Lucky 15 February 15th

Wednesday 6pm Paddy Power have priced up the first three races at Clonmel tomorrow at 4/11, 8/11 and 4/9! That’s Run for Dave who I think is on a very tasty English OR of 137, so cosy win please Mr Kennedy! Kate Appleby Shoes an 8yo in a mare’s maiden hurdle for Willie and Ruby. The third is the most interesting being Chambord du Lys (Supreme Racing/Willie/Ruby), a mare in a 2m maiden hurdle against the boys. She should have won last time but propped at the last and Ruby was round her neck and still only got beaten three parts. Personally I would like her to hack up with a silky round of jumping and put her name forward for the mares Novice at Cheltenham and Airlie Beach (same owners) can take her rightful place in the Supreme!

Better quality horses at Kelso and Leicester but no quantity so I am going to have a go at finding four that could turn these odds on shots over. Small stakes tomorrow boys and girls! I’ve got updates from Warren Greatrex and JP O’Brien tacked on below plus the weights for this year’s Grand National! I spoil you, I really do!

 Thursday Lucky 15

Kelso 1.55                               SPANISH FLEET                       10/3 general    

Kelso 2.25                               ONE FOR HARRY                    9/2 general                       

Kelso 4.40                               SOME REIGN                          9/4 general                   

Leicester 3.45                         WINNER MASSAGOT             9/4 general       

and here’s why

Kelso 1.55                               SPANISH FLEET Good news for Ben Haslam, JP McManus is sending you a horse. Bad news is it’s Hawkhurst the definitive screw!We’ll take a chance that the canny Brian Hughes can conjure a run out of Spanish Fleet who is bred to just about get a mile on the Flat on Soft ground. The two at the head of the market look beatable. Vicenzo Mio looks hard to win with and Takingrisks isn’t the safest of conveyances.

Kelso 2.25                               ONE FOR HARRY Knockara Beau and I went to school together and I’m only days off a bus pass! Born Survivor is a gorgeous horse for the Skeltons but I promised myself I wouldn’t back him until he went chasing. So is it the C3 handicap winner trying to nick a C2 Conditions event or the really classy Cyrius darius having his second run back after a long break for injury, possible “bounce” factor? Price says it has to be the nine year old Gordon Richards handicapper!

Kelso 4.40                               SOME REIGN Two nice bumper winners take each other on in the finale and I was mightily impressed by Some Reign last time and once again Graham Lee makes the trek north for the one ride. The horse he beat by five lengths last time giving seven pounds has hacked up next time at Warwick.

Leicester 3.45                         WINNER MASSAGOT May be a bridesmaid but I thought his run at Doncaster suggested he was a winner waiting to happen in one of these Novices Limited Handicaps and I’m delighted to see Noel Fehily in the saddle, no one riding consistently better at the minute!

 

Wednesday Lucky 15

Blow out today, two seconds and a couple of nowhere! I’d put Thisonetime in your tracker, more to come on better ground and especially when he sees a fence!

Newcastle       2.20                 THISONETIME                         2nd 6/5F

Very leggy, scopey type. Prominent, novice at hurdles. Led by 4l turning for home, very slow ballooned second last, out-battled run in.       

Towcester       2.40                 WHAT A MARE                       5th 4/1

Prominent, too keen early, settled midfield, every chance but couldn’t go with them up the hill. 

Towcester       3.10                 YANMARE                               2nd 7/2

Drifted like a barge in the market. Kept wide course throughout but close enough two out but beats the favourite and second to a sixteen race maiden!    

Newcastle       4.20                 CLAN LEGEND                         3rd 3/1

Led, niggled turning for home, joined four out, faded.   

               

14.02.17 Warren Greatrex Stable Blog KEEPER HILL COULD HAVE AN EXCITING FUTURE

“Since I last did a blog the horses have really hit top form and are in rude health which is fantastic!!! We have had 7 winners in the last 10 days and have also had some really good placed horses. This is a real team effort to have them all running well at a really tough time of year with the weather. We tend to be a bit quiet in January and February but this year they have continued in good form. We were slow to get into our stride so I would think that has something to do with it and that the team have kept them healthy which is paramount!

