’ve always liked. He got it all together to win at Leicester last time and while he had been a hard horse to train, having been weak, he’s a lot stronger now. I think he’ll run a big race in the Water Aid Handicap.

In First Place will probably be outsider of the lot in the Stonbury Handicap. He is what he is, but is a good, hardy horse who never lets you down. He’ll run his race.

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