Lucky 15 January 24th

6.15pm We’ll take a stab at Ludlow for the Lucky 15. At Catterick Jaleo v Neitszche is an interesting clash in the C3 2m hurdle. Why oh why are the Skeltons running Two Taffs in the novice chase (1/4F)? Please don’t muck up that mark of OR139 (Chelt. Tuesday Nov. Hcp!). Meanwhile at Fairyhouse keep an eye on Chambord Du Lys in the mare’s maiden hurdle at 12.45.

Wednesday Lucky 15

Ludlow 1.45                OXWICH BAY                          13/8 general

Ludlow 2.15                AN POC AR BUILE                  14/1 general

Ludlow 2.50                SHAMBOUGG                         6/1 general

Ludlow 3.25                BIG WINDMILL                       6/1 PP 11/2 WH                          

and here’s why

Ludlow 1.45                OXWICH BAY              Let’s try to get the ticket started with a shortie. Simply he has the best form in the book. Last time out on hurdling debut at Ffos Las his third to Robinshill (now rated 141) reads well in the context of this race. Only seen once last season but that was in a C2 Bumper at Newbury suggesting he had been showing something at home. He had his sights lowered this season and won his bumper at Sedgefield. This half-brother of progressive chaser Pobbles Bay can open his hurdling account against some moderate inexperienced horses, especially the Henderson entry, and keep the Ewan Williams bandwagon rolling along.

Ludlow 2.15                AN POC AR BUILE      Eclectic collection of nine runners for this C4 3m 1f+ handicap chase. Hardly any have form over the trip, they range in age from 6 to 12, three of them pulled up last time, you get my drift? Favourite, Winged Crusader, doesn’t appeal as he won over shorter, fell the time before and he is up 10lbs. So I’m taking a big chance on the bottom weight to once again be coaxed home by the excellent Paul Moloney. An Poc ar Buile has only tried the trip in much better company and as an 8yo could still have improvement to come.

Ludlow 2.50                SHAMBOUGG             After winning his bumper at Warwick a year ago I would guess that trainer Philip Hobbs hadn’t earmarked a C4 3m Amateur Riders handicap at Ludlow! But after three lacklustre runs in reasonable novice hurdles he has a mark of just OR108 and that’s where Shambougg is right now. He wears first time blinkers’s and is ridden by Mr N.Lawton (7) who I know nothing about (I am looking!). It wouldn’t take too big a leap of faith to see Shambougg being competitive. The favourite is in form but a son of Daylami over 3m?

Ludlow 3.25                BIG WINDMILL           I love these novice limited handicaps where prospective chasers can run off their hurdle mark on their first go at chasing! One man who certainly farms these is Tom George with the assistance of the stable jockey and excellent horseman, Adrian Heskin. Big Windmill is a son of Stowaway and is already an Irish PtP winner and starts his chasing off just OR112 and his hurdling exploits suggest the basic 2m on some better ground, Good to Soft, will be fine.

 

Tuesday Lucky 15

OK if you got on early, not so clever if you didn’t with just the one winner.

Wetherby 2.00                       CAPTAIN MOWBRAY             9/2 general                        3rd 7/4F

Every chance 3 out. Slow horse, needs a fence.

Wetherby 2.30                       FINGERONTHESWITCH          10/3 PP 11/4 general     1st 13/8F

Outclassed these. In first time cheek-pieces didn’t know he had a race.

Wetherby 3.00                       ASK PADDY                             7/1 general                        5th 6/1

Travelled fine for three parts of the race, went out like a like a light at top of home straight.

Wetherby 4.00                       ROBBING THE PREY               3/1 general                        Fell 7/2

Disastrous error at first on far side, never competitive afterwards. Eventually fell at last. Fair play to the Pipe team despite looking immature the winner, Mr Big Shot, is a monster of horse. Time and a fence and he could be special.

Adam Norman, Paddock Watcher, “The last wasn’t a great maiden hurdle and Mr Big Shot didn’t need to be very good to take it. The huge animal can clearly gallop but the hurdles were getting in the way, and he could be one to take on in a stiffer contest as he’ll only fulfil his potential when sent chasing.”

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s