Keeper Hill showed what a good horse he is and how exciting he could be in the future with a great win at Huntingdon in the Sydney Banks beating a good field. He is in at Cheltenham but my farther initial thoughts are that he may not be quite ready for it but I will discuss it further with his owners and see but Aintree may be better this season.

Petticoat Tails looks another exciting mare who can follow on from La Bague Au Roi and The Nipper from last season. She looks really smart and could be a real star in the future!

Lovenormoney put up a really tough performance at Uttoxeter in attrittional conditions to get off the mark under rules. He looks a thorough stayer who will make up into a lovely chaser.

On Saturday I was particularly happy with Western Ryder. He did not win the listed bumper at Newbury but put up a mighty performance giving a Nicky Henderson flying machine 21 lb!! He has booked his place at Cheltenham where I think he will perform even better!

News on other Cheltenham possibles.

Cole Harden is absolutely bouncing and is on course to try and regain his crown.

Black Thunder runs on Thursday at Kelso where he will try and qualify for the Foxhunters.

Paint the Clouds runs at Doncaster where he will try and win the race for the 3rd successive year. He is in serious form!!

Final Choice may run at Haydock on Saturday before heading to either the Fred Winter or Triumph.

Gavin is back from injury and is riding well! Just in time for the spring! Harry unfortunately will be out for a while longer.

Deserter, GVS Irportensa and Knight Bachelor have arrived or are about to arrive back for their spring and summer campaigns. They are looking great and are a very important part of the team as they can hopefully continue where others have done.

Let’s hope our hot streak can continue over the next couple of months as these are the most important!!

 

JP O’Brien update from weekend courtesy of Racing Post. Brian Sheerin 1:51PM, FEB 15 2017

Housesofparliament, Joseph O’Brien’s one-time ante-post favourite for the JCB Triumph Hurdle, is likely to miss Cheltenham and the rest of his juvenile campaign after suffering an injury when disappointing at Leopardstown on Sunday, his trainer has revealed. The St Leger third suffered a cut when finishing seventh of eight, some 43 lengths behind Mega Fortune, in the Grade 1 Spring Juvenile Hurdle. O’Brien, who also saddled the sixth, Bhutan, and last, Sword Fighter, said: “Housesofparliament is likely to be out of Cheltenham and probably the rest of the season. He suffered a nasty cut to his knee in the Grade 1 Spring Juvenile Hurdle at Leopardstown. I’m not sure as to when exactly the incident took place in the race. It’s quite a bad cut and we will need to give him a few weeks before re-examining it. Hopefully he will be ok but at this stage I would say it is likely that he will be out for the remainder of the season now. Bhutan was having just his first start over hurdles at Leopardstown and should learn from that but Sword Fighter was probably a little bit disappointing.” O’Brien still has Landofhopeandglory, whose price ranges from 10-1 to 20-1, for the Cheltenham Grade 1 and added: “Landofhopeandglory remains an exciting horse in the juvenile hurdle ranks but he will need to run once more before we make any Cheltenham plans for him. We plan on running him in a Grade 3 juvenile hurdle at Fairyhouse later this month and then make a plan from there.”

O’Brien also trains West Coast Time, who is fifth in the betting for the Weatherbys Champion Bumper. He chased home the ante-post favourite Carter McKay at Naas on Saturday and O’Brien revealed plans for him were also undecided: “Things are just a little bit up in the air with him at present,” he said. “I thought he ran well behind a very good horse in Carter McKay at Naas on Saturday but it was a very messy race and we are just not sure whether Cheltenham will be on the agenda or not for him now. We will make a decision closer to the time.”

 

15th Feb. 2017 GRAND NATIONAL WEIGHTS Sat. April 8th

With Outlander a non-runner horses down to 41 guaranteed a run and Chief Handicapper Phil Smith thinks from number 69 upwards have a chance of starting.

Number Horse                                   Weight Trainer

1              Outlander                            11-10 (166) Gordon Elliott IRE

2              Champagne West             11-09 Henry de Bromhead IRE

3              Empire Of Dirt                    11-08 Gordon Elliott IRE

4              Don Poli                                11-07 Gordon Elliott IRE

5              Carlingford Lough             11-06 John Kiely IRE

6              The Last Samuri                                 11-05 Kim Bailey

7              Alary                                      11-04 Colin Tizzard

8              Alelchi Inois                        11-03 Willie Mullins IRE

9              Minella Rocco                     11-02 Jonjo O’Neill

10           Devils Bride                         11-01 Henry de Bromhead IRE

11           More Of That                      11-01 (157) Jonjo O’Neill

12           Lord Scoundrel                  11-00 Gordon Elliott IRE

13           Perfect Candidate             11-00 Fergal O’Brien

14           Saphir Du Rheu                 11-00 Paul Nicholls

15           Shantou Flyer                     11-00 Rebecca Curtis

16           Road To Riches                  10-13 Noel Meade IRE

17           Sausalito Sunrise              10-13 Philip Hobbs

18           Carole’s Destrier                10-12 Neil Mulholland

19           Clarcam                                 10-12 Gordon Elliott IRE

20           Foxrock                                 10-12 Ted Walsh IRE

21           Roi Des Francs                    10-12 (154) Gordon Elliott IRE

22           Wonderful Charm             10-11 Paul Nicholls

23           Wounded Warrior            10-11 Noel Meade IRE

24           Blaklion                                10-10 Nigel Twiston-Davies

25           Drop Out Joe                      10-10 Charlie Longsdon

26           Tenor Nivernais                                 10-10 Venetia Williams

27           Tiger Roll                              10-10 Gordon Elliott IRE

28           A Toi Phil                              10-09 Gordon Elliott IRE

29           Le Mercurey                        10-09 Paul Nicholls

30           The Game Changer           10-09 Gordon Elliott IRE

31           Cause Of Causes                10-08 (150) Gordon Elliott IRE

32           Maggio                                 10-08 Patrick Griffin IRE

33           Regal Encore                       10-08 Anthony Honeyball

34           The Young Master            10-08 Neil Mulholland

35           Definitly Red                       10-07 Brian Ellison

36           Double Shuffle                   10-07 Tom George

37           Houblon Des Obeaux      10-07 Venetia Williams

38           Pleasant Company            10-07 Willie Mullins IRE

39           Ucello Conti                         10-07 Gordon Elliott IRE

40           Vieux Lion Rouge              10-07 David Pipe

 

41           Ballynagour                        10-06 (148) David Pipe

42           Highland Lodge                 10-06 James Moffatt

43           Junction Fourteen            10-06 Emma Lavelle

44           O’Faolains Boy                   10-06 Rebecca Curtis

45           One For Arthur                  10-06 Lucinda Russell

46           Vivaldi Collonges               10-06 Paul Nicholls

47           Bishops Road                     10-05 Kerry Lee

48           Lord Windermere             10-05 Jim Culloty IRE

49           Saint Are                              10-05 Tom George

50           Vicente                                 10-05 Paul Nicholls

51           Vics Canvas                         10-05 (147) Dermot McLoughlin IRE

52           Ziga Boy                               10-05 Alan King

53           Just A Par                             10-04 Paul Nicholls

54           Measureofmydreams      10-04 Noel Meade IRE

55           Raz De Maree                     10-04 Gavin Cromwell IRE

56           Stellar Notion                     10-04 Henry de Bromhead IRE

57           As De Mee                           10-03 Paul Nicholls

58           Cocktails At Dawn             10-03 Nicky Henderson

59           Pendra                                  10-03 Charlie Longsdon

60           Rogue Angel                       10-03 Mouse Morris IRE

61           Seventh Sky                        10-03 (145) Charlie Mann

62           Shutthefrontdoor            10-03 Jonjo O’Neill

63           Gas Line Boy                       10-02 Ian Williams

64           Goodtoknow                      10-02 Kerry Lee

65           The Romford Pele             10-02 Rebecca Curtis

66           Thunder And Roses         10-02 Mouse Morris IRE

67           Triolo D’Alene                    10-02 Nicky Henderson

68           Vieux Morvan                     10-02 (144) Isabelle Pacault FR

 

69           Doctor Harper                    10-01 David Pipe

70           Gallant Oscar                      10-01 Tony Martin IRE

71           La Vaticane                          10-01 (143) David Pipe

72           Bless The Wings                10-00 Gordon Elliott IRE

73           Tour Des Champs              10-00 Samuel Drinkwater

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